Reading VNT? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track VNT free→Reading VNT? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track VNT free→NYSEInformation TechnologyScientific & Technical InstrumentsSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality is fragile, reported profits aren't backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been steady, and risk is elevated. The sector backdrop is a tailwind, and compared with sector peers, VNT is above typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 64% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk, as it trades below peer multiples while earnings quality is fragile. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $29.78. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $30 VNT trades at 10× p/e, below its 28× p/e peer median. Our $83 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Analysts: $36–$47. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 65% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 2%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Information Technology names rated strong grew net income 73% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=2777).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.08x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Information Technology names rated fragile grew net income 46% of the time over the next year (vs 65% for the rest of the cohort, n=2129).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity, the US dollar.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.82 → $0.80 (-2.7% / 30d). 0 raised, 7 cut, 9 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 58% of analysts rate Buy.
Divergence: fundamentals are strong but estimates are being cut. Worth reading the recent material events.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$107.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$259.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,628.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Dividends show the company is strong. They also show care for shareholders.
Confirms one read:Dividend payment news on or after July 30.
Confirms the other:No dividend payment announced on or after July 30.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for VNT yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
of this Current Report on Form 8-K and the press release attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 shall not be deemed "filed" for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Act of 1934, as amended (the "Exchange Act"), or incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$36.00 – $47.00 (median $38.50) · 4 analysts · as of 2026-05-11
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Electronic Equipment & Instruments.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
VNT Vontier | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 76 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
KEYS Keysight Technologies | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 88 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
ROP Roper Technologies | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 96 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
TDY Teledyne Technologies | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 77 of 100 | full | moderate |
TRMB Trimble Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 94 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
3 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Information Technology names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 62% for the rest of the cohort, n=797).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLK
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Met or beat guidance 0% of the last 1 guided quarters · -17.0% avg surprise
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on increasing revenue growth through strategic initiatives.
Continue efforts to enhance operating income through cost management and efficiency.
Commitment to maintaining regular dividend payments to shareholders.
Why it matters: Keeping dividends shows care for shareholders. A steady payment shows good financial health.
Confirms:Dividend payment remains at $0.025 per share in the next quarter.
Disproves:Dividend payment is cut or reduced from $0.025 per share.
Why it matters: This would signal that Vontier is struggling to increase sales, which is a key priority.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth reported below 5% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth reported above 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Operating income is important for making money. Growth below 3% shows cost issues.
Confirms:Operating income growth is below 3% compared to last year.
Disproves:Operating income growth is above 3% compared to last year.
Why it matters: The sale affects Vontier's finances. Completing the sale may help focus on core work.
Confirms:The Teletrac Navman sale was completed for $220 million.
Disproves:There are delays or problems in completing the Teletrac Navman sale.
Why it matters: Total sales guidance of $730 to $740 million indicates growth trends. Sales below this range may signal weakening demand.
Confirms:Q2 2026 total sales were over $740 million.
Disproves:Q2 2026 total sales were under $730 million.
Why it matters: The sector's growth trajectory affects Vontier's performance. A drop below median signals broader issues.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth reported below its median.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth remains above its median.
Why it matters: Strong demand in Convenience Retail is crucial for Vontier's growth. Declining core sales could indicate market challenges.
Confirms one read:Core sales growth in Convenience Retail was over 3% compared to last year.
Confirms the other:Core sales growth in Convenience Retail was under 1% compared to last year.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On March 31, 2026, Vontier Corporation, a Delaware corporation (“Vontier”), and certain of its subsidiaries entered into a 364-day Term Loan Agreement with PNC Bank, National Association, as administrative agent, and the lenders party thereto (the “Term Loan Agreement”). The Term Loan Agreement provides for a 364-day, $300 million senior unsecured term loan facility (the “Term Loan Facility”). The Term Loan Facility matures on March 30, 2027. Loans…
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The information set forth under
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers On February 24, 2026, Christopher J. Klein notified the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of Vontier Corporation (the “Company”) that he has elected to retire from the Board after helping the Company in its spin-off, and he will not stand for re-election as a director at the Company’s 2026 Annual Meeting of Shareholders (the “Annual Meeting”). Mr. Kl…
of this Current Report on Form 8-K and the press release attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 shall not be deemed "filed" for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Act of 1934, as amended (the "Exchange Act"), or incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing.