Donaldson Company (DCI)

NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-10-23

$84.79-1.54%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Donaldson Company’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.2%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

4.83 → 4.84 EPS · FY ending Jul 31, 2028 · 6 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 6 to 6; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2027 · Q1
Revenue	—	1.02B
EPS	—	0.974
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	4.19B
EPS	$3.85–$3.98non-GAAP $4.22–$4.38GAAP	4.324
Life Sciences revenue growth	7%–11%	—
Revenue growth	5.5%–9.5%	—
FY 2028 · Annual
Revenue	—	4.39B
EPS	—	4.837

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Capex between $60M and $75M	A supporting condition in Donaldson Company's published investment case. The stated target is $60M-$75M capex.	Intact	Capex exceeds $75M significantly in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Capital expenditures were forecast between $60M and $75M for 2026, with actual purchases of property, plant and equipment at $67.4M in 2026, consistent with guidance. The trajectory shows disciplined capital allocation within the stated range. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Maintain free cash flow yield near 4%	Free cash flow stays strong around 90%.	Intact	Free cash flow yield falls below 3.5% in FY26	Free cash flow: $185M FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: >=4% free cash flow yield. Target and observation units differ. Source published Sep 25, 2026185,000,000 USD · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q4 · Period ending Jul 31, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q4. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Capital expenditures were forecast between $60M and $75M for 2026, with actual purchases of property, plant and equipment at $67.4M in 2026, consistent with guidance. The trajectory shows disciplined capital allocation within the stated range. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Increase operating margin to 15.8%-16.2%	A primary condition in Donaldson Company's published investment case. The stated target is 15.8%-16.2% operating margin.	Intact	Operating margin falls below 15.5% in FY26	Operating margin: 16.68% FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: 15.8%-16.2% operating margin. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Sep 25, 202616.67926 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q4 · Period ending Jul 31, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 56819947-08a8-42a1-a959-d0a02ffb6abb. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Operating margin improved from 13.4% in 2025 to 15.4% in 2026, reaching 16.7% in 2026-Q4. Management's guidance and actual results show delivery on margin expansion through operational improvements and expense leverage. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Achieve record sales with organic growth and Facet acquisition	Donaldson grows sales about 6% yearly, helped by the Facet acquisition.	Intact	YoY revenue growth falls below ~5.8% in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Fiscal 2026 sales grew from $3.69B in 2025 to $3.89B (+5.3%), and adjusted EPS increased from $3.68 to $3.98 (+8.2%). Management consistently emphasized record sales and EPS driven by organic growth and the Facet acquisition, delivering on this priority. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-07-31 · fmp

