Reading ZVRA? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ZVRA free→Reading ZVRA? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ZVRA free→
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
ZVRA shows strong recent financial performance. However, earnings quality is fragile. Management's track record is steady, and it has a capital-friendly stance. Risk is high, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 6% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $12.65. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $13 ZVRA trades at 17× p/e, in line with its 17× p/e peer median. Our $12 fair value reflects that, low confidence. Analysts: $23–$35. Not investment advice.
(median $29.00) · 5 analysts · as of 2026-06-10
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 3% near-term growth, below our forecast of about 100%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 3 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated strong grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=2344).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.10x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Health Care names rated fragile grew net income 40% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=1703).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.17 → $0.16 (-3.0% / 30d). 0 raised, 2 cut, 4 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 7 maintained. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
3 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 136.1% above current price.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$200.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$530.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,347.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: If healthcare sector revenue growth speeds up, it could benefit Zevra. It may indicate a shift in market conditions.
Confirms:Healthcare sector revenue growth exceeds 10% year over year.
Disproves:Healthcare sector revenue growth remains below 5% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for ZVRA yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 6, 2026, Zevra Therapeutics, Inc., a Delaware corporation ("Zevra" or "the Company"), issued a press release announcing its financial results and corporate updates for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026, as well as information regarding a conference call and audio webcast to discuss its financial results and corporate updates scheduled for Wednesday, May 6, 2026, at 4:30 p.m. ET. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2021-Q3, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Biotechnology.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
ZVRA Zevra Therapeutics, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 79 of 100 | full | high |
ABBV AbbVie | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 85 of 100 | fair | low |
AMGN Amgen | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 78 of 100 | full | moderate |
GILD Gilead Sciences | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 100 of 100 | fair | moderate |
VRTX Vertex Pharmaceuticals | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 80 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
8 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Health Care names rated neutral grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 50% for the rest of the cohort, n=842).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Zevra aims to execute its strategic priorities without relying on capital markets.
Zevra is focused on driving growth in MIPLYFFA® net revenue.
Zevra has repaid in full all outstanding obligations under a Credit Agreement.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On March 13, 2026, Zevra Therapeutics, Inc.(the “Company”) entered into an Asset Purchase and Settlement Agreement (the “Agreement”) with Commave Therapeutics SA (“Commave”) to sell certain assets of the Company to Commave and to resolve litigation pending in the Court of Chancery of the State of Delaware captioned Commave Therapeutics SA v. Zevra Therapeutics, Inc., C.A. No. 2024-0920-LWW (the “Litigation”) related to claims arising under the Colla…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On March 4, 2026, the Company appointed Justin Renz as Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer, effective March 9, 2026, and as principal financial officer, effective March 10, 2026. On March 5, 2026, the Company issued a press release announcing the appointment of Mr. Renz as Chief Financial Officer, a copy of which is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On March 9, 2026, Zevra Therapeutics, Inc., a Delaware corporation ("Zevra" or "the Company"), issued a press release announcing its financial results and corporate updates for the fourth quarter ended December 31, 2025, as well as information regarding a conference call and audio webcast to discuss its financial results and corporate updates scheduled for Monday, March 9, 2026, at 4:30 p.m. ET. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit…
Termination of a Material Definitive Agreement. On March 12, 2026, the Company repaid in full all outstanding obligations under that certain Credit Agreement, dated as of April 5, 2024, by and among the Company, HCR Stafford Fund II, L.P., HCR Potomac Fund II, L.P., and Perceptive Credit Holdings IV, LP (collectively, the “Lenders”), and Alter Domus (US) LLC, as administrative agent (the “Credit Agreement”). The Credit Agreement provided for a senior secured loan facility in an aggregate prin…