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Close 2026-06-16 60 snapshots
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-06-16
Intact
$507.29-7.30%
Close 2026-06-16 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is strong. Earnings quality is neutral. Management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive changes. Risk is elevated, while the sector backdrop is a tailwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 84% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified. This is provisional.
as of 2026-06-16
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Information Technology
- Industry
- Semiconductors
- Market cap
- $834.17B
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 1972-09-27
- Next earnings
- 2026-08-04
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $507.29. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryexpensive
$275.32consensus
Range $247.30 – $280.06
vs price: +84% above
Method agreement — · 5 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearinexpensive
$1061.81consensus
Range $1048.63 – $1074.99
vs price: -52% below
Method agreement — · 2 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Re-ratinglow confidence
At $507 AMD trades at 23× p/s — 2.1× the 11× p/s peer median, and above its own 10× history. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $275 fair value is low-confidence here. Analysts: $260–$665. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/S)
23.2x
peer 11.2x · own history 10.0x
Premium
2.1x peer
2.3x its own history
Growth the price needs
84%
our forecast 24%
Our fair value
$275.32
range $246.10 – $280.06
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is in the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
expensiveexpensive — growth-justified12-month view
What's priced inUnjustified
The market is pricing in roughly 84% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 24%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only expensive valuation — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
strongOperating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Information Technology names rated strong grew net income 73% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=2777).
95th pctl · Information Technology
Earnings quality
neutralOver the trailing year it converted 1.94x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Information Technology names rated neutral grew net income 62% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=2831).
62nd pctl · Information Technology
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
volatileEarnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Strongly bullish5 PT revisions / 30d, avg 20.5% above currentfor period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $1.60 → $1.61 (+0.0% / 30d). 35 raised, 2 cut, 40 covering analysts.
Rating actions
1 upgrade, 0 downgrades / 30d, 6 maintained. 81% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
5 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 20.5% above current price.
Market and fundamentals agree. Analysts are positioned bullishly on a fundamentally strong name.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklyManagement scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: neutral
- Capital allocation
- neutral
- Earnings discipline
- strong
- Margin discipline
- strong
- Balance sheet
- neutral
- Post-call reaction
- weak
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$307.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$542.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,776.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
elevatedas of 2026-06-16
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideHigh confidenceMonthsactive 4d
Watch for completion of the ZT Systems divestiture to Sanmina
Why it matters: This sale is important for AMD's AI plans. It may help AMD deliver AI solutions faster.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:The sale goes through and AMD shares new AI product timelines with Sanmina.
Disproves:Regulatory issues slow down the sale. AMD may not share new product timelines.
Material event
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
- 2026-06-125d agoSeeking Alpha
Advances: Accelerate AI infrastructure growth
Market underpricing AI CPU super cycle supports growth thesis.
Strongly reinforcesUnconfirmed report
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth in IT sector dropping below median
- Watch for FOMC decisions impacting tech investment
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for AMD and other Tech names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
- If sector bellwethers like NVDA, TSM, and AVGO keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Tech sector momentum should keep lifting AMD and other Tech names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If AMD raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-05), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If AMD cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-05), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like NVDA, TSM, and AVGO start missing or guiding lower, the Tech tailwind helping AMD and other Tech names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-151mo agoItem 1.01
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On May 14, 2026 (the “Closing Date”), Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (the “Company”) entered into a Credit Agreement with the lenders named therein, JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., as administrative agent, and the other parties from time to time party thereto (the “Credit Agreement”). The Credit Agreement provides for a five-year, $5.0 billion unsecured revolving credit facility (the “Revolving Facility”) and replaces the Company’s existing Credit Agreemen…
Capital allocationneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+3.2 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-16
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.