Reading AMTX? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track AMTX free→Reading AMTX? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track AMTX free→NASDAQMaterialsSpecialty ChemicalsSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and earnings quality cannot be assessed since the company was unprofitable over the past year. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, but risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 62% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk, as it trades below peer multiples while recent financials are weak. If AMTX cuts guidance on the next call, that could have a meaningful negative impact. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 1 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $1.94. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $1.91 AMTX trades at 1× p/s, below its 1× p/s peer median. Our $4.96 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 62% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about -2%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Crisis) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Materials names rated weak grew net income 51% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=1088).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.10x of net income into operating cash flow.
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, the broad stock market, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
6 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Materials names rated neutral grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=272).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $-0.35 → $-0.24 (+31.3% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 3 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 75% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$370.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$847.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $6,218.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: The materials sector is in decline. Positive revenue growth could signal a recovery for Aemetis.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth turns positive after being near -1 percent.
Disproves:Sector revenue keeps going down. This shows there are still challenges ahead.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for AMTX yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 7, 2026, Aemetis, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its earnings for the three months ended March 31, 2026. The press release is being furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. This Form 8-K and Exhibit 99.1 hereto shall be deemed “furnished” and not “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, and shall not be incorpo…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Specialty Chemicals.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
AMTX Aemetis Inc | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 26 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
SHW Sherwin-Williams | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 66 of 100 | full | moderate |
ECL Ecolab | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 83 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
PPG PPG Industries | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 90 of 100 | fair | moderate |
LYB LyondellBasell | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 55 of 100 | — | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLB
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on significantly improving Low Carbon Fuel Standard revenues during later quarters of 2026.
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. The company has set a priority to improve Low Carbon Fuel Standard revenues later in 2026. However, the financials for 2026-Q1 show a gross profit of $2.76 million and a net income of -$21.71 million, indicating limited progress so far. The trajectory remains to be seen as the year progresses.
“We expect to significantly improve our Low Carbon Fuel Standard revenues during later quarters of 2026.”
Aemetis aims for meaningful growth in revenue and cash flow throughout 2026.
Newly stated in 2025-Q4. Revenue increased from $43.31 million in 2025-Q4 to $54.62 million in 2026-Q1, indicating some progress towards the goal of meaningful growth. However, net income remains negative at -$21.71 million in 2026-Q1, suggesting challenges in achieving cash flow growth.
The company has authorized a share repurchase program of up to $80 million.
Newly stated in 2025-Q4. The company announced a share repurchase program of up to $80 million. However, there is no evidence of share buybacks in the financials for 2026-Q1, indicating no progress on this initiative yet.
“The Board authorized a share repurchase program under which the Company may repurchase up to $80 million of its outstanding common stock.”
Why it matters: The earnings report will show if Aemetis can improve its loss-making status. Investors will look for signs of recovery.
Confirms one read:The earnings report shows smaller losses. It may also show profits again.
Confirms the other:The earnings report shows bigger losses. There is no improvement in financial numbers.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On March 12, 2026, Aemetis, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its earnings for the three and twelve months ended December 31, 2025. The press release is being furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. This Form 8-K and Exhibit 99.1 hereto shall be deemed “furnished” and not “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, and sha…
Changes in Registrant ’ s Certifying Accountant On March 10, 2026, the Audit Committee (the “Audit Committee”) of the Board of Directors of Aemetis, Inc. (the “Company”) approved the engagement of KPMG LLP (“KPMG”) as the Company’s independent registered public accounting firm, beginning with the review of the Company’s financial statements for the quarter ending March 31, 2026, and including the audit of the Company’s consolidated financial statements for the fiscal year ending December 31,…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On February 4, 2026, Aemetis Biogas LLC ("ABGL"), a subsidiary of Aemetis, Inc., entered into an agreement, effective as of December 31, 2025, entitled Eleventh Waiver and Amendment to Series A Preferred Unit Purchase Agreement ("PUPA Eleventh Amendment"), with Protair-X Technologies Inc. ("Holder") and Third Eye Capital Corporation, as agent for the Holder. The Holder owns 100% of the Series A Preferred Units of ABGL (the "Preferred Units") pursuan…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On January 22, 2026, the Governance, Compensation and Nominating Committee (the “Committee”) of the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of Aemetis, Inc. (the “Company”) approved the annual payment of a guarantee fee in the amount of $350,000 to McAfee Capital LLC, an entity 100% owned and controlled by Eric A. McAfee, the Company’s Chairman and Chief Executive Officer. The fee is paid in consideration of personal guarantees provided by Mr. McAfee and h…
“We believe Aemetis is positioned for meaningful growth in revenue and cash flow as we move through 2026.”