Reading BTAI? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track BTAI free→Reading BTAI? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track BTAI free→NASDAQHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
BTAI shows weak earnings quality and volatile management. Recent financial performance is neutral. Risk is high, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, it is below typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 157% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 1 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $1.20. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $1.20 BTAI trades at 6× p/s — 2.5× the 2× p/s peer median. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $0.48 fair value is low-confidence here. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 157% of near-term growth above a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Only expensive valuation — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 3 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated neutral grew net income 50% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3115).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.76x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
14 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by legal/regulatory items. Historically, Health Care names rated volatile grew net income 43% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=600).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $-0.36 → $-0.58 (-58.9% / 30d). 0 raised, 0 cut, 1 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 75% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$314.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$921.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $8,500.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
No named catalysts to watch right now. Check back after the next earnings report.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for BTAI yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 15, 2026, BioXcel Therapeutics, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the three months ended March 31, 2026 and provided a business update. A copy of the Company’s press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and incorporated herein by reference. The information disclosed under this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1 hereto, is being furnished and shall not be deeme…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
BTAI BIOXCEL THERAPEUTICS INC | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 4 of 100 | expensive | high |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
BioXcel aims to submit a supplemental New Drug Application for IGALMI for at-home use in treating acute agitation.
BioXcel is addressing financial challenges through capital allocation and debt issuance.
BioXcel is expanding the market opportunity for IGALMI in the at-home setting for acute agitation.
Unregistered Sales of Equity Securities. On March 27, 2026, BioXcel Therapeutics, Inc. (the “Company”) entered into the Ninth Amendment to the Credit Agreement and Guaranty, dated April 19, 2022, as amended (“Ninth Amendment”). Pursuant to the terms of the Ninth Amendment, on April 15, 2026, the Company granted the lenders under the Ninth Amendment (the “Lenders”) warrants to purchase up to 1,353,729 shares of common stock at an exercise price of $0.01 per share (the “Amendment Warrants”). Th…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On March 27, 2026, BioXcel Therapeutics, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the three months and year ended December 31, 2025 and provided a business update. A copy of the Company’s press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and incorporated herein by reference. The information disclosed under this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1 hereto, is being furnished and shal…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Registered Direct Offering and Warrant Amendment On March 10, 2026, BioXcel Therapeutics, Inc. (the “Company”) entered into a securities purchase agreement (the “Purchase Agreement”) with the purchaser named therein (the “Purchaser”). Pursuant to the Purchase Agreement, the Company agreed to issue and sell to the Purchaser and the Purchaser agreed to buy in a registered direct offering (the “Offering”) (i) an aggregate of 2,480,294 shares (the “Shar…
Other Events. On February 12, 2026, BioXcel Therapeutics, Inc. (the “Company”) announced the completion of an updated market opportunity assessment for IGALMI® for acute agitation associated with bipolar disorders or schizophrenia in the at-home (outpatient) setting, informed by results from the SERENITY At-Home clinical study. The Company submitted a supplemental New Drug Application (sNDA) last month seeking the FDA’s approval of IGALMI for at-home use in the acute treatment of agitation as…