Reading AMLX? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track AMLX free→Reading AMLX? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track AMLX free→NASDAQHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and management's recent track record has been steady. The company was unprofitable over the past year, so its earnings quality can't be assessed. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, with AMLX trading below typical compared to sector peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 506% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich, as it trades above peer multiples, and the longer horizon does not make that back through growth. This analysis is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 1 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $15.05. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
We can't anchor a clean multiple for AMLX right now, so treat our $2.48 fair value as low-confidence. Analysts: $19–$34. Not investment advice.
$19.00 – $34.00 (median $21.00) · 3 analysts · as of 2026-06-08
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 512% of near-term growth above a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Flags: expensive valuation, a turbulent sector regime (Heating).
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated neutral grew net income 50% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3115).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.80x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates.
3 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by M&A activity. Historically, Health Care names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=618).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $-0.35 → $-0.35 (+1.8% / 30d). 2 raised, 2 cut, 8 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 92% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 155.3% above current price.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$255.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$555.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,061.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show if revenue trends are improving or worsening. This is key for understanding the company's future.
Confirms one read:Earnings report shows revenue growth above 5% year over year.
Confirms the other:Earnings report shows revenue decline year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for AMLX yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 7, 2026, Amylyx Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K (the “Form 8-K”). The information provided in this Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1 hereto, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
Not enough peers to compare yet.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Pharmaceuticals.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
AMLX Amylyx Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 18 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
LLY Lilly (Eli) | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 88 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
JNJ Johnson & Johnson | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 74 of 100 | expensive | low |
MRK Merck & Co. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 67 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
PFE Pfizer | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 61 of 100 | fair | low |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Maintain a cash runway into 2028 based on current operating plans.
Complete recruitment for the Phase 3 LUCIDITY trial of avexitide by Q1 2026.
Develop AMX0318, a GLP-1 receptor antagonist, for post-bariatric hypoglycemia and other rare diseases.
Why it matters: The health care sector is slowing. If growth re-accelerates, it could help Amylyx's outlook.
Confirms:Health care sector revenue growth is speeding up again. It is close to 10% year over year.
Disproves:Health care sector revenue growth continues to decelerate below 5% year over year.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On March 3, 2026, Amylyx Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter and fiscal year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K (the “Form 8-K”). The information provided in this Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1 hereto, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1…
of this Current Report on Form 8-K and in Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”) or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall they be deemed incorporated by reference into any filing by the Company, under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing. F…
Other Events On January 8, 2026, Amylyx Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (the “Company”) announced the selection of AMX0318, a long-acting glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) receptor antagonist, as a development candidate for post-bariatric hypoglycemia and other rare diseases. AMX0318 was identified through a research collaboration with Gubra A/S (“Gubra”), a company specializing in peptide-based drug discovery and preclinical contract research services. Under the terms of the research collaboration, Gubr…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On November 6, 2025, Amylyx Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the fiscal quarter ended September 30, 2025. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 hereto. The information provided in this Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subjec…