Vontier (VNT)
NYSEInformation TechnologyHardware, Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-09-09
$31.86-2.18%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NYSEInformation TechnologyHardware, Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-09-09
Broken: Primary pillar broken — Operating income at or above $134.8 million quarterly: operating income ~$147M vs $134.8M target.
Vontier steadily grows revenue, reaching about $750 million quarterly. Profit rises modestly, with operating income near $135 million. The company keeps dividend payments stable at $0.03 per share. Its valuation is cheap compared to peers, with a price-to-earnings ratio near 9.
Revenue growth is very slow, near zero percent. Profit gains are minimal and may stall. The recent selloff and soft guidance suggest risks to earnings. The company faces elevated risk and fragile quality signals.
The market prices in about zero revenue growth and a 44% discount to our fair value. Our fair value is well above the Street median, reflecting more optimism on earnings and growth than consensus.
Breaks if: dividend per share falls below $0.025
Breaks if: operating income falls below $130 million quarterly
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on revenue growth and operating income. The current thesis state is intact, supported by recent earnings performance, but faces challenges due to fragile earnings quality.
The market appears to price VNT as cheap compared to peers, with a significant expectations gap. This suggests that investors may be cautious about the company's execution quality despite its low valuation.
Management is on track with priorities to increase revenue growth and enhance operating income, although recent core sales growth has shown mixed results. The near-term risk is elevated, but the probability of missing estimates remains low.
The thesis hinges on several factors, including management's ability to maintain guidance, the potential for the Federal Reserve to cut rates, and the performance of key sector peers. Any negative guidance could significantly impact sentiment.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports the positive outlook. Additionally, Vontier raised its sales outlook, which reinforces revenue growth expectations. There are no new threats impacting the thesis.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Drive operating profit and margin expansion through cost savings and simplification initiatives.
Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Operating profit rose from $130.1M in 2026-Q1 to $146.7M in 2026-Q2 (+13%), with margin expanding from 17.6% in 2025-Q4 to 19.4% in 2026-Q2 (+180 bps). Management highlights cost savings and simplification initiatives as drivers. The trajectory is delivering with improving operating income and margin.
“Operating profit of $146.7 million increased 7.6% from prior year; margin increased 180 bps.”
“Operating profit of $134.8 million increased 3.6% from prior year; margin increased 40 bps.”
“Operating profit of $152.7 million increased 2.3% from prior year; margin decreased 30 bps.”
“Adjusted operating profit margin declined due to higher R&D and unfavorable mix.”
Breaks if: quarterly revenue falls below $741 million
Focus on core sales growth driven by strong demand in convenience retail and fuel dispensing equipment.
Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Core sales growth showed mixed results: increased 5.1% in 2025-Q4, 1.7% in 2026-Q1, but decreased slightly by 0.2% in 2026-Q2. Management consistently emphasizes growth in convenience retail and fuel dispensing markets. The trajectory shows mixed delivery with some quarters of growth and a slight decline in the most recent quarter.
“Core sales decreased 0.2% year-over-year; Environmental & Fueling Solutions sales increased 1.3%.”
“Core sales increased 1.7% year-over-year led by strong demand for convenience retail solutions.”
“Core sales increased 5.1% year-over-year led primarily by strong demand for convenience retail solutions.”
“The Company anticipates Sales to be slightly above the midpoint of guidance with Adjusted EPS near or at the high end.”
Over the next 1 to 3 years, VNT's performance will depend on its execution and external economic conditions. Not investment advice.