Axsome Therapeutics, Inc. (AXSM)

NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-10-23

$145.04-7.07%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Axsome Therapeutics, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-11.8% · beyond scale

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

4.48 → 3.95 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 13 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 14 to 13; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	290.54M
EPS	—	-0.04
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	950.9M
EPS	—	-2.903
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	1.51B
EPS	—	3.953

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Operating income improves toward -$63.36 million by 2026-Q1	It improved operating income from -$78M to -$63M recently.	Intact	Operating income remains worse than -$63.36 million in 2026-Q1	Operating income: $-49.646M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=-63.36 USD millions. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 10, 2026-49,646,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 3448f810-19dc-42b2-8c96-528999333807. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue reaches at least $638.5 million in 2026	A primary condition in Axsome Therapeutics, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=638.5 USD millions.	Broken	Revenue falls below $638.5 million in 2026	Revenue: $218.375M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=638.5 USD millions. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 10, 2026218,375,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 3448f810-19dc-42b2-8c96-528999333807. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Total net product revenue grew from $191.2 million in 2026-Q1 to $218.4 million in 2026-Q2, representing 46-57% year-over-year growth. AUVELITY sales increased 51% year-over-year in 2Q 2026, and SYMBRAVO sales grew 461% year-over-year. The trajectory is delivering robust commercial growth consistent with management's stated focus. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Patent litigation on SUNOSI is fully resolved	The company settled SUNOSI patent lawsuits, reducing legal risks.	Intact	New patent litigation or unresolved legal issues arise on SUNOSI	Litigation resolved vs target mid-2026 8-K filed June 3, 2026, announces settlement resolving all SUNOSI patent litigation. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Management announced full resolution of SUNOSI patent litigation in 2026-Q2, settling with the last remaining generic applicant. This settlement removes pending litigation risks and secures exclusivity through 2040, matching management's stated objective. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$3.95

$5.25 → $3.95 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$1.51B

$1.58B → $1.51B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$5.25	$1,578,441,583	13 / 16
2026-07-25	$5.25	$1,578,441,583	13 / 16
2026-07-26	$5.25	$1,578,441,583	13 / 16
2026-07-27	$5.85	$1,596,367,450	11 / 21
2026-07-28	$5.85	$1,596,367,450	11 / 21
2026-07-29	$5.85	$1,596,367,450	11 / 21
2026-07-30	$5.85	$1,596,367,450	11 / 21
2026-07-31	$5.85	$1,596,367,450	11 / 21
2026-08-01	$5.85	$1,596,367,450	11 / 21
2026-08-02	$5.80	$1,596,367,450	11 / 21
2026-08-03	$5.80	$1,596,367,450	11 / 21
2026-08-04	$5.44	$1,596,236,583	13 / 16
2026-08-05	$5.80	$1,596,367,450	11 / 21
2026-08-06	$5.80	$1,596,367,450	11 / 21
2026-08-07	$5.44	$1,596,236,583	13 / 16
2026-08-08	$5.80	$1,596,367,450	11 / 21
2026-08-09	$5.80	$1,596,367,450	11 / 21
2026-08-10	$5.80	$1,596,367,450	11 / 21
2026-08-11	$5.80	$1,596,367,450	11 / 21
2026-08-12	$5.80	$1,596,367,450	11 / 21
2026-08-13	$5.59	$1,571,590,300	10 / 19
2026-08-14	$5.44	$1,596,236,583	13 / 16
2026-08-15	$5.44	$1,596,236,583	13 / 16
2026-08-16	$5.44	$1,596,236,583	13 / 16
2026-08-17	$5.44	$1,596,236,583	13 / 16
2026-08-18	$5.44	$1,596,236,583	13 / 16
2026-08-19	$5.44	$1,596,236,583	13 / 16
2026-08-20	$5.44	$1,596,236,583	13 / 16
2026-08-21	$4.72	$1,562,140,971	14 / 16
2026-08-22	$4.72	$1,562,140,971	14 / 16
2026-08-23	$4.72	$1,562,140,971	14 / 16
2026-08-24	$4.72	$1,562,140,971	14 / 16
2026-08-25	$4.66	$1,562,101,421	14 / 16
2026-08-26	$4.66	$1,562,101,421	14 / 16
2026-08-27	$4.66	$1,562,101,421	14 / 16
2026-08-28	$4.66	$1,562,101,421	14 / 16
2026-08-29	$4.66	$1,562,101,421	14 / 16
2026-08-30	$4.66	$1,562,101,421	14 / 16
2026-08-31	$4.66	$1,562,101,421	14 / 16
2026-09-01	$4.66	$1,562,101,421	14 / 16
2026-09-02	$4.66	$1,562,101,421	14 / 16
2026-09-03	$4.66	$1,562,101,421	14 / 16
2026-09-04	$4.66	$1,562,101,421	14 / 16
2026-09-05	$4.66	$1,562,101,421	14 / 16
2026-09-06	$4.66	$1,562,101,421	14 / 16
2026-09-07	$4.66	$1,562,101,421	14 / 16
2026-09-08	$4.66	$1,562,101,421	14 / 16
2026-09-09	$4.66	$1,562,101,421	14 / 16
2026-09-10	$4.66	$1,562,101,421	14 / 16
2026-09-11	$4.66	$1,562,101,421	14 / 16
2026-09-12	$4.66	$1,562,351,421	14 / 16
2026-09-13	$4.66	$1,562,351,421	14 / 16
2026-09-14	$4.66	$1,562,351,421	14 / 16
2026-09-15	$4.66	$1,562,351,421	14 / 16
2026-09-16	$4.66	$1,562,351,421	14 / 16
2026-09-17	$4.66	$1,562,351,421	14 / 16
2026-09-18	$4.66	$1,562,351,421	14 / 16
2026-09-19	$4.66	$1,562,351,421	14 / 16
2026-09-20	$4.66	$1,562,351,421	14 / 16
2026-09-21	$4.66	$1,562,351,421	14 / 16
2026-09-22	$4.66	$1,562,351,421	14 / 16
2026-09-23	$4.66	$1,562,351,421	14 / 16
2026-09-24	$4.48	$1,551,715,639	14 / 16
2026-09-25	$4.48	$1,542,491,830	14 / 16
2026-09-26	$4.49	$1,538,714,019	14 / 16
2026-09-27	$4.49	$1,538,714,019	14 / 16
2026-09-28	$4.49	$1,538,714,019	14 / 16
2026-09-29	$4.49	$1,538,714,019	14 / 16
2026-09-30	$4.49	$1,538,714,019	14 / 16
2026-10-01	$4.49	$1,538,714,019	14 / 16
2026-10-02	$4.51	$1,538,475,942	14 / 16
2026-10-03	$4.51	$1,538,475,942	14 / 16
2026-10-04	$4.51	$1,538,475,942	14 / 16
2026-10-05	$4.51	$1,538,475,942	14 / 16
2026-10-06	$4.51	$1,538,475,942	14 / 16
2026-10-07	$4.51	$1,538,475,923	14 / 16
2026-10-08	$4.51	$1,538,475,942	14 / 16
2026-10-09	$4.48	$1,536,516,419	14 / 16
2026-10-10	$4.48	$1,536,516,419	14 / 16
2026-10-11	$4.48	$1,536,516,419	14 / 16
2026-10-12	$4.48	$1,536,516,419	14 / 16
2026-10-13	$4.33	$1,527,430,995	14 / 16
2026-10-14	$4.27	$1,522,961,428	14 / 16
2026-10-15	$4.26	$1,522,032,857	14 / 16
2026-10-16	$4.18	$1,519,753,447	14 / 16
2026-10-17	$4.18	$1,519,753,447	14 / 16
2026-10-18	$3.96	$1,505,543,924	14 / 16
2026-10-19	$3.96	$1,505,543,924	14 / 16
2026-10-20	$3.96	$1,505,543,924	14 / 16
2026-10-21	$3.96	$1,505,543,924	14 / 16
2026-10-22	$3.96	$1,505,543,924	14 / 16
2026-10-23	$3.96	$1,505,543,924	13 / 15
2026-10-24	$3.95	$1,505,016,590	13 / 15

