Reading INTC? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track INTC free→Back to Brief
Close 2026-06-16 60 snapshots
Intel Corporation (INTC)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-06-16
Watch· 1–3 mo
$117.05-8.45%
Close 2026-06-16 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is neutral. Earnings quality is not assessable since the company was unprofitable over the past year. Management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent changes. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a tailwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 80% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified. If INTC cuts guidance on the next call, that could be a meaningful negative.
as of 2026-06-16
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Information Technology
- Industry
- Semiconductors
- Market cap
- $642.62B
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 1971-10-13
- Next earnings
- 2026-07-23
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $117.05. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryexpensive
$64.89consensus
Range $38.95 – $127.62
vs price: +80% above
Method agreement — · 6 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearinexpensive
$232.67consensus
Range $194.84 – $349.68
vs price: -50% below
Method agreement — · 4 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Cheap vs peerslow confidence
At $117 INTC trades at 11× p/s, below its 11× p/s peer median. Our $65 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Analysts: $60–$150. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/S)
11.0x
peer 11.2x · own history 2.8x
Premium
1.0x peer
4.0x its own history
Growth the price needs
80%
our forecast 1%
Our fair value
$64.89
range $38.95 – $111.81
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is in the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
expensiveexpensive — growth-justified12-month view
What's priced inUnjustified
The market is pricing in roughly 80% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 1%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only expensive valuation — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
neutralOperating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Information Technology names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 68% for the rest of the cohort, n=3704).
38th pctl · Information Technology
Earnings quality
loss makingOver the trailing year it converted -3.14x of net income into operating cash flow.
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
Management & capital allocation
volatile26 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Information Technology names rated volatile grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=793).
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Strongly bullish33 analysts, 26% Buyfor period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $0.21 → $0.21 (+0.1% / 30d). 31 raised, 0 cut, 33 covering analysts.
Rating actions
1 upgrade, 0 downgrades / 30d, 5 maintained. 26% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
4 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 8.7% above current price.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: information technology is in maturing, with decelerating (~0.2 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): tailwind.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: neutral
- Capital allocation
- weak
- Earnings discipline
- weak
- Margin discipline
- neutral
- Balance sheet
- neutral
- Guidance credibility
- weak
- Post-call reaction
- neutral
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$303.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$576.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,417.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
elevatedas of 2026-06-16
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- DownsideHigh confidenceMonthsactive 11d
Watch for stable leadership
Why it matters: Recent departures can affect how the company runs. Stability is important for growth.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:No new executives left the company by Q3 2026.
Disproves:Another big executive will leave by Q3 2026.
Material event
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
- 2026-06-179h agoEconomic Times
Advances: Ramp Intel 18A production
New tech supports ramping Intel 18A production.
Strongly reinforcesConfirmed
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth in IT sector dropping below median
- Watch for FOMC decisions impacting tech investment
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for INTC and other Tech names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
- If sector bellwethers like NVDA, TSM, and AVGO keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Tech sector momentum should keep lifting INTC and other Tech names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If INTC raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-04-23), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If INTC cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-04-23), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like NVDA, TSM, and AVGO start missing or guiding lower, the Tech tailwind helping INTC and other Tech names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-241mo agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On April 24,2026, Scott Gawel, Corporate Vice President and Chief Accounting Officer of Intel Corporation (the "Company"), resigned from the position of principal accounting officer, effective immediately, to pursue another career opportunity. At such time, Mr. David A. Zinsner, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of the Company, a…
Executive changeneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
About the same as last weeklatest as of 2026-06-17
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.