If INTC cuts guidance on the next call, that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.

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Today's tape

Tue, Jun 16

Stocks fell on Tuesday, with the S&P 500 down 0.6%. Technology led the decline, while banks and financial companies rose. Eight of 11 groups finished higher. The drop followed a jump in energy-led inflation, while the expected Fed path changed little.

Volatile· 6 sessions2 of 5 forces leaning against the market

It has been a volatile stretch. Two of the last 6 sessions had broad drops, and daily swings averaged 1.1% versus a typical 0.6%.

Over two months, technology is the only group ahead of the market, up 22.3% versus the broad market. Energy companies lag by 21.8%, while media and telecom lag by 15.3%.Show all →

Worst today: Information Technology · 60d leader: Information Technology +22.3%

MaterialsReal EstateIndustrialsFinancialsConsumer DiscretionaryConsumer StaplesHealth CareUtilitiesCommunication ServicesEnergyInformation Technology

Interest rates

Trending Up

Rates still high

The Fed is expected to hold rates at its June 17 meeting. Confidence in that call is high. The expected short-term rate is 3.63%, near the current 3.62% rate. That rate is high enough to keep pressure on mortgages, car loans, and credit cards. Recent debate centers on the Fed message and a new chair whose views are still untested. A steady path eases some pressure on rate-sensitive stocks, but high rates still limit enthusiasm.

Headline prices rose 4.25% from a year ago in May. That is up from 3.81% in April and 3.26% in March. Core prices, which leave out food and energy, rose 2.82% from a year ago. Core prices have also moved up from 2.74% in April, but the broader pressure has not widened. Energy is the main reason headline inflation looks hotter. This keeps inflation central to the Fed call, which matters for stocks tied to borrowing costs.

The economy is still growing, but the recent path is uneven. Growth ran at a 1.6% yearly pace in 2026 Q1. That improved from 0.5% in 2025 Q4, after a much faster 4.4% in 2025 Q3. Over the last year, the economy grew 2.6% after adjusting for inflation. This gives companies some support for sales and earnings. A modest pace can help stocks if it does not push rates higher.

The latest jobs reports still look steady. Employers added 172,000 jobs in May, after 179,000 in April and 214,000 in March. The three-month average is 136,000 jobs added per month. The unemployment rate stayed at 4.3% for three straight months. Hiring has cooled from March, but layoffs are not showing a clear jump here. A steady job market can support stocks, though very strong hiring can keep rate-cut hopes in check.

Recession signs are not flashing right now. The chance of a recession over the next 12 months is 15.5%. The gap between 10-year and 2-year Treasury rates is positive at 40 hundredths of a percentage point. That means longer-term government bond rates are above shorter-term rates. This is a calmer setup than an upside-down rate gap. For stocks, it means recession risk is present but not driving the market.

Recession signals

What moved · Tue, Jun 16Show →

Broad market risk-off (SPY -0.6% on the day). Headline CPI reaccelerated to 4.2% on energy (23.0% YoY) while core held at 2.8% and is not broadening - a supply/energy print, not underlying inflation. The Fed path was little changed (next meeting hold ~85%) - so this was not a rate repricing. Company-specific exceptions to watch (moved well beyond their rate-sensitive peers): SDOT (-63.1%), SNWV (-42.0%), ELTX (-32.4%), BIAF (-31.0%).

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