Reading AMSC? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track AMSC free→Reading AMSC? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track AMSC free→NASDAQIndustrialsSpecialty Industrial MachinerySnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is fragile, reported profits aren't backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, but the capital stance is capital unfriendly, indicating less shareholder-friendly actions. Risk is high, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, which may affect future performance. Peer multiples imply a price about 74% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich, as it trades above peer multiples, and the longer horizon does not make that back through growth. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $41.07. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $41 AMSC trades at 12× p/e, below its 24× p/e peer median. Our $20 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 101% of near-term growth above a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Flags: expensive valuation, weak execution quality.
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=4882).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.17x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated fragile grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=3333).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.23 → $0.21 (-12.0% / 30d). 1 raised, 1 cut, 3 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$423.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$743.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $6,108.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Earnings reports can reveal important details about AMSC's performance and future plans. This could impact investor sentiment.
Confirms one read:Earnings report shows revenue growth exceeding 10% year over year.
Confirms the other:Earnings report shows revenue growth below 0% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for AMSC yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
of this Current Report on Form 8-K (including Exhibit 99.1) shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “ Exchange Act ”) or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
AMSC American Superconductor Corp. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 47 of 100 | expensive | high |
PH Parker Hannifin | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 78 of 100 | full | moderate |
ITW Illinois Tool Works | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 89 of 100 | fair | moderate |
GWW W. W. Grainger | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 77 of 100 | full | moderate |
DOV Dover Corporation | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 63 of 100 | fair | low |
8 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=1113).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
AMSC aims to exceed $85 million in revenue for the first quarter of fiscal 2026.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue grew from $66.65M in 2025-Q4 to $86.41M in 2026-Q4, showing strong growth. The trajectory is delivering on the stated revenue target for Q1 2026.
“AMSC expects that its revenues will exceed $80.0 million.”
“AMSC expects that its revenues will exceed $85.0 million.”
AMSC aims to achieve non-GAAP net income exceeding $8 million for the first quarter of fiscal 2026.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Net income increased from $1.21M in 2025-Q4 to $4.53M in 2026-Q4, indicating progress towards the $8M target. The trajectory shows improvement but further growth is needed to meet the target.
AMSC aims to achieve earnings per share exceeding $0.07 for the first quarter of fiscal 2026.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. EPS increased from $0.06 in 2025-Q3 to $2.62 in 2026-Q3, showing significant improvement. The trajectory is delivering on the EPS target for Q1 2026.
“The Company’s net income for Q4 2025 is expected to exceed $0.07 per share.”
Why it matters: If revenue growth speeds up, it could signal a recovery in the industrial sector. This would be positive for AMSC's outlook.
Confirms:Revenue growth in the industrial sector rises above 7% year over year.
Disproves:Revenue growth remains below 5% year over year.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. ( e) Fiscal 2026 Executive Incentive Plan . On June 1, 2026, the Compensation Committee (the “ Committee ”) of the Board of Directors (the " Board ") of American Superconductor Corporation (the “ Company ”) and the Board approved an executive incentive plan for the Company’s fiscal year ending March 31, 2027 (“ fiscal 2026 ”). Participants in the p…
of this Current Report on Form 8-K (including Exhibit 99.1) shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “ Exchange Act ”) or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing.
Completion of Acquisition or Disposition of Assets. The information set forth in
Other Events. On December 23, 2025, American Superconductor Corporation (the “ Company ”) filed a prospectus supplement with the Securities and Exchange Commission (the “ SEC ”) relating to shares of the Company’s common stock to be sold from time to time by certain selling stockholders of the Company. The prospectus supplement forms a part of the Company’s Registration Statement on Form S-3 (Reg. No. 333-281496), which was filed with the SEC and became effective on August 12, 2024. Latham &…
“The Company's non-GAAP net income is expected to exceed $8.0 million.”
“The Company's non-GAAP net income is expected to exceed $8.0 million.”
“The Company’s net income for Q1 2026 is expected to exceed $0.07 per share.”