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Apellis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (APLS)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-06-16
Intact
$41.030.00%
Close 2026-05-14 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is strong, but management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. Earnings quality is fragile, indicating that reported profits aren't backed by cash. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, which may impact future performance. Compared with sector peers, APLS trades above typical levels, and its valuation is expensive. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-16
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Health Care
- Industry
- Biotechnology
- Market cap
- $5.25B
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 2015-10-13
- Next earnings
- —
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 0 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $41.03. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primary—
—consensus
Range — – —
vs price: —
Method agreement —
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-year—
—consensus
Range — – —
vs price: —
Method agreement —
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-year—
—
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
no read12-month view
Not enough valuation methods to set a 12-month read yet.
Compared to peers
Not enough peers to compare yet.
Compared to its own history
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
P/E
—
EV/EBITDA
—
FCF yield
—
Earnings yield (TTM)
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
strongOperating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated strong grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=2344).
78th pctl · Health Care
Earnings quality
fragileOver the trailing year it converted 0.28x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Health Care names rated fragile grew net income 40% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=1703).
20th pctl · Health Care
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
volatileEarnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Strongly bearishEPS revised -4.0% / 30d, n=13for period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $-0.32 → $-0.33 (-4.0% / 30d). 0 raised, 2 cut, 13 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 5% of analysts rate Buy.
Divergence: fundamentals are strong but estimates are being cut. Worth reading the recent material events.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: health care is in maturing, with decelerating (~0.5 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: neutral
- Capital allocation
- neutral
- Earnings discipline
- neutral
- Margin discipline
- neutral
- Balance sheet
- weak
- Post-call reaction
- strong
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
as of 2026-06-16
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$98.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$425.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,353.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
elevatedas of 2026-06-16
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideHigh confidenceMonthsactive 11d
Watch for completion of acquisition by Biogen
Why it matters: The acquisition will change Apellis' structure and strategy. This affects future growth.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:An official announcement confirms the acquisition is done. Trading will start again.
Disproves:There are more delays or problems with the acquisition process.
Management priorities
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for APLS yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth re-acceleration in Health Care
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like VRTX, REGN, and ARGX keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Healthcare sector momentum should keep lifting APLS and other Healthcare names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If APLS raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-03-31), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
- If APLS beats again next quarter like it did this past one (a very large beat off a near-zero prior-year base on the 2026-03-31 print), the momentum tends to extend, with Street estimates ratcheting up and the stock typically following.
Downside triggers
- If APLS cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-03-31), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like VRTX, REGN, and ARGX start missing or guiding lower, the Healthcare tailwind helping APLS and other Healthcare names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-141mo agoItem 3.01
Notice of Delisting or Failure to Satisfy a Continued Listing Rule or Standard; Transfer of Listing. On May 13, 2026, the Company (i) notified The Nasdaq Stock Market (“Nasdaq”) of the anticipated consummation of the Merger and (ii) requested that Nasdaq (x) suspend trading of the Shares, effective at 8:00 p.m., Eastern Time, on May 13, 2026, and, following the Effective Time, (y) file with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) a Form 25, Notification of Removal from Listing…
Legal / regulatorynegative
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
About the same as last weeklatest as of 2026-06-16
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.