Reading BAER? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track BAER free→Reading BAER? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track BAER free→NASDAQIndustrialsSecurity & Protection ServicesSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. The company was unprofitable over the past year, so its earnings quality can't be assessed. Peer multiples imply a price about 73% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk, as it trades below peer multiples, but recent financials are weak or earnings quality is fragile, historically a value-trap pattern. If BAER cuts guidance on the next call, that's a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 2 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $1.86. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $1.86 BAER trades at 2× p/s, in line with its 2× p/s peer median. Our $6.89 fair value reflects that, low confidence. Analysts: $4.50–$5.00. Not investment advice.
(median $4.50) · 3 analysts · as of 2026-05-20
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price sits about 73% below a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
No fragility gates fired.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated weak grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 62% for the rest of the cohort, n=3678).
Over the trailing year it converted -1.14x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $-0.06 → $-0.03 (+50.0% / 30d). 0 raised, 0 cut, 3 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 143.9% above current price.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$212.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$673.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,893.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: If the industrial sector's revenue growth picks up, it may boost Bridger's performance. This could improve its financial health.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth speeds up to over 5% each year.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth keeps slowing down to below 5% each year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for BAER yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 6, 2026, Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its results of operations for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. On May 6, 2026, the Company held a conference call to discuss its results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026. A transcript of the conference call is furnished as Exhibit 99.2…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Industrials (broad).
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
BAER Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings Inc | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 15 of 100 | inexpensive | high |
CAT Caterpillar Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 52 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
GE GE Aerospace | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 67 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
GEV GE Vernova | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 63 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
RTX RTX Corporation | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 73 of 100 | fair | moderate |
10 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by M&A activity. Historically, Industrials names rated volatile grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=840).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Management aims to achieve revenue guidance of $135 million to $145 million for fiscal year 2026.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue was $8.5M in 2026-Q1, indicating a significant gap to the annual target of $135M-$145M. Persistent statement, limited substantive delivery this quarter.
“The Company reiterates 2026 guidance, including revenue expectations of $135 million to $145 million.”
“Initiating 2026 guidance: Revenue expected to be between $135 million and $145 million.”
Management aims to achieve adjusted EBITDA between $55 million and $60 million for fiscal year 2026.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. No specific EBITDA figures for 2026-Q1 are provided, making it difficult to assess progress towards the $55M-$60M target. Recurring focus, narrow delivery so far.
“Adjusted EBITDA expected to be between $55 million and $60 million.”
Management expects new aircraft to drive substantial revenue and cash flow growth starting in 2026.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. While management expresses confidence in aircraft-driven growth, 2026-Q1 revenue was only $8.5M, showing limited progress towards substantial growth. Persistent statement, limited substantive delivery this quarter.
“We are confident in the potential for these aircraft to generate additional revenue and cash flow growth starting in 2026.”
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Resignation of James Muchmore as Chief Legal Officer and Transition Agreement and General Release On March 20, 2026, James Muchmore, Chief Legal Officer and Executive Vice President of Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”), notified the Company of his decision to resign from his position as Chief Legal Officer and Executive Vice Pr…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Retirement of Eric Gerratt as Chief Financial Officer As previously announced on November 21, 2025, Eric Gerratt, the Chief Financial Officer of Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”), will be resigning from his position as Chief Financial Officer, effective as of March 10, 2026. Mr. Gerratt will continue working with the Company in…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On March 5, 2026, Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its results of operations for the fourth quarter and year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The information furnished pursuant to this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of…
Completion of Acquisition or Disposition of Assets. As previously disclosed in the Current Report on Form 8-K filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission by Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc., a Delaware corporation (the “ Company ”), on November 24, 2025, on November 21, 2025, Albacete Aero, S.L. (the “ Buyer ”), a Spanish sociedad limitada and a wholly-owned subsidiary of the Company, entered into an Aircraft Purchase Agreement (the “ APA ”) with MAB Funding Designated Activity Co…
“Adjusted EBITDA range of $55 million to $60 million.”
“We expect that these aircraft have the potential to drive substantial new revenue and cash flow growth for years to come.”