Reading EBS? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track EBS free→Reading EBS? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track EBS free→NYSEHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong. Earnings quality cannot be assessed since the company is unprofitable. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 73% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis), and the read is cheap, value-trap risk. This pattern suggests potential issues with earnings quality or financials. The read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $7.74. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $7.74 EBS trades at 8× p/e, below its 13× p/e peer median. Our $29 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 73% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about -17%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated strong grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=2344).
Over the trailing year it converted -17.21x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
9 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Health Care names rated neutral grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 50% for the rest of the cohort, n=842).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.11 → $0.11 (+0.0% / 30d). 0 raised, 0 cut, 1 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$172.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$553.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,432.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: The health care sector is slowing down. If revenue growth speeds up, it could help Emergent BioSolutions.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth is speeding up again. It is close to 10% or more.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth keeps slowing down. It is now below 5%.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
Advances: Maintain revenue guidance for 2026
Broader authorization could significantly boost revenue.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 30, 2026, Emergent BioSolutions Inc. (the "Company") issued a press release (the "Press Release") announcing its financial and operating results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the Press Release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K (this "Form 8-K") and is incorporated herein by reference.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Pharmaceuticals.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
EBS Emergent BioSolutions, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 88 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
LLY Lilly (Eli) | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 89 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
JNJ Johnson & Johnson | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 75 of 100 | expensive | low |
MRK Merck & Co. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 68 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
PFE Pfizer | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 63 of 100 | fair | low |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
The company aims to maintain its revenue guidance for the full year 2026 between $720 million and $760 million.
The company aims to maintain an adjusted gross margin percentage between 45% and 47% for the full year 2026.
The company has set a revenue target for Q2 2026 between $170 million and $185 million.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Term Loan Agreement On April 16, 2026, Emergent BioSolutions Inc. (the “Company”) entered into a Credit Agreement (the “Term Loan Agreement”) by and among the Company, the lenders from time to time party thereto, and OrbiMed Royalty & Credit Opportunities V, LP, as administrative agent (the “Term Loan Agent”). Jefferies Finance LLC served as sole lead arranger. The Term Loan Agreement provides for (i) a term loan (the “Initial Term Loan”) in an aggr…
Termination of a Material Definitive Agreement. On April 16, 2026, in connection with the Company’s entry into the Term Loan Agreement, the Company terminated its obligations under the Prior Credit Agreement.
Regulation FD Disclosure. On April 16, 2026, the Company issued a press release announcing entry into the Term Loan Agreement and the ABL Amendment. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. The information contained in this Item 7.01, including Exhibit 99.1, is being “furnished” and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange…
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation Under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The information contained in