Altimmune, Inc. (ALT)

NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-10-23

$2.12-2.30%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 25, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Altimmune, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	1,750
EPS	—	-0.156
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	1,875
EPS	—	-0.582
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	25.73M
EPS	—	-0.636

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Manage and reduce operating losses	The company aims to manage operating losses but still faces challenges.	Broken	Operating loss worsens beyond -$24.2M in 2026-Q1	Operating income: $-26.229M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Operating loss less negative than -$24.2M in 2026-Q1. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 12, 2026-26,229,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 25, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 7d8e2252-e41f-49eb-9cfc-f1b910c30e21. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Management stated this priority in 2 quarters (2026-Q1 and 2026-Q2). R&D expenses increased from $16.2M to $18.7M, driven by ongoing clinical trials; G&A expenses were stable around $7.6M to $8.1M. Net loss remained steady near $22.7M per quarter. The company is maintaining operating expense levels consistent with clinical development needs, indicating mixed progress in managing losses. Delivery assessment Oct 25, 2026
Advance pemvidutide clinical trials	Altimmune is advancing its pemvidutide clinical trials well.	Intact	Phase 3 MASH trial start delayed beyond 2H 2026	Phase 3 MASH trial start on track for 2H 2026 Multiple reports confirm pemvidutide Phase 3 MASH trial preparation and advancement, supporting the 2H 2026 start target. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 25, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Control share dilution and manage share count	A supporting condition in Altimmune, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is No significant increase in share count beyond current levels.	Under Pressure	Share count increases significantly beyond current levels	64.25M new shares issued vs no significant increase target Company issued 64,250,000 shares in April 2026, confirming significant dilution. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 25, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$-0.64

