Candel Therapeutics, Inc. (CADL)

NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-10-23

$8.03-4.18%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Candel Therapeutics, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	0
EPS	—	-0.355
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	92.5M
EPS	—	-1.358
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	41.92M
EPS	—	-1.111

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Advance phase 3 trial of CAN-2409 in non-small cell lung cancer	The company aims to start phase 3 trials for lung cancer.	Intact	Phase 3 trial initiation delayed or halted in 2026	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Move from losses to positive earnings	A primary condition in Candel Therapeutics, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is EPS >= $0.22 in FY27.	Broken	EPS remains negative or below $0 in FY27	Diluted EPS: $-0.52 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: EPS >= $0.22 in FY27. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 13, 2026-0.52 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 48aa16c4-e33e-4ce1-88d1-dd76ab461298. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Submit biologics license application (BLA) for CAN-2409 in prostate cancer	The company aims to start phase 3 trials for lung cancer.	Intact	BLA submission missed or rejected in 2026	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2027 revenue$0.04B

$0.04B → $0.04B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	$42,834,483	4 / 6
2026-07-25	Unavailable	$42,834,483	4 / 6
2026-07-26	Unavailable	$42,834,483	4 / 6
2026-07-27	Unavailable	$42,834,483	4 / 6
2026-07-28	Unavailable	$42,834,483	4 / 6
2026-07-29	Unavailable	$42,834,483	4 / 6
2026-07-30	Unavailable	$42,835,110	2 / 8
2026-07-31	Unavailable	$42,834,483	4 / 6
2026-08-01	Unavailable	$42,835,110	2 / 8
2026-08-02	Unavailable	$42,835,110	2 / 8
2026-08-03	Unavailable	$42,835,110	2 / 8
2026-08-04	Unavailable	$42,835,110	2 / 8
2026-08-05	Unavailable	$42,835,110	2 / 8
2026-08-06	Unavailable	$42,835,110	2 / 8
2026-08-07	Unavailable	$42,834,483	4 / 6
2026-08-08	Unavailable	$42,835,110	2 / 8
2026-08-09	Unavailable	$42,835,110	2 / 8
2026-08-10	Unavailable	$42,835,110	2 / 8
2026-08-11	Unavailable	$42,834,483	4 / 6
2026-08-12	Unavailable	$42,834,483	4 / 6
2026-08-13	Unavailable	$42,835,110	2 / 8
2026-08-14	Unavailable	$42,834,483	4 / 6
2026-08-15	Unavailable	$42,834,483	4 / 5
2026-08-16	Unavailable	$42,834,483	4 / 6
2026-08-17	Unavailable	$42,834,483	4 / 6
2026-08-18	Unavailable	$42,834,483	4 / 6
2026-08-19	Unavailable	$42,834,483	4 / 6
2026-08-20	Unavailable	$42,834,483	4 / 6
2026-08-21	Unavailable	$43,381,779	4 / 6
2026-08-22	Unavailable	$43,381,779	4 / 6
2026-08-23	Unavailable	$43,381,779	4 / 6
2026-08-24	Unavailable	$43,381,779	4 / 6
2026-08-25	Unavailable	$43,381,779	4 / 6
2026-08-26	Unavailable	$43,381,779	4 / 6
2026-08-27	Unavailable	$43,381,779	4 / 6
2026-08-28	Unavailable	$43,381,779	4 / 6
2026-08-29	Unavailable	$43,381,779	4 / 6
2026-08-30	Unavailable	$43,381,779	4 / 6
2026-08-31	Unavailable	$43,381,779	4 / 6
2026-09-01	Unavailable	$43,381,779	4 / 6
2026-09-02	Unavailable	$43,381,779	4 / 6
2026-09-03	Unavailable	$43,381,779	4 / 6
2026-09-04	Unavailable	$43,381,779	4 / 6
2026-09-05	Unavailable	$43,381,779	4 / 6
2026-09-06	Unavailable	$43,381,779	4 / 6
2026-09-07	Unavailable	$43,381,779	4 / 6
2026-09-08	Unavailable	$43,381,779	4 / 6
2026-09-09	Unavailable	$43,381,779	4 / 6
2026-09-10	Unavailable	$43,381,779	4 / 6
2026-09-11	Unavailable	$43,381,779	4 / 6
2026-09-12	Unavailable	$43,381,779	4 / 6
2026-09-13	Unavailable	$43,381,779	4 / 6
2026-09-14	Unavailable	$43,381,779	4 / 6
2026-09-15	Unavailable	$43,381,779	4 / 6
2026-09-16	Unavailable	$43,381,779	4 / 6
2026-09-17	Unavailable	$43,381,779	4 / 6
2026-09-18	Unavailable	$43,381,779	4 / 6
2026-09-19	Unavailable	$43,381,779	4 / 6
2026-09-20	Unavailable	$43,381,779	4 / 6
2026-09-21	Unavailable	$43,381,779	4 / 6
2026-09-22	Unavailable	$44,322,931	4 / 6
2026-09-23	Unavailable	$44,322,931	4 / 6
2026-09-24	Unavailable	$44,322,931	4 / 6
2026-09-25	Unavailable	$44,322,931	4 / 6
2026-09-26	Unavailable	$44,322,931	4 / 6
2026-09-27	Unavailable	$44,322,931	4 / 6
2026-09-28	Unavailable	$44,322,931	4 / 6
2026-09-29	Unavailable	$44,322,931	4 / 6
2026-09-30	Unavailable	$44,322,931	4 / 6
2026-10-01	Unavailable	$44,322,931	4 / 6
2026-10-02	Unavailable	$44,322,931	4 / 6
2026-10-03	Unavailable	$44,322,931	4 / 5
2026-10-04	Unavailable	$44,322,931	4 / 5
2026-10-05	Unavailable	$44,322,931	4 / 5
2026-10-06	Unavailable	$44,322,931	4 / 5
2026-10-07	Unavailable	$44,322,931	4 / 6
2026-10-08	Unavailable	$44,322,931	4 / 6
2026-10-09	Unavailable	$44,322,931	4 / 6
2026-10-10	Unavailable	$44,322,931	4 / 6
2026-10-11	Unavailable	$44,322,931	4 / 6
2026-10-12	Unavailable	$44,322,931	4 / 6
2026-10-13	Unavailable	$44,322,931	4 / 6
2026-10-14	Unavailable	$44,322,931	4 / 6
2026-10-15	Unavailable	$44,322,931	4 / 6
2026-10-16	Unavailable	$44,322,931	4 / 6
2026-10-17	Unavailable	$44,322,931	4 / 6
2026-10-18	Unavailable	$44,322,931	4 / 6
2026-10-19	Unavailable	$44,322,931	4 / 6
2026-10-20	Unavailable	$44,322,931	4 / 6
2026-10-21	Unavailable	$44,322,931	4 / 6
2026-10-22	Unavailable	$44,322,931	4 / 6
2026-10-23	Unavailable	$41,920,384	4 / 6
2026-10-24	Unavailable	$41,920,384	4 / 6

