Reading CADL? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CADL free→Reading CADL? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CADL free→NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and earnings quality cannot be assessed since the company was unprofitable over the past year. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, and it has a capital-friendly stance. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, with CADL trading below typical compared to sector peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 67% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich, as it trades above peer multiples, and the longer horizon does not make that back through growth. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 1 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $8.56. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
We can't anchor a clean multiple for CADL right now, so treat our $5.14 fair value as low-confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 67% of near-term growth above a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Flags: expensive valuation, a turbulent sector regime (Heating).
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 0 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated weak grew net income 55% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=2391).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.88x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity, the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
9 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Health Care names rated neutral grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 50% for the rest of the cohort, n=842).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.00 → $-0.26. 0 raised, 0 cut, 1 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 89% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$223.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$647.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,704.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
No named catalysts to watch right now. Check back after the next earnings report.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for CADL yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 14, 2026, Candel Therapeutics, Inc. announced its financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. The full text of the press release issued in connection with the announcement is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The information in this Current Report on Form 8-K (including Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto) is furnished herewith and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exc…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
Not enough peers to compare yet.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Biotechnology.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
CADL Candel Therapeutics, Inc. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 26 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
ABBV AbbVie | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 85 of 100 | fair | low |
AMGN Amgen | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 78 of 100 | full | moderate |
GILD Gilead Sciences | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 100 of 100 | fair | moderate |
VRTX Vertex Pharmaceuticals | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 80 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Begin a pivotal phase 3 clinical trial of CAN-2409 in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) in Q2 2026.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. The company has reiterated its plan to initiate a pivotal phase 3 trial of CAN-2409 in NSCLC in Q2 2026. However, there is no financial data or milestone achievement in the current quarter to substantiate progress on this priority.
“this further strengthens our balance sheet, brings new institutional investors into the Company, and positions us to advance our key priorities, including the initiation of a pivotal phase 3 clinical…”
“The Company plans to initiate a pivotal phase 3 clinical trial of CAN-2409 in NSCLC in Q2 2026.”
Prepare for a potential commercial launch of aglatimagene besadenovec.
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. The company has indicated preparation for a potential commercial launch of aglatimagene. However, there is no financial data or specific milestone achievement in the current quarter to substantiate progress on this priority.
“positions us to advance our key priorities, including preparation for a potential commercial launch of aglatimagene.”
Plan to submit a Biologics License Application (BLA) for CAN-2409 in prostate cancer by Q4 2026.
Newly stated in 2025-Q4. The company plans to submit a BLA for CAN-2409 in prostate cancer by Q4 2026. There is no financial data or specific milestone achievement in the current quarter to substantiate progress on this priority.
“Submission of BLA for CAN-2409 in prostate cancer is expected in Q4 2026.”
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On March 12, 2026, Candel Therapeutics, Inc. announced its financial results for the quarter and year ended December 31, 2025. The full text of the press release issued in connection with the announcement is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The information in this Current Report on Form 8-K (including Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto) is furnished herewith and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. The information contained in
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement On February 19, 2026, Candel Therapeutics, Inc. (the “Company”) entered into an underwriting agreement (the “Underwriting Agreement”) with Citigroup Global Markets Inc., Cantor Fitzgerald & Co., and Stifel, Nicolaus & Company, Incorporated, as representatives (the “Representatives”) of the underwriters named therein (the “Underwriters”), pursuant to which the Company agreed to issue and sell an aggregate of 18,348,624 shares (the “Firm Shares”) of it…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On February 19, 2026, Candel Therapeutics, Inc. (the “Company”) announced its entry into a purchase and sale agreement (the “Purchase Agreement”) with funds managed by RTW Investments, LP (the “Purchaser”). Under the terms of the Purchase Agreement, the Purchaser has agreed to pay the Company $100 million (the “Purchase Price”) upon the marketing approval of the Company’s product referred to as CAN-2409 (aglatimagene besadenovec) (the “Product”) for…