Reading CIX? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
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AMEXIndustrialsSecurity & Protection ServicesSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality is fragile, reported profits aren't backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been steady, while risk is elevated and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 24% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. If CIX cuts guidance on the next call, that's a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $25.86. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $26 CIX trades at 16× p/e, below its 23× p/e peer median. Our $34 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 24% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 5%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated strong grew net income 69% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=3696).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.08x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated fragile grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=3333).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$116.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$380.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,232.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Retail sales data can impact demand for CompX's products. Strong sales could boost revenue expectations.
Confirms:Retail sales increase by more than 1% month over month.
Disproves:Retail sales decline or grow less than 0.5% month over month.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for CIX yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. The registrant hereby furnishes the information set forth in its press release entitled “CompX Reports First Quarter 2026 Results” that the registrant issued on May 5, 2026, a copy of which is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated herein by reference. The press release the registrant furnishes as Exhibit 99.1 to this current report is not deemed “filed” for purposes of section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended,…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Industrials (broad).
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
CIX CompX International, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 68 of 100 | fair | elevated |
CAT Caterpillar Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 52 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
GE GE Aerospace | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 67 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
GEV GE Vernova | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 63 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
RTX RTX Corporation | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 73 of 100 | fair | moderate |
3 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Industrials names rated stable grew net income 60% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=792).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on increasing revenue through strategic initiatives and market expansion.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue grew from $37.7M in 2025-Q4 to $40.6M in 2026-Q1, indicating progress in their growth initiatives. The trajectory shows delivering on revenue growth focus.
“CEO: 'We are committed to driving revenue growth through strategic initiatives.'”
“CEO: 'Our focus remains on revenue growth and market expansion.'”
“CEO: 'Revenue growth is a key priority for us moving forward.'”
Enhance operating income through efficiency improvements and cost management.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Operating income increased from $5.65M in 2025-Q4 to $7.05M in 2026-Q1, reflecting effective cost management and efficiency improvements. The trajectory is delivering on this priority.
“CFO: 'We aim to improve operating income by enhancing efficiency.'”
“CFO: 'Operating income improvement is a key focus through cost management.'”
Focus on enhancing gross profit margins through operational efficiencies.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Gross profit increased from $12.1M in 2025-Q4 to $13.3M in 2026-Q1, indicating progress in enhancing margins through efficiencies. The trajectory is delivering on this priority.
“CEO: 'We are focused on enhancing gross profit margins through efficiencies.'”
Why it matters: If revenue growth picks up, it could signal a recovery for CompX and its peers. This would be a positive sign for the overall health of the industrial sector.
Confirms:Three-year revenue growth in the industrial sector exceeds 7%.
Disproves:Three-year revenue growth remains at or below 5%.
Why it matters: Interest rate changes can affect borrowing costs and investment. This could impact CompX's growth and profitability.
Confirms one read:FOMC raises interest rates by more than 25 basis points.
Confirms the other:FOMC keeps interest rates unchanged or lowers them.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. The registrant hereby furnishes the information set forth in its press release entitled “CompX Reports Fourth Quarter 2025 Results” that the registrant issued on March 4, 2026, a copy of which is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated herein by reference. The press release the registrant furnishes as Exhibit 99.1 to this current report is not deemed “filed” for purposes of section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amende…
Regulation FD Disclosure. The registrant hereby furnishes the information set forth in its press release entitled “CompX Declares Regular Quarterly Dividend ” that the registrant also issued on March 4, 2026, a copy of which is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.2 and incorporated herein by reference. The press release the registrant furnishes as Exhibit 99.2 to this current report is not deemed “filed” for purposes of section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. The registrant hereby furnishes the information set forth in its press release entitled “CompX Reports Third Quarter 2025 Results” that the registrant issued on November 5, 2025, a copy of which is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated herein by reference. The press release the registrant furnishes as Exhibit 99.1 to this current report is not deemed “filed” for purposes of section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amen…
Regulation FD Disclosure. The registrant hereby furnishes the information set forth in its press release entitled “CompX Declares Regular Quarterly Dividend ” that the registrant also issued on November 5, 2025, a copy of which is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.2 and incorporated herein by reference. The press release the registrant furnishes as Exhibit 99.2 to this current report is not deemed “filed” for purposes of section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherw…
“CFO: 'Our strategy includes improving operating income.'”
“CEO: 'Enhancing gross profit margins is a priority through operational efficiencies.'”