Reading XNCR? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track XNCR free→Reading XNCR? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track XNCR free→NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and the company was unprofitable over the past year, so its earnings quality can't be assessed. Management's recent track record has been steady, but risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 30% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk, as it trades below peer multiples while recent financials are weak. Key factors to watch include guidance changes and sector trends, particularly the performance of major healthcare companies. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 2 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $12.21. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $12 XNCR trades at 6× p/s, below its 9× p/s peer median. Our $21 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 41% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 1%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 0 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated weak grew net income 55% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=2391).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.08x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $-0.76 → $-0.83 (-9.3% / 30d). 4 raised, 6 cut, 11 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 86% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$230.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$590.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,261.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: An update will show how the drug is doing for rheumatoid arthritis. Good news could help investors.
Confirms:There was good progress in the Phase 1b study of plamotamab.
Disproves:No update or negative findings from the Phase 1b study of plamotamab.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for XNCR yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition” of this Current Report on Form 8-K and in Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto is being furnished and shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall such information be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as expressly s…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Biotechnology.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
XNCR Xencor Inc | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 37 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
ABBV AbbVie | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 85 of 100 | fair | low |
AMGN Amgen | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 78 of 100 | full | moderate |
GILD Gilead Sciences | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 100 of 100 | fair | moderate |
VRTX Vertex Pharmaceuticals | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 80 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
2 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by M&A activity. Historically, Health Care names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=618).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Management aims to reduce net losses through cost management and operational efficiency.
Management is committed to enhancing cash flow from operations to support financial stability.
Management is focused on increasing revenue through strategic initiatives.
Why it matters: Higher revenue growth shows success in making more money. This is very important.
Confirms:Q2 revenue grows year over year by more than 5%.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth is less than 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Worsening cash flow indicates deeper financial issues. It shows the company is struggling to manage its costs.
Confirms:Cash flow from operations worsens beyond -$67.6M in Q2.
Disproves:Cash flow from operations improves to less negative than -$67.6M in Q2.
Why it matters: Improving cash flow is crucial for the company's financial health and future growth.
Confirms:Cash flow from operations turns positive in Q2.
Disproves:Cash flow from operations remains negative in Q2.
Why it matters: A clear plan from management could indicate a turnaround strategy. Investors want to see action on reducing losses.
Confirms:Management has a clear plan. They want to lower net losses in the next earnings call.
Disproves:No clear plan is presented to address net losses in the next earnings call.
Why it matters: The results will support the start of a pivotal study for XmAb819 in 2027. Positive data could boost investor confidence.
Confirms:The Phase 1 study showed good results at a medical conference.
Disproves:There were bad results or no data from the expansion cohort.
Why it matters: A decrease in net losses shows progress in managing costs, which is a key priority.
Confirms:Q2 net losses decrease year over year by more than 10%.
Disproves:Q2 net losses increase year over year or stay the same.
Why it matters: Starting this study is a key step in advancing Xencor's TL1A pipeline. It could signal strong progress in autoimmune treatments.
Confirms:The first-in-human study for XmAb412 will start in 3Q26.
Disproves:Delay in starting the first-in-human study for XmAb412.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On April 23, 2026, Xencor, Inc. (the “ Company ”) adopted the Xencor, Inc. Executive Severance Policy (the “ Severance Policy ”), pursuant to which certain executives of the Company, including the Company’s currently serving named executive officers with the exception of the Company’s Chief Executive Officer (our “ NEOs ”), are eligible to receive…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition” of this Current Report on Form 8-K and in Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto is being furnished and shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall such information be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as expressly s…
Termination of a Material Definitive Agreement On March 4, 2026, Xencor, Inc. (the “Company”) received a notice of termination of an Amended and Restated Collaboration and License Agreement (the “Agreement”), effective as of June 1, 2024, with Genentech, Inc. (“GNE”) and F. Hoffmann-La Roche Ltd (“Roche” and, GNE and Roche, collectively, “Genentech”), pursuant to which Genentech has elected to terminate the Agreement in its entirety for convenience. The effective date of the termination of th…