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Ralliant Corp (RAL)
NYSEInformation TechnologyElectronic ComponentsSnapshot 2026-07-06
Watch· this week
$69.28+1.35%
Close 2026-07-06 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
The bottom line
The thesis is that RAL's growth keeps compounding. Revenue grew 11% year over year, and the last quarter beat expectations. RAL trades at 29× P/E versus a peer median of 39×. This suggests the price reflects less growth than we forecast. If RAL cuts guidance after recently raising it, that could hurt credibility. Peer multiples imply a price about 5% above where it trades. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-07-06
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Information Technology
- Industry
- Electronic Components
- Market cap
- $7.65B
- Employees
- 7,000
- IPO date
- 2025-08-11
- Next earnings
- 2026-08-10
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 13 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $69.28. As of 2026-07-06. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Fair value· primary
$69.21
Range $65.00 – $102.70
vs price: +0% above
Method agreement : high · 13 methods
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
3-year
$116.45consensus
Range $103.69 – $145.92
vs price: -41% below
Method agreement : medium · 5 methods
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
5-year
$154.00consensus
Range $137.13 – $192.98
vs price: -55% below
Method agreement : high · 5 methods
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Cheap vs peersmedium confidence
At $68 RAL trades at 29× p/e, below its 39× p/e peer median. Our $73 fair value sits above the price. We hold it with medium confidence: our number sits above the analyst range. Analysts target $64–$67. Note: our $73 fair value sits above the entire analyst range ($64–$67). Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
29.1x
peer 39.1x · own history 29.0x
Premium
0.7x peer
1.0x its own history
Growth the price needs
-2%
our forecast 8%
Our fair value
$72.56
range $66.59 – $100.28
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The price sits about 2% below a flat-multiple fair value, while analysts forecast about 8% growth — in line with our forecast. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Compared to peers
29.5xP/E · peer median
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
Not enough signal yet.
Earnings quality
Not enough signal yet.
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
stable3 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Information Technology names rated stable grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=2543).
71st pctl · Information Technology
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Bullish11 analysts, 55% Buyfor period ending 2026-09-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $0.69 → $0.69 (-0.0% / 30d). 10 raised, 0 cut, 11 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 55% of analysts rate Buy.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: information technology is in maturing, with decelerating (~0.2 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): tailwind.Secular epoch: Growth by revenue growth · theme AI/accelerated-compute.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Provisional
- Earnings discipline
- strong
- Post-call reaction
- weak
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
as of 2026-07-06
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$150.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$331.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,179.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
elevatedas of 2026-07-06
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. This improvement is driven by the latest earnings beat, which indicates better-than-expected performance. There are no current threats impacting the thesis.
as of 2026-07-06
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideHigh confidenceQuartersactive 31d
Watch for operating income trends in Q2 results
Why it matters: Higher operating income shows the company controls costs well. This leads to more profit.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Operating income in Q2 shows a year-over-year increase of more than 10%.
Disproves:Operating income in Q2 falls or grows less than 5% compared to last year.
Management priorities
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for RAL yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth in IT sector dropping below median
- Watch for FOMC decisions impacting tech investment
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.63%, that would be a tailwind for RAL and other Tech names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
- If sector bellwethers like APH, GLW, and TEL keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Tech sector momentum should keep lifting RAL and other Tech names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
Downside triggers
- If RAL reverses and cuts guidance after recently raising (RAISED as of 2026-05-12), that's the worst kind of move: a credibility hit on top of the lower number. Stocks usually get punished disproportionately for this.
- If sector bellwethers like APH, GLW, and TEL start missing or guiding lower, the Tech tailwind helping RAL and other Tech names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If GDP growth slows materially from the current 2.7% (say, below 2%), it hits RAL and other Tech names harder than the average stock, since the sector is growth-sensitive.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-121mo agoItem 2.02
of this Current Report on Form 8-K and the press release attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing.
Earnings preannouncementnegative
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+21 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-07-06
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.