Reading CNR? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CNR free→Reading CNR? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CNR free→NYSEEnergyThermal CoalSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and the company was unprofitable over the past year, so its earnings quality can't be assessed. Management's recent track record has been steady, but risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 16% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. If CNR cuts guidance on the next call, that's a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 3 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $87.64. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $88 CNR trades at 1× p/s, below its 2× p/s peer median. Our $104 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 15% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 43%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Energy names rated weak grew net income 60% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=979).
Over the trailing year it converted -8.50x of net income into operating cash flow.
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the broad stock market, the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
1 material management or governance event in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Energy names rated stable grew net income 53% of the time over the next year (vs 45% for the rest of the cohort, n=249).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.36 → $0.54 (+48.9% / 30d). 1 raised, 0 cut, 2 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$230.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$524.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,722.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: This report will show if Core can maintain its momentum in revenue and cash flow.
Confirms one read:Q2 2026 net income exceeds $21 million and adjusted EBITDA grows from $179.9 million.
Confirms the other:In Q2 2026, net income is below $21 million. Adjusted EBITDA drops from $179.9 million.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for CNR yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. Core Natural Resources, Inc. (the "Company," "we," "us," or "our") issued a press release on May 7, 2026 announcing its 2026 first quarter results. A copy of the press release is attached to this Form 8-K as Exhibit 99.1. Please refer to our website at www.corenaturalresources.com for additional information regarding the Company. For example, periodically during the quarter, we may provide investor presentations, which would appear on our website…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Coal & Consumable Fuels.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
CNR Core Natural Resources, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 71 of 100 | fair | elevated |
UEC Uranium Energy Corp. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 2 of 100 | — | high |
BTU Peabody Energy, Inc. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 24 of 100 | fair | elevated |
LEU Centrus Energy Corp. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 17 of 100 | expensive | high |
METC Ramaco Resources, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 40 of 100 | — | elevated |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLE
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Core aims to return 75% of its free cash flow to stockholders, primarily through share repurchases and dividends.
Core aims to increase its revenue growth through strategic initiatives and operational improvements.
Core aims to enhance cash flow from operations through improved operational efficiency and cost management.
Enhance operating income through cost management and efficiency improvements.
Why it matters: Strong free cash flow supports Core's capital return program and stockholder returns.
Confirms:Free cash flow in Q2 2026 exceeds $55.5 million reported in Q1 2026.
Disproves:Free cash flow in Q2 2026 falls below $55.5 million.
Why it matters: Strong performance at these mines is crucial for revenue and margin growth.
Confirms:Operational metrics show better performance at Leer South and West Elk than in Q1 2026.
Disproves:Operational metrics decline at Leer South and West Elk compared to Q1 2026.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. Core Natural Resources, Inc. (the "Company," "we," "us," or "our") issued a press release on February 12, 2026 announcing its 2025 fourth quarter results. A copy of the press release is attached to this Form 8-K as Exhibit 99.1. Please refer to our website at www.corenaturalresources.com for additional information regarding the Company. For example, periodically during the quarter, we may provide investor presentations, which would appear on our…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On October 6, 2025 (the “Transition Date”), the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of Core Natural Resources, Inc. (the “Company” or “Core”) appointed James A. Brock to serve as the Company’s Chief Executive Officer (“CEO”), effective immediately. Mr. Brock will continue to serve as Chair of the Board. Mr. Brock’s biography was included in the Defini…