Reading BATL? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track BATL free→Reading BATL? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track BATL free→AMEXEnergyOil & Gas E&pSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. The company was unprofitable over the past year, so its earnings quality can't be assessed. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, with BATL compared to sector peers being below typical. The read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 0 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $1.25. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $2.08 BATL trades at 0× p/s, below its 2× p/s peer median. Our $19 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 89% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about -28%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Energy names rated weak grew net income 60% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=979).
Over the trailing year it converted -0.56x of net income into operating cash flow.
Not enough signal yet.
12 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Energy names rated volatile grew net income 45% of the time over the next year (vs 48% for the rest of the cohort, n=252).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
via XLE
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Not enough price history for this read.
How much price usually moves either way.
Not enough price history for this read.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,956.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
risk label changed from 'elevated' to 'high'.
Total stock risk rose. The sector backdrop faced a headwind. Recent financial performance was weak. Management was volatile and capital unfriendly.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: If Battalion Oil's revenue growth improves, it may show good changes in the energy sector.
Confirms:Revenue growth turns positive and exceeds 2% year over year.
Disproves:Revenue growth remains below 2% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for BATL yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
No upside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
No downside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 13, 2026, Battalion Oil Corporation (the “ Company ”) issued a press release with respect to the Company’s first quarter 2026 financial results. The press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The press release contains certain measures discussed below that may be deemed “ non-GAAP financial measures ” as defined in Item 10 of Regulation S-K of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “ Exchan…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Oil & Gas Exploration & Production.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
BATL Battalion Oil Corp | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 21 of 100 | — | high |
COP ConocoPhillips | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 91 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
EOG EOG Resources | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 95 of 100 | full | moderate |
OXY Occidental Petroleum | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 85 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
FANG Diamondback Energy | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 55 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on completing the acquisition of approximately 7,090 net acres in Ward County, Texas.
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. The acquisition of approximately 7,090 net acres in Ward County, Texas, was completed as an all-stock deal. This strategic move is aimed at expanding the company's asset base. The completion of this acquisition aligns with management's growth strategy.
“The company announced the closing of the acquisition of assets in Ward County, Texas.”
Address financial performance challenges as indicated by recent net losses.
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. Battalion Oil Corp reported a net loss of $56.5 million in the first quarter of 2026, highlighting ongoing financial performance challenges. The company needs to address these losses to improve its financial health. The trajectory indicates a need for strategic cost management and operational efficiency improvements.
“The company reported a net loss of $56.5 million in the first quarter of 2026.”
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On May 5, 2026, Battalion Oil Corporation (the “ Company ,” “ we ” or “ our ”) entered into a Sales Agreement (the “ Sales Agreement ”) with Roth Capital Partners, LLC (the “ Agent ”) pursuant to which the Company may issue and sell, from time to time, up to $150,000,000 of shares of common stock, par value $0.0001 per share (the “ Common Stock ”), through or to the Agent, acting as agent or principal. The Company is not obligated to sell any shares…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On March 23, 2026, Battalion Oil Corporation (the “ Company ”) issued a press release with respect to the Company’s fourth quarter 2025 financial results. The press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The press release contains certain measures discussed below that may be deemed “ non-GAAP financial measures ” as defined in Item 10 of Regulation S-K of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “ Exc…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On March 30, 2026, David Chang notified the Board of Directors (the “ Board ”) of Battalion Oil Corporation (the “ Company ”) of his decision to resign from the Board, including from his position as Chairman of the Compensation Committee and as a member of the Reserves Committee, effective March 31, 2026. Mr. Chang stated in his resignation letter…
Completion of Acquisition or Disposition of Assets On March 19, 2026, Battalion Oil Corporation (the “ Company ”) closed its previously announced Purchase and Sale Agreement (“ PSA ”) with RoadRunner Resource Holding LLC (formerly Sundown Energy LP, “ Sundown ”) to acquire approximately 7,090 net acres in Ward County, Texas. The transaction was completed as an all‑stock deal, with Battalion issuing 485,000 shares of its common stock to Sundown, subject to customary closing adjustments. The ac…