Reading BTMCQ? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
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Track BTMCQ free→FinancialsSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. The company was unprofitable over the past year, so its earnings quality can't be assessed. Peer multiples imply a price about 8% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening, as it is priced roughly in line with peers, but recent financials or earnings quality are weakening. If BTMCQ cuts guidance on the next call, that could be a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 1 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $0.22. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $0.22 BTMCQ trades at 0× p/s, below its 3× p/s peer median. Our $0.80 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price sits about 72% below a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 0 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated weak grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=3730).
Over the trailing year it converted -5.50x of net income into operating cash flow.
Not enough signal yet.
23 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Financials names rated volatile grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3774).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Not enough price history for this read.
How much price usually moves either way.
Not enough price history for this read.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,284.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Valuation label changed from 'None' to 'inexpensive'.
Valuation changed. It rose to fair. Risk fell. The sector backdrop remained a headwind. Earnings quality stayed at loss-making. Management remained volatile and capital unfriendly. Recent financial performance was weak.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: The FOMC's choices can change interest rates. This can affect how Bitcoin Depot runs.
Confirms one read:FOMC raises interest rates or signals a hawkish stance.
Confirms the other:FOMC keeps interest rates steady or signals a dovish stance.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for BTMCQ yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
of this Current Report. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this report. This information shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), and is not incorporated by reference into any filing of the Company, whether made before or after the date hereof, regardless of any general incorporation language in such filing. The information in this Item 7.01, including Exhibit 99.1, is being furnish…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2024-Q3, 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Financials (broad).
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
BTMCQ Bitcoin Depot Inc | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 93 of 100 | inexpensive | high |
BRK-B Berkshire Hathaway | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 42 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
JPM JPMorgan Chase | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 38 of 100 | full | low |
V Visa Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 79 of 100 | expensive | low |
MA Mastercard | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 66 of 100 | expensive | low |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Manage the expected revenue decline of 30% to 40% for 2026.
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. The company has guided for a significant revenue decline of 30% to 40% for 2026. This reflects a challenging business environment, with revenue having already decreased from $172.1M in 2025-Q2 to $116.0M in 2025-Q4. The trajectory indicates a need for strategic adjustments to manage this decline.
“The Company expects revenue for the core business in 2026 to be down in the range of 30% to 40%.”
Proceed with Chapter 11 restructuring to address financial obligations.
Newly stated in 2026-Q2. The company is undergoing Chapter 11 restructuring to manage its financial obligations, as indicated by recent court filings. This strategic move is critical given the financial challenges, including a net income loss of $21.99M in 2025-Q4. The restructuring aims to stabilize the company's financial position.
“Court filings and other information related to the proceedings are available through the Company’s claims agent.”
Manage leadership transitions including CEO and COO changes.
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. The company is managing significant leadership transitions, including the resignation of its CEO and COO. These changes come amid financial challenges, with operating income declining from $17.8M in 2025-Q1 to a loss of $4.1M in 2025-Q4. Effective leadership will be crucial to navigate the current restructuring and financial recovery efforts.
“Resignation of Chief Executive Officer and Chief Operating Officer.”
Why it matters: Retail sales data can show consumer spending trends. This is important for Bitcoin Depot's business.
Confirms one read:Retail sales increase month over month.
Confirms the other:Retail sales decrease month over month.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth would signal a slowdown in the financial sector. This could impact Bitcoin Depot's performance.
Confirms:Revenue growth in the financial sector drops below 15%.
Disproves:Revenue growth stays above 15% or improves.
Notice of Delisting or Failure to Satisfy a Continued Listing Rule or Standard; Transfer of Listing. As previously disclosed, on May 17, 2026, Bitcoin Depot Inc. (the “Company”), BCD Merger Sub LLC, BitAccess Inc., Bitcoin Depot Operating LLC, BT HoldCo LLC, BTM International Holdings 1 LLC, BTM International Holdings II LLC, Cash Ramp LLC, Digital Gold Ventures Inc., Express Vending Inc., Intuitive Software LLC, Kiosk HoldCo LLC, Kiosk Technicians, LLC, Kutt, Inc., Lux Vending Kiosk, LLC, MC…
Triggering Events That Accelerate or Increase a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement. The filing of the Chapter 11 Cases constitutes an event of default that automatically accelerated and increased certain obligations under the Second Amended and Restated Credit Agreement, dated as of November 1, 2024 (as amended by that certain Amendment No. 1 to Second Amended and Restated Credit Agreement, dated as of March 14, 2025, and as further amended by…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 12, 2026, Bitcoin Depot Inc. (the “Company”) filed a Notification of Late Filing on Form 12b-25 (“Form 12b-25”) with the Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC) to report that the Company is unable to file its Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for the quarterly period ended March 31, 2026 within the prescribed time period due to the events described below. The Form 12b-25 included selected preliminary and unaudited financial results for…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Appointment of Ivona Smith to Board of Directors On May 13, 2026, the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of the Company, upon the recommendation of the Nominating and Corporate Governance Committee of the Board, appointed Ivona Smith to the Board, effective May 13, 2026. Ms. Smith will hold office until a successor is duly elected and qualified at th…