Peabody Energy, Inc. (BTU)

NYSEEnergyCoalSnapshot 2026-10-23

$22.89+2.05%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Peabody Energy, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	1.24B
EPS	—	0.695
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	—	4.28B
EPS	—	-0.277
Capital expenditure	$340M	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	4.69B
EPS	—	2.726

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Successful use of $225 million convertible senior notes	The $225 million convertible notes improve its financial flexibility.	Intact	Convertible notes issuance fails or is reversed	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Quarterly dividend of $0.075 per share maintained	A supporting condition in Peabody Energy, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $0.075 per share per quarter.	Intact	Dividend falls below $0.075 per share per quarter	Dividend per share: $0.07 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.075 per share per quarter. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 20260.075 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 345409e4-9446-43be-b0cc-f68367a5d86b. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Management stated the $0.075 per share quarterly dividend in 3 consecutive quarters from 2025-Q4 through 2026-Q2. The dividend was declared and paid on schedule each quarter. This reflects consistent capital allocation to shareholders as committed. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Revenue at or above $973 million in FY2026	A primary condition in Peabody Energy, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $973 million.	Intact	Revenue falls below $973 million in FY26	Revenue: $1.003B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $973 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 20261,003,200,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 345409e4-9446-43be-b0cc-f68367a5d86b. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2027 revenueUnavailable

$4.83B → Unavailable · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	$4,829,781,370	4 / 5
2026-07-25	Unavailable	$4,829,781,370	4 / 5
2026-07-26	Unavailable	$4,829,781,370	4 / 5
2026-07-27	Unavailable	$4,824,763,210	4 / 5
2026-07-28	Unavailable	$4,824,763,210	4 / 5
2026-07-29	Unavailable	$4,824,763,210	4 / 5
2026-07-30	Unavailable	$4,824,763,210	4 / 5
2026-07-31	Unavailable	$4,795,070,930	3 / 5
2026-08-01	Unavailable	$4,795,070,930	3 / 5
2026-08-02	Unavailable	$4,795,070,930	3 / 5
2026-08-03	Unavailable	$4,795,070,930	3 / 5
2026-08-04	Unavailable	$4,795,070,930	3 / 5
2026-08-05	Unavailable	$4,795,070,930	3 / 5
2026-08-06	Unavailable	$4,795,070,930	3 / 5
2026-08-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-09	Unavailable	$4,778,016,250	3 / 5
2026-08-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-12	Unavailable	$4,621,320,490	3 / 5
2026-08-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	4	2
2026-06-01	4	2
2026-07-01	4	2
2026-08-01	4	2
2026-09-01	4	2
2026-10-01	4	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Successful use of $225 million convertible senior notesDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Quarterly dividend of $0.075 per share maintainedDividend per share: $0.07 per share
Revenue at or above $973 million in FY2026Revenue: $1.003B

Next proof point

Nov 4, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.7%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-47.3%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Peabody Energy, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a cyclical energy business with a production-growth effort at Centurion Mine, rather than a steady compounder. The long-term thesis is on watch: ramp-up progress is real, but recent financial performance is weak and management execution has been mixed.

What's priced into Peabody Energy, Inc.

BTU is described as cheap versus peers, while the expectations gap is negative, suggesting current assumptions may still be demanding relative to the evidence. Confidence in the valuation model is low, and the snapshot says weak execution is partly reflected, but not a full combination of expensive valuation, weak execution, and a turbulent sector.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, earnings risk is elevated after recent misses, including the July 2026 miss, and a guidance cut would add pressure to the business outlook. Over the multi-year view, Centurion’s ramp is the main operating support: targeted sales are increasing, though reaching the longer-term production rate remains an execution task. Capital-structure actions have progressed, while the dividend has been paid on schedule.

What Peabody Energy, Inc. hinges on

The key swing factor is whether Centurion continues progressing toward targeted sales and its longer-term run rate without further operational setbacks. Near term, guidance and earnings delivery matter, while energy-sector conditions could help or weaken the backdrop depending on whether sector bellwethers keep reporting strong results.