Reading NOVT? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track NOVT free→Reading NOVT? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track NOVT free→NASDAQInformation TechnologyScientific & Technical InstrumentsSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. Earnings quality is neutral, and the sector backdrop is a tailwind, which may support growth. Peer multiples imply a price about 63% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich, as it trades above peer multiples, and the longer horizon does not make that back through growth. If NOVT cuts guidance on the next call, that's a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $155.13. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $157 the market pays 47× p/e — above the 28× p/e peer median but in line with its own 49× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $99 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with medium confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 58% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 4%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Flags: expensive valuation, weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating).
For similar setups historically (n=889): about 49% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 85% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 3 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Information Technology names rated strong grew net income 73% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=2777).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.56x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Information Technology names rated neutral grew net income 62% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=2831).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.86 → $0.83 (-3.5% / 30d). 1 raised, 2 cut, 3 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 9.5% above current price.
0 positive, 2 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$188.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$428.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,697.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Closing this deal will show if Novanta can expand into high-growth surgical markets. It could boost revenue and margins.
Confirms:The deal closes in Q3 2026 if there are no regulatory delays.
Disproves:The deal is delayed or blocked because of regulatory issues.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for NOVT yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On June 8, 2026, the Company entered into a Securities Purchase Agreement (the “Purchase Agreement”) for a private placement (the “Private Placement”) with certain institutional and other accredited investors (each, a “Purchaser” and collectively, the “Purchasers”). The closing of the Private Placement (the “Closing”) is expected to occur on June 11, 2026, subject to the satisfaction of customary closing conditions. Pursuant to the Purchase Agreemen…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Electronic Equipment & Instruments.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
NOVT Novanta | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 55 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
KEYS Keysight Technologies | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 89 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
ROP Roper Technologies | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 94 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
TDY Teledyne Technologies | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 76 of 100 | full | moderate |
TRMB Trimble Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 93 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
7 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Information Technology names rated volatile grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=793).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLK
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Novanta aims to drive mid-single-digit organic revenue growth with new product launches and strong commercial execution.
Novanta is focused on improving operating income through strategic initiatives and cost management.
Novanta is committed to strategic capital allocation, including acquisitions to drive growth.
Why it matters: This report will show if Novanta is meeting its growth goals. Investors want to see strong revenue growth.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth exceeds 10% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth falls below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Improving operating income shows Novanta is managing costs better. This is key for long-term success.
Confirms:Operating income goes up by over 5% from Q1.
Disproves:Operating income goes down or stays the same from Q1.
Why it matters: This growth rate is important for showing Novanta's strength in a tough market.
Confirms:Q2 organic revenue growth is reported at 6% or higher.
Disproves:Q2 organic revenue growth falls below 6%.
Why it matters: This funding will help with the Riverpoint deal and future growth. Its success is important for stability.
Confirms:The private placement closes on June 11, 2026. The expected money will be received.
Disproves:The private placement fails to close or raises significantly less than $300 million.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Equity Purchase Agreement On June 8, 2026, Novanta Inc., a Canadian corporation (the “ Company ”), Novanta Medical Technologies Corp., a Delaware corporation and an indirect subsidiary of the Company (“ Buyer ”), Novanta Corporation, a Michigan corporation (“ Intermediate Parent ”, and together with the Company and the Buyer, the “ Buyer Parties ”), Runway Midco, LLC, a Delaware limited liability company (“ Seller ”), and Runway Buyer, LLC, a Delawa…
Unregistered Sales of Equity Securities The information contained in Item 1.01 01 of this Current Report on Form 8-K is incorporated by reference into this
Other Events. On June 9, 2026, the Company issued a press release announcing the pricing of the Private Placement described in
Regulation FD Disclosure. On June 9, 2026, the Company issued a press release announcing the Transaction. A copy of the press release is furnished with this Form 8-K and attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1. Also on June 9, 2026, the Company will hold a conference call to discuss the Transaction. A copy of the conference call presentation is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.2 and is also available on the Company’s website, https://www.novanta.com, in the Investor section. Exhibits 99.1 and 99.2 shall…