Vontier (VNT)

NYSEInformation TechnologyHardware, Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-10-23

$34.36-0.52%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Vontier’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.5%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

3.80 → 3.78 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 5 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 6 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q3
Revenue	$720M–$735M	—
EPS	$0.82–$0.86non-GAAP	—
Revenue growth	About 5%	—
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	795.04M
EPS	—	0.967
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	$3B–$3.05B	3.03B
EPS	$3.45–$3.55non-GAAP	3.495
Revenue growth	About 3%	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	3.07B
EPS	—	3.777

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Maintain dividend payments near $0.03 per share	The company keeps dividend payments stable at $0.03 per share.	Intact	dividend per share falls below $0.025	Dividend per share: $0.03 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~0.03 USD per share quarterly. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 6, 20260.025 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jul 3, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 9dc16586-93d7-4bfb-96e8-dbe487ed4a46. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 6 of last 6 quarters. Dividend per share has been consistently maintained at $0.025 each quarter from 2025-Q1 through 2026-Q2. Management has reiterated commitment to regular dividend payments. The trajectory is delivering stable dividend distributions. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Operating income at or above $134.8 million quarterly	Profit rises modestly, with operating income near $135 million.	Broken	operating income falls below $130 million quarterly	Operating income: $146.7M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=134.8 million USD quarterly. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 6, 2026146,700,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jul 3, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 9dc16586-93d7-4bfb-96e8-dbe487ed4a46. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Operating profit rose from $130.1M in 2026-Q1 to $146.7M in 2026-Q2 (+13%), with margin expanding from 17.6% in 2025-Q4 to 19.4% in 2026-Q2 (+180 bps). Management highlights cost savings and simplification initiatives as drivers. The trajectory is delivering with improving operating income and margin. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Quarterly revenue at or above $750 million	Vontier steadily grows revenue, reaching about $750 million quarterly.	Broken	quarterly revenue falls below $741 million	Revenue: $756.7M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=750.6 million USD quarterly. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 6, 2026756,700,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jul 3, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 9dc16586-93d7-4bfb-96e8-dbe487ed4a46. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Core sales growth showed mixed results: increased 5.1% in 2025-Q4, 1.7% in 2026-Q1, but decreased slightly by 0.2% in 2026-Q2. Management consistently emphasizes growth in convenience retail and fuel dispensing markets. The trajectory shows mixed delivery with some quarters of growth and a slight decline in the most recent quarter. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$3.78

