Reading ASRT? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ASRT free→Reading ASRT? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ASRT free→NASDAQHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral. Earnings quality is not assessable since the company is unprofitable. Management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent changes. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 67% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk. This pattern occurs because it trades below peer multiples, but recent financials are weak. The read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 2 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $23.50. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $24 ASRT trades at 2× p/s, below its 3× p/s peer median. Our $76 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Analysts: $18–$24. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 69% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about -13%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated neutral grew net income 50% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3115).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.20x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
13 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by M&A activity. Historically, Health Care names rated volatile grew net income 43% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=600).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $-0.14 → $-1.10 (-685.7% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 1 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 25% of analysts rate Buy.
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$72.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$427.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,796.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: If healthcare revenue growth picks up, it could help Assertio's performance. The sector is currently in a maturing phase.
Confirms:Healthcare sector revenue growth rises back toward 10% year over year.
Disproves:Healthcare sector revenue growth continues to slow below 5% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for ASRT yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Agreement and Plan of Merger On May 13, 2026, Assertio Holdings, Inc. (the “ Company ” or “ Assertio ”) entered into an Agreement and Plan of Merger (the “ Merger Agreement ”) with Zydus Worldwide DMCC, a limited liability company incorporated under the laws of the United Arab Emirates (“ Parent ”), Zara Merger Sub Inc., a Delaware corporation and a wholly-owned subsidiary of Parent (“ Purchaser ”) and, solely for purposes of Section 9.20 of the Mer…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
$18.00 – $23.50 (median $19.90) · 4 analysts · as of 2026-05-13
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Pharmaceuticals.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
ASRT Assertio Holdings Inc | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 32 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
LLY Lilly (Eli) | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 88 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
JNJ Johnson & Johnson | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 74 of 100 | expensive | low |
MRK Merck & Co. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 67 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
PFE Pfizer | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 61 of 100 | fair | low |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on strategic acquisitions to enhance growth and market position.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Assertio has been actively pursuing acquisitions, as evidenced by the Merger Agreement with Zydus Worldwide DMCC and the Amended Merger Agreement with Garda Therapeutics. Despite these strategic moves, revenue has declined from $49.46M in 2025-Q3 to $9.93M in 2026-Q1, indicating limited progress in reversing revenue decline.
“Assertio entered into a Merger Agreement with Zydus Worldwide DMCC.”
“Amended and Restated Agreement and Plan of Merger with Garda Therapeutics.”
“Agreement and Plan of Merger with Garda Therapeutics.”
Focus on improving cash flow from operations to strengthen financial stability.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Cash from operating activities improved from -$29.97M in 2025-Q4 to $8.56M in 2026-Q1, indicating progress in strengthening financial stability. However, net income remains negative, suggesting ongoing challenges in achieving profitability.
“Cash from operating activities improved to $8.56M.”
Implement capital allocation strategies to optimize shareholder value.
Newly stated in 2026-Q2. Assertio announced a share buyback on May 13, 2026, as part of its capital allocation strategy. While this move aims to optimize shareholder value, the company's financials show a net income decline from $11.45M in 2025-Q3 to -$18.86M in 2026-Q1, indicating limited progress in financial performance.
“Assertio announced a share buyback.”
Other Events. On May 13, 2026, Assertio Holdings, Inc. (the “ Company ” or “ Assertio ”) entered into an Agreement and Plan of Merger (the “ Merger Agreement ”) with Zydus Worldwide DMCC, a limited liability company incorporated under the laws of the United Arab Emirates (“ Parent ”), Zara Merger Sub Inc., a Delaware corporation and a wholly-owned subsidiary of Parent (“ Purchaser ”) and, solely for purposes of Section 9.20 of the Merger Agreement, Zydus Pharmaceuticals (USA) Inc., a New Jers…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Amended and Restated Agreement and Plan of Merger On May 1, 2026, Assertio Holdings, Inc. (the “ Company ” or “ Assertio ”) entered into an Amended and Restated Agreement and Plan of Merger (the “ Amended and Restated Merger Agreement ”) with Garda Therapeutics, Inc., a Delaware corporation (“ Parent ”), and Audi Merger Sub, Inc., a Delaware corporation and a wholly owned subsidiary of Parent (“ Purchaser ”), which amends and restates in its entiret…
Termination of a Material Definitive Agreement. As previously disclosed, the Company entered into an Amended and Restated Agreement and Plan of Merger on May 1, 2026 (the “ Garda Merger Agreement ”) with Garda Therapeutics, Inc., a Delaware corporation (“ Garda ”) and Audi Merger Sub, Inc., a Delaware corporation and a wholly-owned subsidiary of Garda. Following the Board’s determination, after consultation with its outside legal counsel and its financial advisors, that it had received a “Sup…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. (e) At the Annual Meeting, the Company’s stockholders approved an amendment and restatement to the Company’s Amended and Restated 2014 Omnibus Incentive Plan (as so amended, the “2014 Plan”) to increase the number of shares available for issuance thereunder by 400,000 shares. For additional information regarding the 2014 Plan, please refer to the h…
“Cash from operating activities was -$29.97M.”