Reading AXSM? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track AXSM free→Reading AXSM? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track AXSM free→NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak. Earnings quality cannot be assessed since the company was unprofitable over the past year. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, AXSM is below typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 81% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified. Rich on today's multiple, but the three-year horizon reads cheaper once expected earnings growth is included. Watch sector bellwethers like VRTX, REGN, and ARGX for early signals. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 2 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $255.17. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $255 AXSM trades at 23× p/s — 2.4× the 9× p/s peer median. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $128 fair value is low-confidence here. Analysts: $200–$380. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 100% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 67%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Flags: expensive valuation, a turbulent sector regime (Heating).
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated weak grew net income 55% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=2391).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.38x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
7 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by legal/regulatory items. Historically, Health Care names rated neutral grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 50% for the rest of the cohort, n=842).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $-0.87 → $-0.82 (+6.2% / 30d). 1 raised, 3 cut, 8 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 95% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 54.3% above current price.
0 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$129.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$296.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,850.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: This will show if Axsome is on track to increase revenue growth as planned.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth reported above 10% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth reported below 5% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for AXSM yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. The Compensation Committee (the “Committee”) of the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of Axsome Therapeutics, Inc. (the “Company”) approved the adoption of the Axsome Therapeutics, Inc. Executive Severance and Change in Control Plan (the “Severance Plan”), effective on June 5, 2026, which provides for severance benefits to certain key employees, inc…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
$200.00 – $380.00 (median $254.50) · 26 analysts · as of 2026-06-11
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Biotechnology.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
AXSM Axsome Therapeutics, Inc. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 22 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
ABBV AbbVie | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 85 of 100 | fair | low |
AMGN Amgen | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 78 of 100 | full | moderate |
GILD Gilead Sciences | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 100 of 100 | fair | moderate |
VRTX Vertex Pharmaceuticals | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 80 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on increasing revenue through strategic initiatives and product expansion.
Aim to improve operating income through cost management and efficiency.
Focus on resolving the SUNOSI patent litigation to mitigate legal risks.
Why it matters: Resolving the patent issue could boost revenue growth and improve investor confidence.
Confirms:A press release says the SUNOSI patent lawsuits ended well.
Disproves:More delays or bad news in the SUNOSI patent lawsuits.
Other Events. On June 3, 2026, Axsome Therapeutics, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release entitled “Axsome Therapeutics Announces Settlement Resolving All SUNOSI ® (solriamfetol) Patent Litigation.” The full text of the press release is filed as Exhibit 99.1 hereto and is incorporated herein by reference.
of this Current Report on Form 8-K (including Exhibit 99.1 hereto), shall not be deemed “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference into any filing made by the Company under the Exchange Act or Securities Act of 1933, as amended, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing.
of this Current Report on Form 8-K (including Exhibit 99.1 hereto), shall not be deemed “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference into any filing made by the Company under the Exchange Act or Securities Act of 1933, as amended, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing.
Other Events. On February 17, 2026, Axsome Therapeutics, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing that it has entered into a settlement agreement with Alkem Laboratories Ltd. (Alkem) resolving patent litigation related to Axsome’s product SUNOSI ® (solriamfetol). The litigation, which is pending in the United States District Court for the District of New Jersey, resulted from submission by Alkem of an Abbreviated New Drug Application to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration seek…