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	20	1
2026-06-01	20	1
2026-07-01	20	1
2026-08-01	20	1
2026-09-01	21	1
2026-10-01	21	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 21 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades3 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 3 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

RBC CapitalOct 8 · prior Aug 11

$297.00 → $295.00-0.7%

Deutsche BankSep 29 · prior May 5

$280.00 → $267.00-4.6%

Morgan StanleySep 25 · prior Aug 11

$251.00 → $247.00-1.6%

$0$163.35$326.70

0 raises · 3 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Operating income improves toward -$63.36 million by 2026-Q1Operating income: $-49.646M
Revenue reaches at least $638.5 million in 2026Published status: Broken

Next proof point

Nov 2, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.3%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-43.2%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Axsome Therapeutics, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

AXSM is a commercial-growth and pipeline-development story, not a proven profitable compounder: it is currently loss-making, while product revenue is growing quickly. The long-term thesis is intact but in a watch state, with the recent signal shifting from mildly favorable to mixed.

What's priced into Axsome Therapeutics, Inc.

The valuation is at a premium to peers, and the evidence tags that premium as justified, with no fragility flags. However, the expectations gap is negative and model confidence is low, so the available evidence does not support a precise view of how much optimism is already reflected.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, revenue growth has been strong: total net product revenue rose from $191.2 million in the first quarter of 2026 to $218.4 million in the second, while AUVELITY and SYMBRAVO also posted substantial year-over-year growth. Pipeline work is advancing, including FDA acceptance of the AXS-12 application, but execution is mixed; recent results have been weak relative to the industry, and the next earnings report carries elevated miss risk.

What Axsome Therapeutics, Inc. hinges on

Over the next few quarters, the thesis hinges on continued product growth and execution without a guidance cut, which the evidence identifies as a meaningful negative scenario. Over the multi-year view, pipeline progress and the resolved SUNOSI patent litigation support the case, while weaker employment data could weigh on the healthcare sector and stronger results from sector peers could support its momentum.