Reading LEU? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
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NYSEEnergyUraniumSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is fragile, reported profits aren't backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, but risk is high, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, LEU trades below typical levels, indicating it looks expensive. Peer multiples imply a price about 223% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 4 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $165.45. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $165 LEU trades at 46× p/e — 2.9× the 16× p/e peer median. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $50 fair value is low-confidence here. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 223% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about -20%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Flags: expensive valuation, weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating).
For similar setups historically (n=889): about 49% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 85% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Energy names rated neutral grew net income 53% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=1255).
Over the trailing year it converted -0.34x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Energy names rated fragile grew net income 38% of the time over the next year (vs 44% for the rest of the cohort, n=602).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.05 → $1.05 (+0.0% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 3 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 69% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target -3.8% above current price.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$296.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$922.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $6,637.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show how the company is doing now.
Confirms one read:Earnings report shows a profit or revenue growth compared to Q1.
Confirms the other:Earnings report shows a loss or revenue decline compared to Q1.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for LEU yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On May 5, 2026 , Centrus Energy Corp. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is being furnished as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. The information furnished pursuant to this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed "filed" for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (the “Exchange Act”) or otherwi…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Coal & Consumable Fuels.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
LEU Centrus Energy Corp. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 18 of 100 | expensive | high |
UEC Uranium Energy Corp. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 2 of 100 | — | high |
CNR Core Natural Resources, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 73 of 100 | fair | elevated |
BTU Peabody Energy, Inc. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 25 of 100 | fair | elevated |
METC Ramaco Resources, Inc. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 20 of 100 | — | elevated |
12 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Energy names rated neutral grew net income 45% of the time over the next year (vs 49% for the rest of the cohort, n=329).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLE
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Centrus is expanding its uranium enrichment facility in Piketon, Ohio, as part of a multi-billion dollar project.
Centrus has revised its 2026 revenue guidance upward to a range of $450 million to $500 million.
Centrus plans capital deployment in the range of $350 million to $500 million for 2026.
Why it matters: If revenue growth improves, it could signal a positive change in the energy sector.
Confirms:Centrus Energy reports revenue growth above 2% year over year.
Disproves:Revenue growth remains below 2% year over year.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement On April 16, 2026, American Centrifuge Operating, LLC, a Delaware limited liability company (“ACO”) and a wholly owned subsidiary of Centrus Energy Corp. (the “Company”), entered into a contract (the “Construction Contract”) with Geiger Brothers, Inc. (the “Contractor”), for the performance of construction activities associated with the Company’s previously announced multi-billion dollar expansion of its uranium enrichment facility in Piketon, Ohio (…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On February 10, 2026, Centrus Energy Corp. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing financial results for the year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is being furnished as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. The information furnished pursuant to this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed "filed" for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (the “Exchange Act”) or ot…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement On February 9, 2026, American Centrifuge Operating, LLC, a Delaware limited liability company (“ACO”) and a wholly owned subsidiary of Centrus Energy Corp. ("the Company"), entered into an engineering, procurement and construction agreement (the “EPC Agreement”) with Fluor Federal Services, Inc. (the “Contractor”), for the design, engineering, procurement, construction, and commissioning of the Company’s previously announced commercial uranium enrich…
Notice of Delisting or Failure to Satisfy a Continued Listing Rule or Standard; Transfer of Listing On December 1, 2025, Centrus Energy Corp. (the “Company”) announced that the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) had approved the transfer of the listing of the (i) the Company’s Class A Common Stock, par value $0.10 per share (the “Class A Common Stock”) and (ii) the associated rights to purchase Series A participating cumulative preferred stock, par value $1.00 per share (the “Rights”) from…