Reading ECVT? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ECVT free→Reading ECVT? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ECVT free→NYSEMaterialsSpecialty ChemicalsSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality cannot be assessed as the company was unprofitable over the past year. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, and it has a capital-friendly approach. Risk is moderate, while the sector backdrop is a headwind, with ECVT trading above typical compared to sector peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 16% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $12.96. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $13 ECVT trades at 19× p/e, below its 20× p/e peer median. Our $15 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 13% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 13%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Crisis) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Materials names rated strong grew net income 63% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=1093).
Over the trailing year it converted -2.33x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates, the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
9 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by M&A activity. Historically, Materials names rated neutral grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=272).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.17 → $0.19 (+11.0% / 30d). 1 raised, 0 cut, 4 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 75% of analysts rate Buy.
Market and fundamentals agree. Analysts are positioned bullishly on a fundamentally strong name.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$137.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$276.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,633.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: A change in confidence could indicate a shift in the company's outlook and performance.
Confirms one read:Confidence level increases from medium to high after Q2 earnings on August 6.
Confirms the other:Confidence level decreases from medium to low after Q2 earnings on August 6.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for ECVT yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 5, 2026, Ecovyst Inc. issued a press release announcing the reporting of its financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished with this Current Report on Form 8-K as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. The information in this Current Report on Form 8-K (including the exhibit attached hereto) shall not be deemed “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchang…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Specialty Chemicals.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
ECVT Ecovyst, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 100 of 100 | fair | moderate |
SHW Sherwin-Williams | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 67 of 100 | full | moderate |
ECL Ecolab | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 83 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
PPG PPG Industries | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 90 of 100 | fair | moderate |
LYB LyondellBasell | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 55 of 100 | — | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLB
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Ecovyst aims to achieve sales between $890 million and $970 million for the fiscal year 2026.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue grew from $143.1M in 2025-Q1 to $214.9M in 2026-Q1, indicating progress towards the $890M-$970M target for 2026. The trajectory shows delivering growth.
“The Company’s revised 2026 guidance is as follows: Sales of $890 million to $970 million.”
“The Company’s guidance for full year 2026 is as follows: Sales of $860 million to $940 million.”
Ecovyst plans capital expenditures between $80 million and $90 million for the fiscal year 2026.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. The company has consistently guided for capex of $80M-$90M in 2026. No specific capex figures for 2026-Q1 are provided, indicating limited progress visibility.
“The Company’s revised 2026 guidance is as follows: Capital expenditures of $80 million to $90 million.”
Ecovyst aims for adjusted free cash flow between $40 million and $55 million for the fiscal year 2026.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. The company has increased its lower bound guidance for adjusted free cash flow from $35M to $40M. However, specific cash flow figures for 2026-Q1 are not detailed, showing limited progress visibility.
“The Company’s revised 2026 guidance is as follows: Adjusted Free Cash Flow of $40 million to $55 million.”
Why it matters: If revenue grows, it may show that the materials sector is recovering.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth reported above 0% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth reported below 0% year over year.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On May 1, 2026, Ecovyst Inc. (the “Company”), through its wholly owned subsidiaries New Structure Subco Inc. (the “US Purchaser”) and EV Industrial Chemical Subsidiary Holdings Inc. (the “Canadian Purchaser” and, together with the US Purchaser, the “Purchasers”), entered into a Share Purchase Agreement (the “Purchase Agreement”) with INEOS Calabrian Holdings Limited (the “US Seller”) and INEOS Calabrian Canada Holdings Limited (the “Canadian Seller”…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 26, 2026 , Ecovyst Inc. issued a press release announcing the reporting of its financial results for the quarter and year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is furnished with this Current Report on Form 8-K as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. The information in this Current Report on Form 8-K (including the exhibit attached hereto) shall not be deemed “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the…
Completion of Acquisition or Disposition of Assets. On December 31, 2025, Ecovyst, Inc. ("Ecovyst" or the "Company") completed the previously announced sale of its Advanced Materials & Catalysts business to Technip Energies N.V. (the “Purchaser”), pursuant to a Stock Purchase Agreement (the “Purchase Agreement”), dated September 10, 2025, by and between Ecovyst Inc. and the Purchaser, for a purchase price of $556 million in cash, subject to certain adjustments specified therein, including for…
Triggering Events That Accelerate or Increase a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement. The closing of the Transaction discussed in
“The Company’s guidance for full year 2026 is as follows: Capital expenditures of $80 million to $90 million.”
“The Company’s guidance for full year 2026 is as follows: Adjusted Free Cash Flow of $35 million to $55 million.”