Reading ALT? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ALT free→Reading ALT? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ALT free→NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak. Earnings quality cannot be assessed because the company was unprofitable over the past year. Management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent changes. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 414% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 1 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $2.62. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
We can't anchor a clean multiple for ALT right now, so treat our $0.84 fair value as low-confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 414% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 99%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Only expensive valuation — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated weak grew net income 55% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=2391).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.79x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.00 → $-0.16. 6 raised, 0 cut, 6 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 80% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$190.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$589.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $6,641.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: If the health care sector shows renewed growth, it could benefit Altimmune. This signals a better environment for the company.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth speeds up again. This shows a good trend.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth slows down. This means there are still challenges.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
Advances: Advance pemvidutide clinical trials
Phase 3 playbook confirms progress in clinical trials.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On May 13, 2026, Altimmune, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing the Company’s financial results for its first quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of this press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The information included in this Current Report on Form 8-K (including Exhibit 99.1 hereto) that is furnished pursuant to this
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Not enough peers to compare yet.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Biotechnology.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
ALT Altimmune, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 67 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
ABBV AbbVie | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 86 of 100 | fair | low |
AMGN Amgen | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 81 of 100 | full | moderate |
GILD Gilead Sciences | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 99 of 100 | fair | moderate |
VRTX Vertex Pharmaceuticals | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 80 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
12 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Health Care names rated volatile grew net income 43% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=600).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on progressing the clinical trials of pemvidutide for metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis.
Continue efforts to manage and reduce operating losses.
Why it matters: How Altimmune reacts to strong peers like Lilly and AbbVie will show its competitive position. This affects investor confidence.
Confirms one read:Altimmune announces a new partnership or product. This helps its market position.
Confirms the other:No big news or partnerships announced. This lets competitors get ahead.
Advances: Advance pemvidutide clinical trials
Momentum in pemvidutide supports clinical trial advancement.
Advances: Advance pemvidutide clinical trials
Positive trial data supports pemvidutide's clinical path.
Price target cut indicates concerns over dilution.
Increased share count raises operating loss concerns.
Advances: Advance pemvidutide clinical trials
Clear timeline for Phase III trial enhances clinical outlook.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On April 22, 2026, Altimmune, Inc. (the “ Company ”) entered into an underwriting agreement (the “ Underwriting Agreement ”) with Leerink Partners LLC and Barclays Capital Inc., as representatives of the several underwriters named therein (the “ Underwriters ”) pursuant to which the Company agreed to issue and sell (i) 64,250,000 shares of the Company’s common stock, par value $0.0001 per share (the “ Common Stock ”) and accompanying common stock wa…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On March 5, 2026, Altimmune, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing the Company’s financial results for its fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of this press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The information included in this Current Report on Form 8-K (including Exhibit 99.1 hereto) that is furnished pursuant to this
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On January 27, 2026, Altimmune, Inc. (the “Company”) entered into a Securities Purchase Agreement with a new fundamental institutional investor (the “Securities Purchase Agreement”) relating to the issuance of 12,397,920 shares of the Company’s common stock, par value of $0.0001 per share (the “Common Stock”) and pre-funded warrants (the “Pre-Funded Warrants”) to purchase up to 4,647,534 shares of Common Stock (such shares of Common Stock issuable u…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On December 1, 2025, Altimmune, Inc. (the “Company”) announced that, effective January 1, 2026 (the “Transition Date”), Vipin K. Garg, Ph.D. will transition from his role as President and Chief Executive Officer. Dr. Garg will remain with the Company as an advisor until June 30, 2026 (the "Separation Date", and the period of time between the Transi…