Reading SXC? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track SXC free→Reading SXC? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track SXC free→NYSEMaterialsCoking CoalSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak. Earnings quality is not assessable since the company is unprofitable. Management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent changes. The sector backdrop is a headwind, which adds risk. Peer multiples imply a price about 57% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk. This pattern occurs because recent financials are weak. The read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $8.95. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $9.20 SXC trades at 32× p/e — 1.5× the 20× p/e peer median. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $20 fair value is medium-confidence here. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 54% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 1%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Crisis) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Materials names rated weak grew net income 51% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=1088).
Over the trailing year it converted -2.37x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
12 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Materials names rated volatile grew net income 61% of the time over the next year (vs 51% for the rest of the cohort, n=235).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.08 → $0.08 (+0.0% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 1 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 50% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$211.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$391.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,238.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Management's view on making money can affect investor trust. A good outlook may help the stock.
Confirms:Management gives guidance showing a way to make money in the next quarters.
Disproves:Management has a negative view on making money for the near future.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for SXC yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 30, 2026, SunCoke Energy, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing first quarter 2026 financial results. A copy of this press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Coal & Consumable Fuels.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
SXC SunCoke Energy, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 54 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
UEC Uranium Energy Corp. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 2 of 100 | — | high |
CNR Core Natural Resources, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 73 of 100 | fair | elevated |
LEU Centrus Energy Corp. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 18 of 100 | expensive | high |
BTU Peabody Energy, Inc. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 24 of 100 | fair | elevated |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLB
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
SunCoke Energy aims to keep capital expenditures within the range of $90 million to $100 million for the fiscal year 2026.
SunCoke Energy expects to achieve approximately 3.4 million tons in domestic coke sales for the fiscal year 2026.
SunCoke Energy has extended its metallurgical coke supply agreement with U.S. Steel for an additional 12 months.
Why it matters: This report will show if the company's revenue is still shrinking. Investors want to see signs of recovery.
Confirms:Earnings report shows revenue growth turning positive compared to last year.
Disproves:Earnings report shows revenue continues to decline year over year.
Why it matters: The materials sector is in decline. Positive growth could signal a recovery for SunCoke.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth turns positive after being near -1 percent.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth is still negative. This shows ongoing decline.
Other Events. On April 30, 2026, the Company issued a press release announcing the declaration of its quarterly cash dividend. A copy of this press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.3 and is incorporated herein by reference. Safe Harbor Statement Statements contained in the exhibits to this report that state the Company’s or management’s expectations or predictions of the future are forward-looking statements intended to be covered by the safe harbor provisions of the Securities Act of…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On February 24, 2026, SunCoke Energy, Inc. (the “Company”) announced that Mr. Michael W. Lewis, 76, has stated his intention to retire from service on the Company’s Board of Directors (“Board”), effective as of the date of the Company’s annual meeting of stockholders in May 2026, in order to focus on personal commitments. Mr. Lewis has been a Board…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 17, 2026, SunCoke Energy, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing fourth quarter and full-year 2025 financial results. A copy of this press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers On January 15, 2026, SunCoke Energy, Inc. (the “Company” ) announced Mark W. Marinko’s retirement as Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, effective March 13, 2026. As part of a planned leadership succession process, the Company also announced that Shantanu Agrawal, the Company’s current Vice President, Finance and Treasurer, will succe…