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	8	1
2026-06-01	8	1
2026-07-01	8	1
2026-08-01	8	1
2026-09-01	9	1
2026-10-01	10	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 10 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

JefferiesOct 22

$25.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$13.75$27.50

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Advance phase 3 trial of CAN-2409 in non-small cell lung cancerDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Move from losses to positive earningsPublished status: Broken
Submit biologics license application (BLA) for CAN-2409 in prostate cancerDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Nov 12, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.4%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-41.6%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Candel Therapeutics, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a speculative, clinical-stage biotechnology business, not an established earnings compounder. Its long-term thesis is in a watch state: key programs are progressing, but recent financial performance is weak and the evidence snapshot rates risk as elevated.

What's priced into Candel Therapeutics, Inc.

Valuation evidence is limited to low model confidence, so whether CADL is cheap, fair, or expensive versus peers cannot be judged reliably. The evidence does not identify specific market expectations; the company’s regulatory and launch plans are visible, but their success is not assured.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, earnings are unpredictable, with elevated risk of a miss and a recent earnings miss noted in August. Management reports progress toward a Q4 2026 regulatory submission for aglatimagene in localized prostate cancer, a potential 2027 U.S. launch, and a phase 3 NSCLC trial that began in Q2 2026. These milestones support the multi-year case, but do not remove execution risk.

What Candel Therapeutics, Inc. hinges on

The thesis depends on management completing the planned regulatory submission and continuing preparations for a potential U.S. launch. Near term, a guidance cut or further weak financial performance would add concern; stronger results and guidance from healthcare sector leaders could support a more favorable sector backdrop. The evidence provides limited detail on the programs’ clinical prospects.