Zevra Therapeutics, Inc. (ZVRA)

NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-10-23

$9.81-5.03%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Zevra Therapeutics, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	39.57M
EPS	—	0.182
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	152.22M
EPS	—	1.109
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	176.98M
EPS	—	0.936

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Maintain no outstanding credit obligations	It repaid all credit obligations in 2026.	Recovered	new credit obligations arise	0.0% outstanding credit obligations vs 0.0% target March 2026 filing confirms full repayment of the senior secured loan facility, eliminating all credit obligations. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
EPS near or above consensus $1.22 in 2026	A primary condition in Zevra Therapeutics, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=1.22 USD per share.	Broken	EPS falls below $1.0 in 2026	Diluted EPS: $0.14 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=1.22 USD per share. Target period ends 2026-12-31; this observation covers 2026-Q2. Source published Aug 5, 20260.14 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 377a694b-6c63-4f80-8f18-9915e1a89807. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
MIPLYFFA net revenue growth to at least $106.5 million	Zevra grows MIPLYFFA net revenue to $106.5 million in 2025.	Broken	net revenue falls below $100 million in 2025	Revenue: $39.663M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=106.5 USD million net revenue. The stored target says 2025-Q4; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 5, 202639,663,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 377a694b-6c63-4f80-8f18-9915e1a89807. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. MIPLYFFA net revenue grew from $24.6 million in 2026-Q1 to $30.2 million in 2026-Q2, contributing to FY 2025 net revenue of $87.4 million. Management consistently emphasizes MIPLYFFA growth, and the revenue trajectory is delivering on this priority. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPSUnavailable

