Reading NC? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track NC free→Reading NC? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track NC free→NYSEEnergyThermal CoalSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, and earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, and the company is capital-friendly in its approach. However, risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, which may impact future performance. Peer multiples imply a price about 10% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, quality intact, priced roughly in line with peers, with steady recent financials and earnings quality. The read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 4 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $52.01. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $52 NC trades at 23× p/e — 1.5× the 16× p/e peer median. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $50 fair value is medium-confidence here. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 3% near-term growth, in line with our forecast of about 3%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 3 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Energy names rated strong grew net income 60% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=979).
Over the trailing year it converted 2.71x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Energy names rated robust grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 35% for the rest of the cohort, n=602).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
via XLE
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$148.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$377.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,961.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: If revenue growth improves, it could signal a shift back to a growth phase for NACCO. This would be positive for the stock.
Confirms:Three-year revenue growth in the energy sector rises above 2%.
Disproves:Three-year revenue growth in the energy sector stays below 2%.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for NC yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. NACCO Industries, Inc. Amended and Restated Long-Term Executive Compensation Plan On March 1, 2026, the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of NACCO Industries, Inc. ® (“NACCO”, the “Company”, “we”, “our” or “us”) adopted NACCO Industries, Inc.'s Amended and Restated Long-Term Executive Compensation Plan (the “Amended Long-Term Equity Plan”). Prior ve…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Coal & Consumable Fuels.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
NC NACCO Industries, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 48 of 100 | full | elevated |
UEC Uranium Energy Corp. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 2 of 100 | — | high |
CNR Core Natural Resources, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 71 of 100 | fair | elevated |
BTU Peabody Energy, Inc. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 24 of 100 | fair | elevated |
LEU Centrus Energy Corp. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 17 of 100 | expensive | high |
7 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Energy names rated neutral grew net income 45% of the time over the next year (vs 49% for the rest of the cohort, n=329).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on achieving meaningful year-over-year improvements in operating profit throughout 2026.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Operating income increased from $7.57M in 2025-Q4 to $11.02M in 2026-Q1, indicating progress towards the goal of improving operating profit in 2026. The trajectory is delivering on management's stated priority.
“We expect a meaningful increase in operating profit compared with 2025.”
“We expect meaningful year-over-year improvements in both operating profit and net income in 2026.”
“I expect this momentum to continue to build as we execute our long-term growth strategy.”
Plan to spend up to $89 million in capital expenditures for business development opportunities in 2026.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Management plans to spend up to $89M in capex for 2026, with $57M anticipated for the remainder of the year. This indicates a focus on business development opportunities, but specific spending details are not yet evident.
“We anticipate additional spending of up to $57 million over the remainder of the year.”
Continue to provide a consistent dividend per share to shareholders.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Dividend per share remained at $0.2525 in 2026-Q1, consistent with previous quarters, indicating a stable dividend policy. This reflects management's commitment to maintaining shareholder returns.
of this Current Report on Form 8-K, the following Exhibit is furnished as part of this Current Report on Form 8-K. (d) Exhibits 99 NACCO Industries, Inc. first quarter ended March 31, 2026 earnings release, dated May 5, 2026 104 Cover Page Interactive Data File (embedded within the Inline XBRL document) SIGNATURES Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned hereunto duly authorize…
of this Current Report on Form 8-K, the following Exhibit is furnished as part of this Current Report on Form 8-K. (d) Exhibits 99 NACCO Industries, Inc. Investor Presentation, dated March 19, 2026 104 Cover Page Interactive Data File (embedded within the Inline XBRL document) SIGNATURES Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned hereunto duly authorized. Date: March 19, 2026 NAC…
of this Current Report on Form 8-K, the following Exhibit is furnished as part of this Current Report on Form 8-K. (d) Exhibits 99 NACCO Industries, Inc. fourth quarter and year ended December 31, 2025 earnings release, dated March 4, 2026. 104 Cover Page Interactive Data File (embedded within the Inline XBRL document) SIGNATURES Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned hereunt…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Excess Plan Amendment On December 12, 2025, the Compensation and Human Capital Committee (“Compensation Committee”) of the Board of Directors of NACCO Industries, Inc. approved NACCO Natural Resources Corporation’s amendment to The NACCO Natural Resources Corporation Excess Retirement Plan (“Excess Plan”). The amendment is effective January 1, 2026…
“In 2026, we anticipate total capital expenditures of up to $89 million.”
“Dividend per share remained at $0.2525.”
“Dividend per share was $0.2525.”
“Dividend per share was $0.2525.”