Reading BCRX? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track BCRX free→Reading BCRX? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track BCRX free→NASDAQHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. The company was unprofitable over the past year, so its earnings quality can't be assessed. Peer multiples imply a price about 53% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk, as it trades below peer multiples, but recent financials are weak or earnings quality is fragile. Key factors to watch include guidance changes and sector trends, as these could significantly impact the stock's performance. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 4 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $9.06. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $9.06 BCRX trades at 6× p/e, below its 13× p/e peer median. Our $19 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 52% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 62%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated neutral grew net income 50% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3115).
Over the trailing year it converted -0.68x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
18 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Health Care names rated volatile grew net income 43% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=600).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.13 → $0.24 (+83.8% / 30d). 0 raised, 0 cut, 2 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$170.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$395.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,983.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Earnings results will provide insight into financial health and growth prospects. This is critical for assessing performance.
Confirms one read:Earnings report shows revenue growth exceeding 10% year over year.
Confirms the other:Earnings report shows revenue growth below 0% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for BCRX yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Amended and Restated Stock Incentive Plan On June 11, 2026, at the 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders (the “Annual Meeting”) of BioCryst Pharmaceuticals, Inc., a Delaware corporation (the “Company”), the Company’s stockholders approved, by the affirmative vote of a majority of the shares of the Company’s common stock represented in person or by pr…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Pharmaceuticals.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
BCRX BioCryst Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 53 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
LLY Lilly (Eli) | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 88 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
JNJ Johnson & Johnson | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 74 of 100 | expensive | low |
MRK Merck & Co. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 67 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
PFE Pfizer | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 61 of 100 | fair | low |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
The company aims to maintain its 2026 total revenue guidance, including RAPIVAB, between $635 million and $660 million.
The company aims to maintain its 2026 non-GAAP operating expenses guidance between $450 million and $470 million.
Why it matters: Meeting revenue guidance is crucial for BioCryst to stay on track for 2026 targets. It shows the company's ability to recover from the recent decline.
Confirms:Q2 revenue reported at or above $156M.
Disproves:Q2 revenue falls below $156M.
Why it matters: Keeping opex in check is vital for BioCryst to manage costs effectively. It impacts overall financial health.
Confirms:Non-GAAP opex reported within the $450M-$470M range.
Disproves:Non-GAAP opex exceeds $470M.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 6, 2026, BioCryst Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing recent corporate developments and its financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026, which also referenced a conference call and webcast to discuss these recent corporate developments and financial results. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 hereto and is incorporated herein by reference.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 26, 2026, BioCryst Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing recent corporate developments and its financial results for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2025, which also referenced a conference call and webcast to discuss these recent corporate developments and financial results. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 hereto and is incorporated herein by reference.
Completion of Acquisition or Disposition of Assets. On the Closing Date, BioCryst completed the transactions contemplated by the Agreement and Plan of Merger, dated as of October 14, 2025 (the “ Merger Agreement ”), by and among BioCryst, Axel Merger Sub, Inc., a Delaware corporation and a wholly owned subsidiary of BioCryst (“ Merger Sub ”), and Astria Therapeutics, Inc., a Delaware corporation (“ Astria ”). On the Closing Date, Merger Sub merged with and into Astria (the “ Merger ”), with A…
Entry Into a Material Definitive Agreement. On January 23, 2026 (the “ Closing Date ”), BioCryst Pharmaceuticals, Inc., a Delaware corporation (“ BioCryst ”), entered into a Loan Agreement (the “ Loan Agreement ”), by and among BioCryst, as borrower, the guarantors from time to time party thereto, Blackstone Alternative Credit Advisors LP and Blackstone Life Sciences Advisors L.L.C., as the Blackstone representatives thereunder, the lenders from time to time party thereto and Wilmington Trust…