$0.93 → Unavailable · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$0.18B

$0.18B → $0.18B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$0.93	$182,246,389	5 / 7
2026-07-25	Unavailable	$175,991,780	4 / 9
2026-07-26	Unavailable	$175,991,780	4 / 9
2026-07-27	Unavailable	$175,991,780	4 / 9
2026-07-28	$0.87	$175,991,667	5 / 7
2026-07-29	Unavailable	$173,078,560	4 / 9
2026-07-30	$0.84	$173,078,333	5 / 7
2026-07-31	Unavailable	$173,078,560	4 / 9
2026-08-01	$0.84	$173,078,333	5 / 7
2026-08-02	Unavailable	$173,078,560	4 / 9
2026-08-03	Unavailable	$173,078,560	4 / 9
2026-08-04	Unavailable	$173,078,560	4 / 9
2026-08-05	Unavailable	$173,078,560	4 / 9
2026-08-06	$0.84	$173,078,333	5 / 7
2026-08-08	$0.95	$177,016,278	5 / 7
2026-08-09	$0.95	$177,016,278	5 / 7
2026-08-10	$0.95	$177,016,278	5 / 7
2026-08-12	$0.95	$177,016,278	5 / 7
2026-08-13	Unavailable	$176,978,330	4 / 9
2026-08-14	$0.95	$177,016,278	5 / 7
2026-08-15	$0.95	$177,016,278	5 / 7
2026-08-16	$0.95	$177,016,278	5 / 7
2026-08-17	$0.95	$177,016,278	5 / 7
2026-08-18	$0.95	$177,016,278	5 / 7
2026-08-19	$0.95	$177,016,278	5 / 7
2026-08-20	$0.94	$176,977,444	5 / 7
2026-08-21	$0.94	$176,977,444	5 / 7
2026-08-22	$0.94	$176,977,444	5 / 7
2026-08-23	$0.94	$176,977,444	5 / 7
2026-08-24	$0.94	$176,977,444	5 / 7
2026-08-25	$0.94	$176,977,444	5 / 7
2026-08-26	$0.94	$176,977,444	5 / 7
2026-08-27	$0.94	$176,977,444	5 / 7
2026-08-28	$0.94	$176,977,444	5 / 7
2026-08-29	$0.94	$176,977,444	5 / 7
2026-08-30	$0.94	$176,977,444	5 / 7
2026-08-31	$0.94	$176,977,444	5 / 7
2026-09-01	$0.94	$176,977,444	5 / 7
2026-09-02	$0.94	$176,977,444	5 / 7
2026-09-03	$0.94	$176,977,444	5 / 7
2026-09-04	$0.94	$176,977,444	5 / 7
2026-09-05	$0.94	$176,977,444	5 / 7
2026-09-06	$0.94	$176,977,444	5 / 6
2026-09-07	$0.94	$176,977,444	5 / 6
2026-09-08	$0.94	$176,977,444	5 / 6
2026-09-09	$0.94	$176,977,444	5 / 6
2026-09-10	$0.94	$176,977,444	5 / 6
2026-09-11	$0.94	$176,977,444	5 / 6
2026-09-12	$0.94	$176,977,444	5 / 6
2026-09-13	$0.94	$176,977,444	5 / 6
2026-09-14	$0.94	$176,977,444	5 / 6
2026-09-15	$0.94	$176,977,444	5 / 6
2026-09-16	$0.94	$176,977,444	5 / 6
2026-09-17	$0.94	$176,977,444	5 / 6
2026-09-18	$0.94	$176,977,444	5 / 6
2026-09-19	$0.94	$176,977,444	5 / 6
2026-09-20	$0.94	$176,977,444	5 / 6
2026-09-21	$0.94	$176,977,444	5 / 6
2026-09-22	$0.94	$176,977,444	5 / 6
2026-09-23	Unavailable	$176,977,444	4 / 5
2026-09-24	Unavailable	$176,977,444	4 / 5
2026-09-25	$0.94	$176,977,444	5 / 6
2026-09-26	Unavailable	$176,977,444	4 / 6
2026-09-27	$0.94	$176,977,444	5 / 6
2026-09-28	$0.94	$176,977,444	5 / 6
2026-09-29	$0.94	$176,977,444	5 / 6
2026-09-30	$0.94	$176,977,444	5 / 6
2026-10-01	$0.94	$176,977,444	5 / 6
2026-10-02	Unavailable	$176,977,444	4 / 5
2026-10-03	Unavailable	$176,977,444	4 / 5
2026-10-04	Unavailable	$176,977,444	4 / 5
2026-10-05	Unavailable	$176,977,444	4 / 5
2026-10-06	Unavailable	$176,977,444	4 / 5
2026-10-07	Unavailable	$176,977,444	4 / 5
2026-10-08	Unavailable	$176,977,444	4 / 5
2026-10-09	Unavailable	$176,977,444	4 / 5
2026-10-10	Unavailable	$176,977,444	4 / 5
2026-10-11	Unavailable	$176,977,444	4 / 5
2026-10-12	Unavailable	$176,977,444	4 / 5
2026-10-13	Unavailable	$176,977,444	4 / 5
2026-10-14	Unavailable	$176,978,378	4 / 5
2026-10-15	Unavailable	$176,978,378	4 / 5
2026-10-16	Unavailable	$176,978,378	4 / 5
2026-10-17	Unavailable	$176,978,378	4 / 5
2026-10-18	Unavailable	$176,978,378	4 / 5
2026-10-19	Unavailable	$176,978,378	4 / 5
2026-10-20	Unavailable	$176,978,378	4 / 5
2026-10-21	Unavailable	$176,978,378	4 / 5
2026-10-22	Unavailable	$176,978,378	4 / 5
2026-10-23	Unavailable	$176,978,378	4 / 5
2026-10-24	Unavailable	$176,978,378	4 / 5

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	9	0	0
2026-06-01	9	0	0
2026-07-01	9	0	0
2026-08-01	9	0	0
2026-09-01	9	0	0
2026-10-01	9	0	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 9 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

EPS near or above consensus $1.22 in 2026Published status: Broken
MIPLYFFA net revenue growth to at least $106.5 millionPublished status: Broken

Next proof point

Nov 3, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.0%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-35.5%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Zevra Therapeutics, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a speculative growth story in healthcare, not a proven earnings compounder, because the company is still loss-making. The long-term thesis is intact, supported by recent financial performance and progress on stated priorities, but confidence is medium and risk is elevated.

What's priced into Zevra Therapeutics, Inc.

The valuation is described as cheap versus peers, with a negative expectations gap, so expectations appear restrained. The priced-in assessment is marked justified, and no fragility signals were found; however, valuation rose recently, so the relative discount has narrowed.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, MIPLYFFA revenue has grown from $24.6 million in the first quarter of 2026 to $30.2 million in the second, while cash and investments rose to $260.2 million. Enrollment in the Phase 3 DiSCOVER trial also advanced, but the company remains loss-making and industry miss risk is elevated; the estimated near-term miss probability is 31%.

What Zevra Therapeutics, Inc. hinges on

The multi-year thesis depends on continued MIPLYFFA growth, available resources to carry out plans, and progress in the DiSCOVER trial. Near term, a guidance cut would be a meaningful setback, while weaker jobs data could increase pressure on healthcare names; stronger results and guidance from sector peers could support sector momentum.