Reading ZLAB? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ZLAB free→Reading ZLAB? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ZLAB free→NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and the company was unprofitable over the past year, so its earnings quality can't be assessed. Management's recent track record has been steady, but risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 303% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich. If ZLAB cuts guidance on the next call, that could have a meaningful negative impact. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 2 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $17.73. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $18, ZLAB's earnings are too small for P/E to mean much; on sales it trades at 43× p/s (4.5× the 10× p/s peer median). At a normal multiple the price implies ~303% near-term growth vs our ~7% forecast. That gap is an optionality premium a financial-multiple model can't price — our $5.13 fair value covers only the as-is business, low confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 303% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 7%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Only expensive valuation — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated weak grew net income 55% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=2391).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.57x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $-0.49 → $-0.67 (-37.0% / 30d). 0 raised, 4 cut, 6 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 92% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$237.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$609.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $5,988.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
No named catalysts to watch right now. Check back after the next earnings report.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
Leadership changes may disrupt strategic execution and revenue growth.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 7, 2026, Zai Lab Limited issued a press release announcing its financial results for the first quarter of 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this report and is incorporated herein by reference. The information contained in this report, including Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto, is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “E…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
ZLAB ZAI LAB LTD | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 65 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
3 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Health Care names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=618).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on achieving revenue growth as a key financial target.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Total revenues grew 17% y-o-y to $127.6 million for the fourth quarter of 2025. Despite the growth, the revenue guidance for 2025 was revised to at least $460 million, indicating limited progress towards higher targets.
“Total revenues grew 17% y-o-y to $127.6 million for the fourth quarter of 2025.”
“Revising total revenue guidance for the full year 2025 to at least $460 million.”
“Reaffirming full-year 2025 revenue guidance of $560 million to $590 million.”
Aim to improve operating income as part of financial performance enhancement.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Operating income was -$69.4 million in 2026-Q1, slightly improved from -$69.4 million in 2025-Q4 but worse than -$48.8 million in 2025-Q3. The trajectory shows limited progress in improving operating income.
Senior leadership changes could impact operational focus and income.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On May 18, 2026, the Board of Directors of Zai Lab Limited (the “Company”) determined that Mr. Josh Smiley will cease serving as President and Chief Operating Officer of the Company, effective as of May 18, 2026, and his last day of employment with the Company will be May 22, 2026. The responsibilities previously associated with such positions have…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 26, 2026, Zai Lab Limited issued a press release announcing its financial results for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this report and is incorporated herein by reference. The information contained in this report, including Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto, is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exc…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On November 6, 2025, Zai Lab Limited issued a press release announcing its financial results for the third quarter of 2025. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this report and is incorporated herein by reference. The information contained in this report, including Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto, is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (t…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Zai Lab Limited (the “Company”) identified an additional opportunity to access capital denominated in RMB through a debt facility with Industrial Bank Co., Ltd. on favorable commercial terms to support our working capital needs in mainland China. As a result, on October 13, 2025, the Company entered into a maximum amount guarantee contract (the “Guarantee”) with Industrial Bank Co., Ltd., Shanghai Gubei Branch (“CIB”) pursuant to which the Company w…
“Operating income was -$69.4 million.”
“Operating income was -$69.4 million.”
“Operating income was -$48.8 million.”