Reading DCI? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track DCI free→Reading DCI? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track DCI free→NYSEIndustrialsSpecialty Industrial MachinerySnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality is fragile, indicating that reported profits may not be well-supported by cash. Management's recent track record has been neutral, and risk is moderate, while the sector backdrop presents a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 8% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. Key factors to watch include any guidance cuts from DCI and the performance of sector bellwethers like GEV, ETN, and PH. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $86.83. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $86 DCI trades at 22× p/e, below its 24× p/e peer median. Our $94 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Analysts: $91–$96. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 8% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 4%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated strong grew net income 69% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=3696).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.05x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated fragile grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=3333).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, the US dollar, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.17 → $1.12 (-3.6% / 30d). 0 raised, 3 cut, 6 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 22% of analysts rate Buy.
2 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 6.8% above current price.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$95.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$199.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,604.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: The Facet deal could help Donaldson make more money. Good integration is important.
Confirms:Look for news on closing the Facet deal and starting integration.
Disproves:Watch for any delays or problems with the deal or integration.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for DCI yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On June 2, 2026, Donaldson Company, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its results of operations for the quarter ended April 30, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$91.00 – $96.00 (median $91.00) · 4 analysts · as of 2026-06-04
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
DCI Donaldson Company | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 60 of 100 | fair | moderate |
PH Parker Hannifin | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 78 of 100 | full | moderate |
ITW Illinois Tool Works | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 89 of 100 | fair | moderate |
GWW W. W. Grainger | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 77 of 100 | full | moderate |
DOV Dover Corporation | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 63 of 100 | fair | low |
5 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by M&A activity. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=1113).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on delivering full-year record sales, adjusted operating margin, and adjusted earnings.
Target an adjusted operating margin between 15.8% and 16.2% for fiscal 2026.
Maintain capital expenditures between $60 million and $75 million for fiscal 2026.
Why it matters: Closing this deal will add significant sales and improve margins. It strengthens Donaldson's market position.
Confirms:The acquisition closes. It is reported in the Industrial Solutions segment in Q4.
Disproves:The acquisition does not close. This is due to regulatory issues or other delays.
Why it matters: Earnings results will provide insights on Donaldson's performance and market position. This could affect stock sentiment.
Confirms one read:Earnings per share (EPS) beats consensus estimates by more than 5%.
Confirms the other:EPS misses consensus estimates by more than 5%.
Why it matters: Better margins matter for reaching the company’s money goals for fiscal 2026.
Confirms:Operating margin is over 16.2% in Q4 of fiscal 2026.
Disproves:Operating margin falls below 15.8% in Q4 fiscal 2026.
Why it matters: If revenue growth picks up, it signals a potential recovery for Donaldson and its peers. This could improve investor sentiment.
Confirms:Three-year revenue growth in the industrials sector rises above 10%.
Disproves:Three-year revenue growth in the industrials sector stays below 8%.
Why it matters: Guidance for adjusted EPS will indicate if the company can meet its growth targets.
Confirms one read:Adjusted EPS guidance for Q4 fiscal 2026 exceeds $1.06.
Confirms the other:Adjusted EPS guidance for Q4 fiscal 2026 falls below $1.06.
Why it matters: Sales growth here is crucial after recent declines in this segment.
Confirms one read:Industrial Solutions segment sales grow year over year by more than 2%.
Confirms the other:Sales in the Industrial Solutions segment fell compared to last year.
Why it matters: The acquisition's performance will show if it adds value to Donaldson's portfolio.
Confirms:Facet contributes more than $30 million in sales in Q4.
Disproves:Facet contributes less than $25 million in sales in Q4.
Why it matters: More people filing for unemployment may show economic problems. This could lower demand for Donaldson's products.
Confirms:Unemployment claims rise above 300,000 for the week.
Disproves:Unemployment claims fall below 250,000 for the week.
Why it matters: Higher organic sales growth shows strong demand. It shows good execution in key markets.
Confirms:Organic sales growth reported above 3% for Q4.
Disproves:Organic sales growth is below 3%. This suggests weak demand.
Why it matters: A recovery in this area is key for overall sales growth and better profits.
Confirms:Aerospace and Defense sales grow year over year by more than 5%.
Disproves:Aerospace and Defense sales decline year over year by more than 5%.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On April 8, 2026, Donaldson Company, Inc. (the “Company”) entered into a Term Loan Credit Agreement (the “Agreement”), among the Company, certain lenders from time to time party to the Agreement (the “Lenders”), and Wells Fargo Bank, National Association, as administrative agent for the Lenders. The Agreement creates a new three-year committed, unsecured, delayed draw term loan credit facility in the amount of $400 million available to the Company (…
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. As described under
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 26, 2026, Donaldson Company, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its results of operations for the quarter ended January 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On January 29, 2026, Donaldson Company, Inc. (the “Company”) announced the appointment of Richard B. Lewis as the Company’s President and Chief Executive Officer, effective March 2, 2026. Mr. Lewis was also appointed to the Board of Directors, effective March 2, 2026. Mr. Lewis succeeds Tod E. Carpenter who, on January 28, 2026, gave notice of his…