Reading BCO? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track BCO free→Reading BCO? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track BCO free→NYSEIndustrialsSecurity & Protection ServicesSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, but the capital stance is capital unfriendly. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, although BCO trades above typical compared to sector peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 60% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, quality intact. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $100.13. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $100 BCO trades at 12× p/e, below its 24× p/e peer median. Our $246 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 60% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 8%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=4882).
Over the trailing year it converted 2.90x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated robust grew net income 64% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3333).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to real (inflation-adjusted) rates, the US dollar, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $2.04 → $2.05 (+0.3% / 30d). 2 raised, 1 cut, 3 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 1 guided quarters · 5.9% avg surprise
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$99.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$259.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,795.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Confidence changed from 'high' to 'medium'.
As of June 16, 2026, confidence changed to medium. Risk fell, indicating a decrease in perceived volatility. The sector backdrop remains a headwind, suggesting challenges in the industry environment.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: This guidance will show if the company can keep growing during tough economic times.
Confirms:Q2 2026 revenue reported within the guidance range of $1,370 to $1,430 million.
Disproves:Q2 2026 revenue falls outside the guidance range.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for BCO yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
of this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”) or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific references in such a filing.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Industrials (broad).
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
BCO Brink's | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 99 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
MTZ MasTec | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 48 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
CW Curtiss-Wright | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 67 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
CRS Carpenter Technology | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 57 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
NVT nVent Electric plc | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 93 of 100 | full | moderate |
7 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=1113).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on strategic initiatives to drive revenue growth.
Continue to increase dividends as part of capital allocation strategy.
Enhance cash flow from operations to strengthen financial position.
Why it matters: Continued growth in AMS/DRS is important for overall revenue and profit health.
Confirms:AMS/DRS organic revenue growth reported at mid-to-high teens for Q2 2026.
Disproves:AMS/DRS revenue growth is below mid-single digits.
Why it matters: This margin growth shows good cost control. It also shows efficient operations.
Confirms:Q2 2026 adjusted EBITDA margin expands by at least 30 basis points.
Disproves:Q2 2026 adjusted EBITDA margin does not expand or contracts.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On April 28, 2026, The Brink’s Company (the “Company”) held its annual meeting of shareholders (the “2026 Annual Meeting”), at which five proposals were submitted to the Company’s shareholders. The proposals are described in detail in the Company’s proxy statement for the 2026 Annual Meeting filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission (the “S…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Amended and Restated Credit Agreement On March 31, 2026, The Brink’s Company, a Virginia corporation (the “ Company ” or “ Brink’s ”), and certain of its subsidiaries as borrowers or guarantors entered into an Amended and Restated Credit Agreement (as amended, restated, amended and restated, modified or supplemented, the “ Amended and Restated Credit Agreement ”) with Bank of America, N.A., as administrative agent thereunder, and the lenders party t…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On April 6, 2026, Adnane Louridi was named Senior Vice President and Global Controller of The Brink’s Company (the “Company”) and will serve as the Company’s Principal Accounting Officer. Mr. Louridi, age 42, previously served as Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Global Automotive at TE Connectivity from 2024 through 2026. Prior to that,…
of this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1, is being furnished and is not deemed to be “filed” with the SEC for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “ Exchange Act ”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section and is not incorporated by reference into any filing of Brink’s under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “ Securities Act ”), or the Exchange Act, whether made before or after the date hereof, except as…