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NL Industries, Inc. (NL)
NYSEIndustrialsSecurity & Protection ServicesSnapshot 2026-06-16
Intact
$5.95-1.16%
Close 2026-06-16 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is strong, but the company was unprofitable over the past year, so its earnings quality can't be assessed. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, and it has a capital-friendly stance. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, with the company trading below typical for its sector. Peer multiples imply a price about 6% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening, as it is priced roughly in line with peers, but recent financials or earnings quality are weakening. If sector bellwethers like ALLE, MSA, and BCO keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Industrials sector momentum should keep lifting NL and other Industrials names. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-16
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Security & Protection Services
- Market cap
- $294.37M
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 1994-03-02
- Next earnings
- —
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 3 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $5.95. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryfair
$6.31consensus
Range $4.12 – $6.66
vs price: -6% below
Method agreement — · 3 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearfair
$6.20consensus
Range $6.20 – $6.20
vs price: -4% below
Method agreement — · 1 method
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearfair
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Cheap vs peersmedium confidence
At $6.01 NL trades at 2× p/s, below its 2× p/s peer median. Our $6.10 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/S)
1.9x
peer 1.9x · own history —
Premium
1.0x peer
Growth the price needs
-2%
our forecast 5%
Our fair value
$6.10
range $4.02 – $6.53
WhyEarnings too small for P/E
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
fairfair — but weakening12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The price implies about 2% below a flat-multiple fair value, in line with our forecast of about 5%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
No fragility gates fired.
Historical context
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
strongOperating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated strong grew net income 69% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=3696).
95th pctl · Industrials
Earnings quality
loss makingOver the trailing year it converted -0.22x of net income into operating cash flow.
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to long-term interest rates, the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
neutral6 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by M&A activity. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=1113).
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: industrials is in maturing, with decelerating (~3.2 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Secular epoch: Growth by revenue growth · theme aerospace-recovery.headwind-4.1%sector vs S&P 500, 60d
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
AI cycle regime · market-wide
2-axis classifierLong-term · 1–3 yr
Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: neutral
- Capital allocation
- neutral
- Earnings discipline
- weak
- Margin discipline
- neutral
- Balance sheet
- neutral
- Post-call reaction
- neutral
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
as of 2026-06-16
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$153.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$537.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,322.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
elevatedas of 2026-06-16
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideMedium confidenceQuartersactive 4d
Watch for sector revenue growth speeding up again.
Why it matters: If the industrial sector's revenue growth speeds up, it could help NL Industries improve its performance.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Sector revenue growth exceeds 5% year over year.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth remains below 5% year over year.
Sector context
as of 2026-06-15
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for NL yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for impacts from upcoming FOMC decisions
- Watch for revenue growth speeding up in Industrials
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like ALLE, MSA, and BCO keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Industrials sector momentum should keep lifting NL and other Industrials names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for NL and other Industrials names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
Downside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like ALLE, MSA, and BCO start missing or guiding lower, the Industrials tailwind helping NL and other Industrials names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If GDP growth slows materially from the current 2.6% (say, below 2%), it hits NL and other Industrials names harder than the average stock, since the sector is growth-sensitive.
- If NL misses again next quarter like this past one (a big miss of -61% on the 2026-03-31 print), expect continued pressure. The Street usually keeps walking estimates down after consecutive misses.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-2622d agoItem 2.01
Completion of Acquisition or Disposition of Assets. Pursuant to the Plan of Merger, as of the Effective Time the Predecessor Corporation was merged with and into the Company, with the Company continuing as the surviving corporation. Other than the change in the state of incorporation and the associated name change, the Reincorporation did not result in any change in the headquarters, business, management or location of the Company’s facilities or in its assets, liabilities or net worth (o…
M&A activitypositive
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
About the same as last weeklatest as of 2026-06-16
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.