Reading OSIS? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track OSIS free→Reading OSIS? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track OSIS free→NASDAQInformation TechnologyElectronic ComponentsSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is fragile, reported profits aren't backed by cash. Risk is elevated, but the sector backdrop is a tailwind, which may support OSIS. Peer multiples imply a price about 19% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. Key factors to watch include any guidance cuts from OSIS and the performance of sector bellwethers like APH, GLW, and TEL. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $220.70. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $221 OSIS trades at 23× p/e, below its 28× p/e peer median. Our $272 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price sits about 19% below a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Information Technology names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 68% for the rest of the cohort, n=3704).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.62x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Information Technology names rated fragile grew net income 46% of the time over the next year (vs 65% for the rest of the cohort, n=2129).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $3.76 → $3.76 (+0.1% / 30d). 1 raised, 5 cut, 7 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 86% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$159.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$398.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,615.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: A drop below 2% would signal weakening demand and could impact future guidance.
Confirms:Q3 revenue growth was less than 2% compared to last year.
Disproves:Q3 revenue growth remains at or above 2% year-over-year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
Advances: Increase revenue growth
New order supports revenue growth objective.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 4, 2026, we issued a press release announcing our financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated herein by this reference. We are furnishing the information contained in this Item 2.02 (including Exhibit 99.1). It shall not be deemed to be “filed” for any purpose, including for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amend…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Electronic Equipment & Instruments.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
OSIS OSI Systems, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 64 of 100 | fair | elevated |
KEYS Keysight Technologies | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 90 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
ROP Roper Technologies | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 93 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
TDY Teledyne Technologies | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 76 of 100 | full | moderate |
TRMB Trimble Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 94 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLK
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on increasing revenue growth through strategic initiatives.
Aim to enhance operating income through cost management and efficiency.
Focus on improving cash flow from operations to support growth initiatives.
Why it matters: A backlog over $2 billion shows strong future revenue and demand.
Confirms:Backlog reported at over $2 billion.
Disproves:Backlog remains below $1.9 billion.
Why it matters: An increase in EPS guidance would reflect strong earnings growth and investor confidence.
Confirms:Management increases non-GAAP EPS guidance to more than $10.55.
Disproves:Guidance remains at or below $10.30.
Why it matters: If OSI Systems can stabilize or improve its operating income, it shows better cost management. This is important for making more money in the long run.
Confirms:Operating income increases from $53.21M in 2026-Q3.
Disproves:Operating income continues to decline from $53.21M in 2026-Q3.
Why it matters: If sector revenue growth drops below median, it may signal a broader slowdown. This could affect OSI Systems' performance.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth drops below its median.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth remains above its median.
Why it matters: Better operating income shows good cost management. It can help make more money.
Confirms:Operating income is higher than last quarter.
Disproves:Operating income is lower or the same as last quarter.
Why it matters: Improved cash flow from operations is key for funding growth and reducing debt.
Confirms:Cash from operations increases by 20% or more compared to the previous quarter.
Disproves:Cash from operations declines or remains flat.
Advances: Increase revenue growth
New order supports revenue growth objective.
Advances: Increase revenue growth
Expanding order book indicates strong revenue potential.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On January 29, 2026, we issued a press release announcing our financial results for the quarter ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated herein by this reference. We are furnishing the information contained in this Item 2.02 (including Exhibit 99.1). It shall not be deemed to be “filed” for any purpose, including for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934,…