Reading CTRA? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CTRA free→Reading CTRA? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CTRA free→NYSEEnergyOil & Gas E&pSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. Earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits, and risk is low. The sector backdrop is a headwind, and its earnings yield is above the sector (a relatively high yield). If CTRA cuts guidance on the next call, that's a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 0 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $32.56. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Not enough valuation methods to set a 12-month read yet.
Not enough peers to compare yet.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Energy names rated neutral grew net income 53% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=1255).
Over the trailing year it converted 2.71x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Energy names rated robust grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 35% for the rest of the cohort, n=602).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.60 → $0.66 (+9.1% / 30d). 9 raised, 3 cut, 14 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 67% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$136.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$318.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,551.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: The merger is important for making a bigger, better shale operator. If it goes well, it could help shareholders.
Confirms:The merger will close as planned in Q2 2026. All approvals are in place.
Disproves:The merger may be delayed or fail to get approvals. This would push the timeline back.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for CTRA yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Prior to the consummation of the Merger, shares of Company Common Stock were listed and traded on the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) under the trading symbol “CTRA.” In connection with the consummation of the Merger, the Company notified the NYSE that the Merger had been completed and requested that the NYSE delist the shares of Company Common Stock. Upon the Company’s request, the NYSE filed a notification of removal from listing on Form 25 with the SEC with respect to the delisting an…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Oil & Gas Exploration & Production.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
CTRA Coterra | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 57 of 100 | — | low |
COP ConocoPhillips | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 91 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
EOG EOG Resources | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 96 of 100 | full | moderate |
OXY Occidental Petroleum | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 85 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
FANG Diamondback Energy | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 55 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
22 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Energy names rated volatile grew net income 45% of the time over the next year (vs 48% for the rest of the cohort, n=252).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLE
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on completing the merger with Devon Energy to create a leading shale operator.
Adhere to the capital expenditure guidance of $2.25 billion for 2026.
Aim to achieve a free cash flow target of $2.35 billion for 2026.
Coterra expects to achieve an annual total production of 750 to 810 MBoepd in 2026.
Why it matters: Staying within capital spending guidance shows good financial management. It also helps cash flow.
Confirms:Capital spending for 2026 is between $2.175 and $2.325 billion.
Disproves:Capital spending goes above the upper limit of the guidance range.
Why it matters: Hitting free cash flow targets is important for returns and financial health.
Confirms:Free cash flow reaches or exceeds the target of $2.35 billion.
Disproves:Free cash flow is much lower than the target. This shows financial strain.
Why it matters: Plans for dividends and buybacks show a commitment to giving back to shareholders. This is key for investor trust.
Confirms:Coterra announces a quarterly dividend of $0.315 per share. It also has a buyback plan over $5 billion.
Disproves:No news on dividends or buybacks may mean cash flow problems.
Why it matters: Hitting the Free Cash Flow target is key for shareholder returns. It shows financial health after the merger.
Confirms:Coterra reports Free Cash Flow of $2.35 billion or more for the combined entity.
Disproves:Free Cash Flow drops below $2 billion, raising worries about efficiency.
Why it matters: Production updates will show what Coterra and Devon can do together. This shows efficiency and growth.
Confirms one read:Coterra will provide new production guidance. It will be over 810 MBoepd for the combined company.
Confirms the other:Production guidance drops below 750 MBoepd, showing problems with the merger.
As a result of the consummation of the Merger, a change in control of the Company occurred, and the Company became a wholly-owned subsidiary of Devon.
Pursuant to the Merger Agreement, at the effective time of the Merger (the “Effective Time”), each share of common stock, $0.10 par value, issued and outstanding of the Company (“Company Common Stock”) (other than shares held by Devon, Merger Sub or any of their respective subsidiaries or by the Company or any of its subsidiaries (collectively, the “Excluded Shares”)), was converted into the right to receive from Devon 0.70 fully paid and nonassessable shares of common stock, $0.10 par value,…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Pursuant to the Merger Agreement, effective as of the Effective Time, each member of the Company’s board of directors and each officer of the Company immediately prior to the Effective Time ceased his or her respective service as a director or officer of the Company. Such cessations of service were not related to any disagreement with the Company o…
Termination of a Material Definitive Agreement. In connection with the consummation of the Merger, on the Closing Date, the Company terminated all outstanding lender commitments under the Credit Agreement, dated as of March 10, 2023 (as amended by Amendment No. 1, dated as of September 12, 2024, and as further amended, restated, supplemented or modified prior to the Closing Date, the “Credit Agreement”), among the Company, the lenders and issuing banks party thereto and JPMorgan Chase Bank, N…