Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings Inc (BAER)
NASDAQIndustrialsSecurity & Protection ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-09
$1.09-0.91%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsSecurity & Protection ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-09
Intact: The reason to own it still holds.
Bridger Aerospace aims for $135M-$145M revenue in 2026. Profit targets are $55M-$60M adjusted EBITDA. New aircraft should help grow revenue and cash flow.
The company missed earnings recently and cut guidance. Growth challenges may hurt revenue targets. Leadership changes add uncertainty.
The price is about 45% below our fair value near $3.64. Analysts expect 23% revenue growth, which is priced in. Our fair value is below the Street median.
Breaks if: adjusted EBITDA falls below $40M in FY26
Deliver full-year 2026 adjusted EBITDA between $55 million and $60 million, representing 27% growth at the midpoint of the range.
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a turnaround story with a medium level of confidence. The company is currently loss-making and faces high risks, but management is focused on achieving growth targets for revenue and adjusted EBITDA in the coming year.
The market appears to have priced in a low expectations gap, indicating that BAER is seen as cheap compared to its peers. However, the overall valuation reflects a justified stance given the company's recent struggles and the current sector headwinds.
Management is on track to meet its revenue and EBITDA targets for 2026, despite recent quarterly fluctuations. However, there is a high probability of missing earnings expectations in the near term, which could impact investor sentiment.
The long-term thesis hinges on management's ability to execute on growth initiatives and the performance of sector bellwethers. If these companies continue to perform well, it could provide a favorable backdrop for BAER.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has weakened. The latest earnings miss has negatively impacted the outlook. This performance sits below its industry peers, raising concerns about future growth.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Management reiterated 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance of $55 million to $60 million, representing 27% growth at midpoint. Adjusted EBITDA was $8.1 million in 2026-Q2, down from $10.8 million in 2025-Q2, reflecting seasonal and operational factors. The trajectory aligns with management's full-year growth expectations despite quarterly fluctuations.
“Adjusted EBITDA of $8.1 million compared to $10.8 million in the second quarter of 2025.”
“Adjusted EBITDA of $(14.5) million compared to $(5.1) million in the first quarter of 2025.”
“Adjusted EBITDA expected to be between $55 million and $60 million.”
Breaks if: no revenue growth from new aircraft in FY26
Expand deployment and utilization of aircraft fleet, including Super Scoopers and Multi-Mission Aircraft, to drive revenue growth in 2026.
Stated as a priority in 2 of last 3 quarters. Management highlighted expanded aircraft utilization with new task orders extending deployment into Q4 and contracts for advanced Multi-Mission Aircraft. While revenue was flat in Q2 2026 versus prior year, excluding non-recurring work revenue increased 16%, indicating progress leveraging aircraft for growth.
“New contracts and longer task orders continue to expand Company’s footprint; longest guaranteed task orders in history for Super Scoopers.”
“Continued progress on fleet expansion, including modification of additional surveillance aircraft with next-generation technology.”
Breaks if: revenue falls below $105M in FY26
Deliver full-year 2026 revenue between $135 million and $145 million, representing 14% growth at midpoint and 29% growth excluding non-recurring return-to-service work.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Management reiterated 2026 revenue guidance of $135 million to $145 million, representing 14% growth at midpoint and 29% growth excluding non-recurring return-to-service work. Second quarter 2026 revenue was $30.5 million, essentially flat versus $30.8 million in second quarter 2025, reflecting seasonal and operational factors. The trajectory is consistent with management's stated growth expectations for the full year.
“The Company reiterates 2026 guidance, including revenue expectations of $135 million to $145 million.”
“Reiterating full year 2026 guidance: Revenue expected to be between $135 million and $145 million.”
“The Company reiterates 2026 guidance, including revenue expectations of $135 million to $145 million.”
Over the next 1 to 3 years, BAER's performance will depend heavily on its execution against growth targets and external market conditions. Not investment advice.