Reading BTU? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
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NYSEEnergyThermal CoalSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. Earnings quality cannot be assessed since the company was unprofitable over the past year, and risk is elevated. The sector backdrop is a headwind, and compared with sector peers, BTU is below typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 12% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 3 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $25.49. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $26 BTU trades at 1× p/s, below its 2× p/s peer median. Our $29 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 12% below a flat-multiple fair value, in line with our forecast of about -11%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Energy names rated weak grew net income 60% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=979).
Over the trailing year it converted -2.23x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
7 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Energy names rated neutral grew net income 45% of the time over the next year (vs 49% for the rest of the cohort, n=329).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.79 → $-0.29 (-136.4% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 4 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 67% of analysts rate Buy.
1 positive, 3 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$244.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$583.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,086.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows financial health. It also shows a commitment to shareholders.
Confirms:The dividend is paid as scheduled at $0.075 per share.
Disproves:The dividend is either stopped or lowered.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for BTU yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Australian Surety Bond Facilities On June 12, 2026, Peabody Australia Holdco Pty Ltd, Wilpinjong Coal Pty Ltd and certain of their respective Australian subsidiaries (collectively, the “Australian Surety Bond Facility Obligors”), each a subsidiary of Peabody Energy Corporation (the “Company” or “Peabody”), established new Australian Dollar-denominated surety bond facilities with an aggregate combined principal amount of A$700,000,000 in commitments…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Coal & Consumable Fuels.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
BTU Peabody Energy, Inc. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 25 of 100 | fair | elevated |
UEC Uranium Energy Corp. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 2 of 100 | — | high |
CNR Core Natural Resources, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 71 of 100 | fair | elevated |
LEU Centrus Energy Corp. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 17 of 100 | expensive | high |
METC Ramaco Resources, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 40 of 100 | — | elevated |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLE
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on addressing the recent earnings miss and improving financial performance.
Peabody continues to declare a quarterly dividend of $0.075 per share.
Stated in 4 of last 4 quarters. Dividend per share consistently at $0.075. Despite financial challenges, Peabody has maintained its dividend, indicating a commitment to shareholder returns.
“Peabody declared a quarterly dividend of $0.075 per share on May 5, 2026.”
“Peabody declared a $0.075 per share dividend on Feb. 5, 2026.”
“Peabody declared a quarterly dividend of $0.075 per share.”
“Peabody declared a quarterly dividend of $0.075 per share.”
Peabody announced the issuance of $225 million in convertible senior notes due 2031.
Newly stated in 2026-Q2. Convertible notes offering of $225 million was announced. This capital allocation move aims to enhance financial flexibility, but its impact on financials is yet to be seen.
“Peabody priced its offering of $225 million in convertible senior notes due 2031.”
Why it matters: The success of this offering is crucial for Peabody's capital structure and future growth plans.
Confirms one read:The offering was successful. It raised over $225 million.
Confirms the other:Failure to complete the offering or proceeds fall below $200 million.
Why it matters: This report will reveal if Peabody can address its recent earnings miss and improve performance.
Confirms one read:Q2 earnings are much better than Q1 results.
Confirms the other:Q2 earnings fall short again. This shows ongoing problems.
Termination of a Material Definitive Agreement. On June 12, 2026, the Company terminated that certain Transaction Support Agreement and Surety Resolution Term Sheet, each dated as of November 6, 2020 (as amended, supplemented or otherwise modified to the date hereof, the “TSA”), by and among the Company, certain subsidiaries of the Company party thereto and certain providers of its surety program (collectively, the “Sureties”). In connection with the termination of the TSA, on June 12, 2026,…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Convertible Notes and the Indenture On May 28, 2026, Peabody Energy Corporation (the “Company” or “Peabody”) priced its private offering of $225 million in aggregate principal amount of 0.50% Convertible Senior Notes due 2031 (the “Initial Notes”). On May 29, 2026, the initial purchasers in such offering exercised their option (the “Notes Option”) to purchase an additional $25 million in aggregate principal amount of the Notes (together with the “In…
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The information set forth under
Convertible Notes The Company offered and sold the Notes to the initial purchasers in reliance on the exemption from registration provided by Section 4(a)(2) of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”), and for initial resale by the initial purchasers to persons reasonably believed to be qualified institutional buyers pursuant to the exemption from registration provided by Rule 144A under the Securities Act. The Company relied on these exemptions based in part on represen…