Reading CTM? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CTM free→Reading CTM? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CTM free→AMEXInformation TechnologyInformation Technology ServicesSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is steady, while management's recent track record has been stable and capital-friendly. However, the company was unprofitable over the past year, so its earnings quality can't be assessed, and risk is high. Peer multiples imply a price about 138% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich, as it trades above peer multiples, and the longer horizon does not make that back through growth. Key factors to watch include guidance changes and sector trends, as these could significantly impact the stock's trajectory. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 4 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $0.71. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $0.71 CTM trades at 24× p/e — 2.4× the 10× p/e peer median. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $0.30 fair value is low-confidence here. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 138% of near-term growth above a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Flags: expensive valuation, a turbulent sector regime (Heating).
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Information Technology names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 68% for the rest of the cohort, n=3704).
Over the trailing year it converted -1.16x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
8 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by M&A activity. Historically, Information Technology names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 62% for the rest of the cohort, n=797).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.01 → $0.01 (+0.0% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 1 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$258.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$692.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $6,377.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: If sector revenue growth falls, it may signal broader challenges for Castellum. This could worsen its financial situation.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth drops below its median.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth remains above median.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for CTM yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Other Events. On June 15, 2026, Castellum, Inc. issued a press release announcing its joint venture has won a position on a $250 million U.S. Navy logistics IT multiple award contract. The full text of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus IT Consulting & Other Services.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
CTM Castellum Inc | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 28 of 100 | expensive | high |
IBM IBM | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 35 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
ACN Accenture | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 99 of 100 | full | elevated |
CTSH Cognizant | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 91 of 100 | fair | elevated |
APLD APPLIED DIGITAL CORPORATION | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 20 of 100 | expensive | high |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLK
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on increasing revenue through strategic initiatives and market expansion.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue grew from $12.56M in 2025-Q4 to $14.29M in 2026-Q1, indicating progress in revenue growth initiatives. The trajectory shows delivering on stated growth focus.
“CEO: 'We currently expect to recognize approximately 16% of this backlog over the next 12 months.'”
“CEO: 'Revenue growth is a key focus as we move forward.'”
“CEO: 'We are targeting increased revenue through strategic initiatives.'”
Aim to improve operating income through cost management and efficiency.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Operating income improved from -$1.39M in 2025-Q4 to -$0.70M in 2026-Q1, showing progress in cost management efforts. The trajectory indicates delivering on the priority.
“CFO: 'We are focused on improving operating income through better cost management.'”
Focus on enhancing cash flow from operations through strategic financial management.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Cash flow from operations improved from -$0.66M in 2025-Q4 to $1.29M in 2026-Q1, indicating effective financial management. The trajectory shows delivering on this priority.
“CFO: 'Enhancing cash flow from operations remains a key focus.'”
Why it matters: More unemployment claims can show a weak economy. This might hurt Castellum's business.
Confirms:Weekly unemployment claims are rising a lot above current levels.
Disproves:Weekly unemployment claims are going down or staying the same.
and this Item 7.01, including Exhibit 99.1 and 99.2, is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities and Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing made by the Company under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing.
of Form 8-K, “Results of Operations and Financial Condition” and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing.
Departure of directors or certain officers; election of directors; appointment of certain officers; compensatory arrangements of certain officers. Castellum, Inc. (the "Company") entered into an at-will employment arrangement with Tammy L. Martin, the Company's General Counsel, the terms of which are effective January 1, 2026. Notwithstanding the at-will arrangement, each party has agreed to provide the other party with sixty days advanced written notice prior to terminating the employment ar…
Departure of directors or certain officers; election of directors; appointment of certain officers; compensatory arrangements of certain officers. Jay O. Wright resigned his positions as Executive Vice-President Strategy, General Counsel, and Secretary, as well as a member of the Board of Directors of Castellum, Inc. (the "Company"), effective at the end of day on December 31, 2025. There was no dispute between Mr. Wright and the Company. Effective January 1, 2026 the Company has appointed Ta…
“CFO: 'Operating income improvement is a priority.'”
“CFO: 'We aim to enhance operating income by optimizing costs.'”
“CFO: 'We are working on improving cash flow from operations.'”