Reading DBD? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track DBD free→Reading DBD? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track DBD free→NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, while earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been steady, and risk is moderate. The sector backdrop is a tailwind, and compared with sector peers, DBD is typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 48% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, quality intact. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $82.66. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $83 DBD trades at 15× p/e, below its 28× p/e peer median. Our $159 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 48% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 3%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Information Technology names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 68% for the rest of the cohort, n=3704).
Over the trailing year it converted 2.94x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Information Technology names rated robust grew net income 69% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=2129).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.14 → $1.10 (-3.5% / 30d). 1 raised, 1 cut, 3 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$132.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$328.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,253.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Lower revenue growth raises concerns about the company's future growth.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth reported below 6% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth reported at or above 6% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for DBD yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
shall not be deemed "filed" for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the "Exchange Act"), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section and shall not be incorporated by reference into any registration statement or other document pursuant to the Securities Act of 1933, as amended.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Electronic Equipment & Instruments.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
DBD Diebold Nixdorf | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 67 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
KEYS Keysight Technologies | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 87 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
ROP Roper Technologies | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 96 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
TDY Teledyne Technologies | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 76 of 100 | full | moderate |
TRMB Trimble Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 94 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
2 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Information Technology names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 62% for the rest of the cohort, n=797).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLK
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on enhancing profitability and increasing net income.
Aim to achieve higher revenue growth through strategic initiatives.
Continue efforts to improve operating income through cost management.
Why it matters: Higher operating income shows better efficiency. It also means better cost management. This helps with making more money.
Confirms:Operating income exceeds $35M in Q2.
Disproves:Operating income falls below $30M in Q2.
Why it matters: If sector revenue growth falls, it may impact Diebold Nixdorf's performance. This is a broader market signal.
Confirms one read:Sector revenue growth drops below its median.
Confirms the other:Sector revenue growth stays above its median.
Why it matters: Reaffirming guidance shows trust in making cash and staying financially healthy.
Confirms:Management confirms free cash flow guidance of $255M - $270M for 2026.
Disproves:Management revises down free cash flow guidance for 2026.
Why it matters: An increase in net income would show that the company is moving towards profitability. This is crucial for long-term growth.
Confirms:Net income exceeds $7M in Q2.
Disproves:Net income remains below $5M in Q2.
Why it matters: Free cash flow is crucial for funding operations and growth. A drop raises concerns.
Confirms:Free cash flow reported below $20 million in Q2.
Disproves:Free cash flow exceeds $20 million in Q2.
Why it matters: A better margin shows the company is controlling costs and working well.
Confirms:Adjusted EBITDA margin is higher than last quarter.
Disproves:Adjusted EBITDA margin goes down or stays the same compared to last quarter.
Why it matters: Updates on share buybacks can show management's trust in the company's worth.
Confirms:Announcement of more share buybacks beyond the current $117 million left.
Disproves:No updates or a pause in the share repurchase program.
Why it matters: A drop in EBITDA margin may mean costs are rising or profits are falling.
Confirms:EBITDA margin is below 13%.
Disproves:Adjusted EBITDA margin stays at or above 13%.
Departure of Director or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On February 24, 2026, the Board of Directors of Diebold Nixdorf, Incorporated (the “ Company ”) designated the Company’s Senior Vice President and Chief Accounting Officer, Jeffrey Sesplankis, as the Company’s principal accounting officer, effective February 24, 2026. Mr. Sesplankis assumes the designation of principal accounting officer from Thomas…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On February 12, 2026 , Diebold Nixdorf, Incorporated (the “Company”) issued a news release announcing its results for the fourth quarter and fiscal year ended December 31, 2025 (the "News Release"). The News Release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. The information in this
Departure of Director or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On October 8, 2025, Diebold Nixdorf, Inc. (the “ Company ”) announced that Joe Myers, Executive Vice President, Global Banking, will assume the role of Executive Vice President, Chief Revenue Officer effective January 1, 2026 (the “ Effective Date ”). In this role, Mr. Myers will lead the Company’s Global Retail and Global Banking functions. As a pa…