Reading BKV? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track BKV free→Reading BKV? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track BKV free→NYSEEnergyOil & Gas E&pSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral. Earnings quality is fragile, and management's track record is volatile. The sector backdrop is a headwind, and risk is moderate. Compared with sector peers, BKV is below typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 40% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $24.23. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $24 BKV trades at 17× p/e — 1.4× the 12× p/e peer median. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $17 fair value is medium-confidence here. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 40% of near-term growth above a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Flags: expensive valuation, weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating).
For similar setups historically (n=889): about 49% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 85% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Energy names rated neutral grew net income 53% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=1255).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.00x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Energy names rated fragile grew net income 38% of the time over the next year (vs 44% for the rest of the cohort, n=602).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.35 → $0.27 (-23.3% / 30d). 2 raised, 6 cut, 9 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$135.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$477.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,484.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: If revenue growth improves, it signals a positive change in the energy sector. This could help BKV's performance.
Confirms:Three-year revenue growth for BKV turns positive, exceeding 2%.
Disproves:Revenue growth remains below 2% or declines further.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for BKV yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
No upside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
No downside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Sixth Amendment to Credit Agreement On May 20, 2026, BKV Corporation (“BKV”), BKV Upstream Midstream, LLC, a Delaware limited liability company (“BKV Upstream Midstream”), and certain of BKV Upstream Midstream’s subsidiaries, as guarantors, entered into a Sixth Amendment to Credit Agreement (the “Sixth Amendment”) with Citibank, N.A., as administrative agent, and the Lenders (as defined in the Sixth Amendment) party thereto. The Sixth Amendment amen…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Oil & Gas Exploration & Production.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
BKV BKV Corp. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 9 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
COP ConocoPhillips | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 89 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
EOG EOG Resources | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 92 of 100 | full | moderate |
OXY Occidental Petroleum | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 85 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
FANG Diamondback Energy | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 58 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
18 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Energy names rated volatile grew net income 45% of the time over the next year (vs 48% for the rest of the cohort, n=252).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLE
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
BKV aims to increase its net production to between 915 and 955 MMcfe/d by the end of 2026.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. BKV's guidance for net production is set at 915-955 MMcfe/d for 2026. The company has consistently aimed to increase production, but the financials do not provide specific production figures to assess progress. Persistent statement, limited substantive delivery this quarter.
“Net production (MMcfe/d) 915 - 955”
“Net production (MMcfe/d) 925 - 975”
BKV plans to manage its capital expenditures within the range of $570 million to $740 million for the fiscal year 2026.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. BKV's capital expenditure guidance for 2026 is set between $570M and $740M. The company has increased its capex range from the previous quarter's guidance of $410M-$560M, indicating a strategic shift towards higher investment. Recurring focus, narrow delivery so far.
“Total capital expenditures $570 - $740”
BKV aims to enhance its cash from operating activities, reflecting improved operational efficiency.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Cash from operating activities increased to $71.99M in 2026-Q1 from $69.39M in 2025-Q4, showing a positive trend in operational efficiency. The trajectory is delivering on this priority.
Why it matters: A shift from headwind to a more favorable regime could improve BKV's outlook. It may indicate better market conditions.
Confirms:Sector regime status changes from headwind to neutral or tailwind.
Disproves:Sector regime status remains a headwind.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. Attached as Exhibit 99.1 is the registrant’s earnings release for the first quarter of 2026, issued May 7, 2026 . This release is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise incorporated by reference into any filing pursuant to the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”), or the Exchange Act, except as otherwi…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Underwriting Agreement On March 10, 2026, BKV Corporation, a Delaware corporation (the “Company”), entered into an Underwriting Agreement (the “Underwriting Agreement”) by and among the Company, Bedrock Energy Partners, LLC, as the selling stockholder (the “selling stockholder”), and RBC Capital Markets, LLC, as the sole underwriter (the “Underwriter”), providing for the offer and sale by the Company and the selling stockholder (the “Offering”), and…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. Attached as Exhibit 99.1 is the registrant’s earnings release for the fourth quarter of 2025, issued February 25, 2026 . This release is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise incorporated by reference into any filing pursuant to the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”), or the Exchange Act, except as…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On February 19, 2026, the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of BKV Corporation (the “Company”) approved the annual performance-based bonus earned for 2025 by each of the Company’s named executive officers (each, an “NEO”). As indicated in footnote (4) to the Summary Compensation Table contained in the information statement on Schedule 14C (File No.…
“Total capital expenditures $410 - $560”
“Cash from operating activities increased to $71.99M”
“Cash from operating activities was $69.39M”
“Cash from operating activities was $74.54M”