$-0.68 → $-0.64 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$0.03B

$0.03B → $0.03B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$-0.68	$25,730,800	7 / 6
2026-07-25	$-0.68	$25,730,800	7 / 6
2026-07-26	$-0.68	$25,730,800	7 / 6
2026-07-27	$-0.68	$25,730,800	7 / 6
2026-07-28	$-0.84	$0	6 / 9
2026-07-29	$-0.84	$0	6 / 9
2026-07-30	$-0.69	$0	6 / 9
2026-07-31	$-0.69	$0	6 / 9
2026-08-01	$-0.69	$0	6 / 9
2026-08-02	$-0.69	$0	6 / 9
2026-08-03	$-0.69	$0	6 / 9
2026-08-04	$-0.69	$0	6 / 9
2026-08-05	$-0.69	$0	6 / 9
2026-08-06	$-0.69	$0	6 / 9
2026-08-07	$-0.66	$25,730,800	7 / 6
2026-08-08	$-0.69	$0	6 / 9
2026-08-09	$-0.69	$0	6 / 9
2026-08-10	$-0.69	$0	6 / 9
2026-08-11	$-0.66	$25,730,800	7 / 6
2026-08-12	$-0.69	$0	6 / 9
2026-08-13	$-0.69	$0	6 / 9
2026-08-14	$-0.66	$25,730,800	7 / 6
2026-08-15	$-0.66	$25,730,800	7 / 6
2026-08-16	$-0.66	$25,730,800	7 / 6
2026-08-17	$-0.66	$25,730,800	7 / 6
2026-08-18	$-0.66	$25,730,800	7 / 6
2026-08-19	$-0.66	$25,730,800	7 / 6
2026-08-20	$-0.64	$25,730,800	7 / 6
2026-08-21	$-0.64	$25,730,800	7 / 6
2026-08-22	$-0.64	$25,730,800	7 / 6
2026-08-23	$-0.64	$25,730,800	7 / 6
2026-08-24	$-0.64	$25,730,800	7 / 6
2026-08-25	$-0.64	$25,730,800	7 / 6
2026-08-26	$-0.64	$25,730,800	7 / 6
2026-08-27	$-0.64	$25,730,800	7 / 6
2026-08-28	$-0.64	$25,730,800	7 / 6
2026-08-29	$-0.64	$25,730,800	7 / 6
2026-08-30	$-0.64	$25,730,800	7 / 6
2026-08-31	$-0.64	$25,730,800	7 / 6
2026-09-01	$-0.64	$25,730,800	7 / 6
2026-09-02	$-0.64	$25,730,800	7 / 6
2026-09-03	$-0.64	$25,730,800	7 / 6
2026-09-04	$-0.64	$25,730,800	7 / 6
2026-09-05	$-0.64	$25,730,800	7 / 6
2026-09-06	$-0.64	$25,730,800	7 / 6
2026-09-07	$-0.64	$25,730,800	7 / 6
2026-09-08	$-0.64	$25,730,800	7 / 6
2026-09-09	$-0.64	$25,730,800	7 / 6
2026-09-10	$-0.64	$25,730,800	7 / 6
2026-09-11	$-0.64	$25,730,800	7 / 6
2026-09-12	$-0.64	$25,730,800	7 / 6
2026-09-13	$-0.64	$25,730,800	7 / 6
2026-09-14	$-0.64	$25,730,800	7 / 6
2026-09-15	$-0.64	$25,730,800	7 / 6
2026-09-16	$-0.64	$25,730,800	7 / 6
2026-09-17	$-0.64	$25,730,800	7 / 6
2026-09-18	$-0.64	$25,730,800	7 / 6
2026-09-19	$-0.64	$25,730,800	7 / 6
2026-09-20	$-0.64	$25,730,800	7 / 6
2026-09-21	$-0.64	$25,730,800	7 / 6
2026-09-22	$-0.64	$25,730,800	7 / 6
2026-09-23	$-0.64	$25,730,800	7 / 6
2026-09-24	$-0.64	$25,730,800	7 / 6
2026-09-25	$-0.64	$25,730,800	7 / 6
2026-09-26	$-0.64	$25,730,800	7 / 6
2026-09-27	$-0.64	$25,730,800	7 / 6
2026-09-28	$-0.64	$25,730,800	7 / 6
2026-09-29	$-0.64	$25,730,800	7 / 6
2026-09-30	$-0.64	$25,730,800	7 / 6
2026-10-01	$-0.64	$25,730,800	7 / 6
2026-10-02	$-0.64	$25,730,800	7 / 6
2026-10-03	$-0.64	$25,730,800	7 / 6
2026-10-04	$-0.64	$25,730,800	7 / 6
2026-10-05	$-0.64	$25,730,800	7 / 6
2026-10-06	$-0.64	$25,730,800	7 / 6
2026-10-07	$-0.64	$25,730,800	7 / 6
2026-10-08	$-0.64	$25,730,800	7 / 6
2026-10-09	$-0.64	$25,730,800	7 / 6
2026-10-10	$-0.64	$25,730,800	7 / 6
2026-10-11	$-0.64	$25,730,800	7 / 6
2026-10-12	$-0.64	$25,730,800	7 / 6
2026-10-13	$-0.64	$25,730,800	7 / 6
2026-10-14	$-0.64	$25,730,800	7 / 6
2026-10-15	$-0.64	$25,730,800	7 / 6
2026-10-16	$-0.64	$25,730,800	7 / 6
2026-10-17	$-0.64	$25,730,800	7 / 6
2026-10-18	$-0.64	$25,730,800	7 / 6
2026-10-19	$-0.64	$25,730,800	7 / 6
2026-10-20	$-0.64	$25,730,800	7 / 6
2026-10-21	$-0.64	$25,730,800	7 / 6
2026-10-22	$-0.64	$25,730,800	7 / 6
2026-10-23	$-0.64	$25,730,800	7 / 6
2026-10-24	$-0.64	$25,730,800	7 / 6
2026-10-25	$-0.64	$25,730,800	7 / 6

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	9	2
2026-06-01	9	2
2026-07-01	9	2
2026-08-01	9	1
2026-09-01	9	1
2026-10-01	9	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 9 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 26–Oct 25 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 26, 2026–Oct 25, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Manage and reduce operating lossesPublished status: Broken
Control share dilution and manage share countPublished status: Under Pressure

Next proof point

Nov 5, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.1%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-65.7%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Altimmune, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

ALT is a speculative clinical-stage biotechnology company, not a proven earnings compounder: it is loss-making and depends on trial progress. The thesis is in a watch state, with management advancing pemvidutide programs and raising capital, but recent financial performance remains weak relative to its industry cohort.

What's priced into Altimmune, Inc.

The evidence describes valuation as expensive, but does not show the full combination of expensive valuation, weak fundamentals, and turbulence as priced in. The expectations gap is marked unjustified, suggesting that market expectations may not fully reflect the business risks; the evidence does not provide a peer comparison or further detail on what investors assume.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, losses are likely to continue as research and development spending supports trials; quarterly net loss stayed near the same level, while cash and investments rose after capital raises. Over the multi-year view, progress includes starting a Phase 3 MASH trial and reporting positive Phase 2 AUD results, but a possible guidance cut and the elevated risk of a miss remain concerns; a recent earnings beat offers some counterweight.

What Altimmune, Inc. hinges on

The multi-year thesis hinges on continued clinical progress in MASH, AUD, and ALD, and on whether added cash can support that work while operating losses remain controlled. Near term, a guidance cut or further weakening in jobs data would add pressure, while strong results and guidance from healthcare bellwethers could support sector conditions.