Reading ALTO? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ALTO free→Reading ALTO? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ALTO free→NASDAQMaterialsSpecialty ChemicalsSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
As of June 16, 2026, ALTO shows a stable management track record and robust earnings quality, while recent financial performance is neutral and risk is elevated. The sector backdrop is a headwind, which may impact its performance compared to peers, where it is typical. Peer multiples imply a price roughly in line with where it trades (about fair), and the read is fair, but weakening, as it is priced roughly in line with peers, but recent financials or earnings quality are weakening. Key factors to watch include guidance changes and sector trends, as these could significantly influence ALTO's outlook. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $4.84. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $5.70, ALTO's earnings are too small for P/E to mean much; on sales it trades at 64× p/e (3.1× the 21× p/e peer median). At a normal multiple the price implies ~21% near-term growth vs our ~-5% forecast. That gap is an optionality premium a financial-multiple model can't price — our $4.70 fair value covers only the as-is business, low confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 0% near-term growth, in line with our forecast of about -5%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Materials names rated neutral grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1462).
Over the trailing year it converted 2.24x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Materials names rated robust grew net income 64% of the time over the next year (vs 49% for the rest of the cohort, n=988).
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, the broad stock market, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
2 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Materials names rated stable grew net income 45% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=210).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.08 → $0.07 (-12.5% / 30d). 1 raised, 0 cut, 1 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 0% of the last 1 guided quarters · -15.8% avg surprise
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$182.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$592.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,862.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Valuation label changed from 'full' to 'fair'.
As of June 16, 2026, the valuation changed, moving from full to fair. This indicates a shift in how the stock is perceived in terms of its price relative to its value. The risk dimension fell, suggesting a decrease in the overall risk associated with the stock.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: If revenue grows, it may show a recovery in the struggling materials sector.
Confirms:Revenue growth turns positive year over year for the next quarter.
Disproves:Revenue growth remains negative year over year for the next quarter.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for ALTO yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 6, 2026, Alto Ingredients, Inc. issued a press release announcing certain results of operations for the three months ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished (not filed) as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. The information furnished in this
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Specialty Chemicals.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
ALTO Alto Ingredients Inc | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 36 of 100 | fair | elevated |
SHW Sherwin-Williams | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 66 of 100 | full | moderate |
ECL Ecolab | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 83 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
PPG PPG Industries | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 90 of 100 | fair | moderate |
LYB LyondellBasell | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 55 of 100 | — | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLB
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on enhancing utilization and reliability of operations to drive profitability.
Ensure timely and budget-compliant execution of 2026 optimization and capital projects.
Utilize flexibility in revenue streams to adapt to market shifts and maintain profitability.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On March 4, 2026, Alto Ingredients, Inc. issued a press release announcing certain results of operations for the three and twelve months ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is furnished (not filed) as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. The information furnished in this
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On November 24, 2025, Jeremy T. Bezdek resigned from his position as a member of the Board of Directors of Alto Ingredients, Inc. (the “Company”) and from all of the committees on which he served, which resignation was effective on that date. Mr. Bezdek’s resignation was not the result of any disagreement between the Company and him on any matter r…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On November 5, 2025, Alto Ingredients, Inc. issued a press release announcing certain results of operations for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2025. A copy of the press release is furnished (not filed) as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. The information furnished in this
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 6, 2025, Alto Ingredients, Inc. issued a press release announcing certain results of operations for the three and six months ended June 30, 2025. A copy of the press release is furnished (not filed) as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. The information furnished in this