FY2028 EPS$4.84

Unavailable → $4.84 · observed estimates

FY2028 revenue$4.39B

Unavailable → $4.39B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-08-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-20	Unavailable	$4,357,936,419	3 / 5
2026-08-21	Unavailable	$4,357,936,419	3 / 5
2026-08-22	Unavailable	$4,357,936,419	3 / 5
2026-08-23	Unavailable	$4,357,936,419	3 / 5
2026-08-24	Unavailable	$4,357,936,419	3 / 5
2026-08-25	Unavailable	$4,357,936,419	3 / 5
2026-08-26	Unavailable	$4,357,936,419	3 / 5
2026-08-27	Unavailable	$4,357,936,419	3 / 5
2026-08-28	Unavailable	$4,357,936,419	3 / 5
2026-08-29	Unavailable	$4,377,912,682	4 / 5
2026-08-30	$4.85	$4,377,912,682	5 / 6
2026-08-31	$4.85	$4,377,912,682	5 / 6
2026-09-01	$4.86	$4,379,925,156	6 / 6
2026-09-02	$4.86	$4,379,925,156	6 / 6
2026-09-03	$4.86	$4,379,925,156	6 / 7
2026-09-04	$4.83	$4,370,210,870	6 / 7
2026-09-05	$4.83	$4,370,210,870	6 / 7
2026-09-06	$4.83	$4,370,210,870	6 / 7
2026-09-07	$4.83	$4,370,210,870	6 / 7
2026-09-08	$4.83	$4,370,210,870	6 / 7
2026-09-09	$4.83	$4,370,210,870	6 / 7
2026-09-10	$4.83	$4,370,210,870	6 / 7
2026-09-11	$4.83	$4,370,210,870	6 / 7
2026-09-12	$4.83	$4,370,210,870	6 / 7
2026-09-13	$4.83	$4,370,210,870	6 / 7
2026-09-14	$4.83	$4,370,210,870	6 / 7
2026-09-15	$4.83	$4,370,210,870	6 / 7
2026-09-16	$4.83	$4,370,210,870	6 / 7
2026-09-17	$4.83	$4,370,210,870	6 / 7
2026-09-18	$4.83	$4,370,210,870	6 / 7
2026-09-19	$4.83	$4,370,210,870	6 / 7
2026-09-20	$4.83	$4,391,525,333	6 / 7
2026-09-21	$4.83	$4,391,525,333	6 / 7
2026-09-22	$4.83	$4,391,525,333	6 / 7
2026-09-23	$4.83	$4,391,525,333	6 / 7
2026-09-24	$4.83	$4,391,525,333	6 / 7
2026-09-25	$4.83	$4,391,525,333	6 / 7
2026-09-26	$4.83	$4,391,525,333	6 / 7
2026-09-27	$4.83	$4,391,525,333	6 / 7
2026-09-28	$4.83	$4,391,525,333	6 / 7
2026-09-29	$4.83	$4,391,525,333	6 / 7
2026-09-30	$4.83	$4,391,525,333	6 / 7
2026-10-01	$4.84	$4,389,096,300	6 / 7
2026-10-02	$4.84	$4,389,096,300	6 / 7
2026-10-03	$4.84	$4,389,096,300	6 / 7
2026-10-04	$4.84	$4,389,096,300	6 / 7
2026-10-05	$4.84	$4,389,096,300	6 / 7
2026-10-06	$4.84	$4,389,096,300	6 / 7
2026-10-07	$4.84	$4,389,096,300	6 / 7
2026-10-08	$4.84	$4,389,096,300	6 / 7
2026-10-09	$4.84	$4,389,096,300	6 / 7
2026-10-10	$4.84	$4,389,096,300	6 / 7
2026-10-11	$4.84	$4,389,096,300	6 / 7
2026-10-12	$4.84	$4,389,096,300	6 / 7
2026-10-13	$4.84	$4,389,096,300	6 / 7
2026-10-14	$4.84	$4,389,096,300	6 / 7
2026-10-15	$4.84	$4,389,096,300	6 / 7
2026-10-16	$4.84	$4,389,096,300	6 / 7
2026-10-17	$4.84	$4,389,096,300	6 / 7
2026-10-18	$4.84	$4,389,096,300	6 / 7
2026-10-19	$4.84	$4,389,096,300	6 / 7
2026-10-20	$4.84	$4,389,096,300	6 / 7
2026-10-21	$4.84	$4,389,096,300	6 / 7
2026-10-22	$4.84	$4,389,096,300	6 / 7
2026-10-23	$4.84	$4,389,096,300	6 / 7
2026-10-24	$4.84	$4,389,096,300	6 / 7

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	2	5	1
2026-06-01	2	6	1
2026-07-01	2	6	1
2026-08-01	2	5	1
2026-09-01	2	5	1
2026-10-01	2	5	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 5 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Morgan StanleySep 29

$95.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$52.25$104.50

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Capex between $60M and $75MDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Maintain free cash flow yield near 4%Free cash flow: $185M
Increase operating margin to 15.8%-16.2%Operating margin: 16.68%
Achieve record sales with organic growth and Facet acquisitionDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Dec 3, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.8%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-26.0%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Donaldson Company outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

DCI is an industrial company with a fundamentals-led, execution-based long-term thesis, rather than a turnaround case. The thesis is currently intact, with recent financial performance in the top half of its industry and muted price reaction to that performance.

What's priced into Donaldson Company

The valuation evidence describes DCI as cheap versus peers, with a small expectations gap and medium confidence. The market appears to recognize the recent operating strength without pricing in a large expectations gap; valuation has risen recently, while the priced-in assessment remains justified and fragility is low.

What the fundamentals likely do

Over the multi-year view, continued sales growth and margin improvement depend on management sustaining the execution seen in fiscal 2026. Sales rose 5.3%, adjusted EPS rose 8.2%, and operating margin reached 15.4% for the year, with 16.7% in the fourth quarter; capital spending was within guidance. Near term, the risk assessment is moderate, and a guidance cut would be a meaningful setback, especially against a headwind from the broader industrial sector.

What Donaldson Company hinges on

The central question is whether management can maintain growth and margins after delivering its fiscal 2026 priorities. Sector bellwethers’ results and guidance could either preserve or weaken the industrial-sector support for DCI. A guidance cut on the next call is the clearest company-specific downside trigger in the evidence.