Reading EAF? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track EAF free→Reading EAF? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track EAF free→NYSEIndustrialsElectrical Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and the company was unprofitable over the past year, so its earnings quality can't be assessed. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, and risk is elevated, with the sector backdrop presenting a headwind. Compared with sector peers, EAF is below typical. The read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 1 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $8.23. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $8.23 EAF trades at 0× p/s, below its 4× p/s peer median. Our $73 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 89% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about -12%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
No fragility gates fired.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated weak grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 62% for the rest of the cohort, n=3678).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.29x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
5 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=1113).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $-1.65 → $-1.65 (+0.0% / 30d). 0 raised, 0 cut, 1 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 0% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$389.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$877.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $7,361.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Management fell by 14.4 points (from 49.4 to 35.0).
As of June 15, 2026, the signal label changed to "mixed," indicating a shift in overall sentiment. The risk label also changed, moving from "high" to "elevated," suggesting a decrease in perceived risk.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: The industrial sector is getting older. If growth speeds up, it may help GrafTech.
Confirms:Revenue growth in the industrial sector rises above 5% year over year.
Disproves:Revenue growth in the industrial sector continues to decline or stays below 5%.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for EAF yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
No upside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
No downside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On May 29, 2026, GrafTech International Ltd. (the “ Company ”) entered into an Equity Distribution Agreement (the “ Equity Distribution Agreement ”) with Evercore Group L.L.C. (“ Evercore ”). Pursuant to the terms of the Equity Distribution Agreement, the Company may offer and sell through Evercore, from time to time and at its sole discretion, shares of the Company’s common stock, par value $0.01 per share (the “ Common Stock ”), having an aggregat…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Electrical Components & Equipment.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
EAF GrafTech International Ltd | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 14 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
ETN Eaton Corporation | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 67 of 100 | full | moderate |
VRT Vertiv | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 62 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
EMR Emerson Electric | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 63 of 100 | fair | moderate |
BE Bloom Energy Corp. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 46 of 100 | expensive | high |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
GrafTech is committed to maintaining disciplined capital and working capital management.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Despite the commitment to disciplined capital management, the company reported negative cash from operating activities of -$14.93M in 2026-Q1 and -$20.89M in 2025-Q4. Persistent statement, limited substantive delivery this quarter.
“we are also maintaining disciplined capital and working capital management”
“we are also maintaining disciplined capital and working capital management”
GrafTech anticipates full-year 2026 capital expenditures to be approximately $35 million.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. The company has maintained its capex guidance of $35M for 2026. However, the financials do not provide specific capex figures for 2026-Q1, making it difficult to assess progress. Recurring focus, narrow delivery so far.
“we continue to anticipate our full-year capital expenditures will be approximately $35 million”
GrafTech expects a year-over-year increase in sales volume of approximately 10% for 2026.
Newly stated in 2025-Q4. The company reported revenue of $125.1M in 2026-Q1, up from $116.46M in 2025-Q4, indicating some progress towards the sales volume increase target. However, the financials do not explicitly confirm a 10% volume increase. Limited progress.
“we expect a year-over-year increase in our sales volume of approximately 10%”
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 1, 2026, GrafTech International Ltd. issued a press release announcing its financial results for the three months ended March 31, 2026. A copy of this press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated herein by reference. This information, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed "filed" for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the "Exchange Act"), or otherwise subject to the liab…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 6, 2026, GrafTech International Ltd. issued a press release announcing its financial results for the fourth quarter and year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of this press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated herein by reference. This information, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed "filed" for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the "Exchange Act"), or otherwise…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On November 25, 2025, each of Michel Dumas and Anthony Taccone informed GrafTech International Ltd. (the “Company”) that he was resigning from the Board of Directors of the Company effective as of the close of business on December 31, 2025. Neither Mr. Dumas' nor Mr. Taccone's decision to resign is a result of any disagreement with the Company on a…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On October 24, 2025, GrafTech International Ltd. issued a press release announcing its financial results for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2025. A copy of this press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated herein by reference. This information, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed "filed" for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the "Exchange Act"), or otherwise s…
“we anticipate our full-year 2026 capital expenditures will be approximately $35 million”