$3.71 → $3.78 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$3.07B

$3.08B → $3.07B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$3.71	$3,075,104,944	5 / 6
2026-07-25	$3.71	$3,075,271,060	11 / 9
2026-07-26	$3.71	$3,075,104,944	5 / 6
2026-07-27	$3.71	$3,075,271,060	11 / 9
2026-07-28	$3.71	$3,075,104,944	5 / 6
2026-07-29	$3.71	$3,075,271,060	11 / 9
2026-07-30	$3.71	$3,075,271,060	11 / 9
2026-07-31	$3.71	$3,075,104,944	5 / 6
2026-08-01	$3.71	$3,075,104,944	5 / 6
2026-08-02	$3.71	$3,075,104,944	5 / 6
2026-08-03	$3.71	$3,075,271,060	11 / 9
2026-08-04	$3.71	$3,075,104,944	5 / 6
2026-08-05	$3.71	$3,075,271,060	11 / 9
2026-08-06	$3.71	$3,075,104,944	5 / 6
2026-08-08	$3.71	$3,075,104,944	5 / 6
2026-08-09	$3.75	$3,074,994,880	11 / 9
2026-08-10	$3.71	$3,075,104,944	5 / 6
2026-08-12	$3.71	$3,075,104,944	5 / 6
2026-08-13	$3.80	$3,079,548,680	11 / 9
2026-08-14	$3.71	$3,075,104,944	5 / 6
2026-08-15	$3.71	$3,075,104,944	5 / 6
2026-08-16	$3.71	$3,075,104,944	5 / 6
2026-08-17	$3.71	$3,075,104,944	5 / 6
2026-08-18	$3.71	$3,075,104,944	5 / 6
2026-08-19	$3.71	$3,075,104,944	5 / 6
2026-08-20	$3.79	$3,074,879,770	6 / 6
2026-08-21	$3.79	$3,074,879,770	6 / 6
2026-08-22	$3.79	$3,074,879,770	6 / 6
2026-08-23	$3.79	$3,074,879,770	6 / 6
2026-08-24	$3.79	$3,074,879,770	6 / 6
2026-08-25	$3.79	$3,074,879,770	6 / 6
2026-08-26	$3.79	$3,074,879,770	6 / 6
2026-08-27	$3.79	$3,074,879,770	6 / 6
2026-08-28	$3.79	$3,074,879,770	6 / 6
2026-08-29	$3.79	$3,074,879,770	6 / 6
2026-08-30	$3.79	$3,074,879,770	6 / 6
2026-08-31	$3.79	$3,074,879,770	6 / 6
2026-09-01	$3.79	$3,074,879,770	6 / 6
2026-09-02	$3.79	$3,074,879,770	6 / 6
2026-09-03	$3.81	$3,074,879,770	6 / 6
2026-09-04	$3.81	$3,074,879,770	6 / 6
2026-09-05	$3.81	$3,074,879,770	6 / 6
2026-09-06	$3.81	$3,074,879,770	6 / 6
2026-09-07	$3.81	$3,074,879,770	6 / 6
2026-09-08	$3.81	$3,074,879,770	6 / 6
2026-09-09	$3.81	$3,074,879,770	6 / 6
2026-09-10	$3.81	$3,074,879,770	6 / 6
2026-09-11	$3.80	$3,074,879,770	6 / 6
2026-09-12	$3.80	$3,074,879,770	6 / 6
2026-09-13	$3.80	$3,074,879,770	6 / 6
2026-09-14	$3.80	$3,074,879,770	6 / 6
2026-09-15	$3.80	$3,074,879,770	6 / 6
2026-09-16	$3.80	$3,073,379,770	6 / 6
2026-09-17	$3.80	$3,073,379,770	6 / 6
2026-09-18	$3.80	$3,073,379,770	6 / 6
2026-09-19	$3.80	$3,073,379,770	6 / 6
2026-09-20	$3.80	$3,073,379,770	6 / 6
2026-09-21	$3.80	$3,073,379,770	6 / 6
2026-09-22	$3.80	$3,073,379,770	6 / 6
2026-09-23	$3.80	$3,073,379,770	6 / 6
2026-09-24	$3.80	$3,073,379,770	6 / 6
2026-09-25	$3.80	$3,073,379,770	6 / 6
2026-09-26	$3.80	$3,073,379,770	6 / 6
2026-09-27	$3.80	$3,073,379,770	6 / 6
2026-09-28	$3.80	$3,073,379,770	6 / 6
2026-09-29	$3.78	$3,073,174,451	6 / 6
2026-09-30	$3.78	$3,073,174,451	6 / 6
2026-10-01	$3.78	$3,073,174,451	6 / 6
2026-10-02	$3.78	$3,073,174,451	6 / 6
2026-10-03	$3.78	$3,073,174,451	6 / 6
2026-10-04	$3.78	$3,073,174,451	6 / 6
2026-10-05	$3.78	$3,073,174,451	6 / 6
2026-10-06	$3.78	$3,073,174,451	6 / 6
2026-10-07	$3.78	$3,073,174,451	6 / 6
2026-10-08	$3.78	$3,071,924,451	6 / 6
2026-10-09	$3.78	$3,071,924,451	5 / 6
2026-10-10	$3.78	$3,067,342,760	5 / 6
2026-10-11	$3.78	$3,067,342,760	5 / 6
2026-10-12	$3.78	$3,067,342,760	5 / 6
2026-10-13	$3.78	$3,067,342,760	5 / 6
2026-10-14	$3.78	$3,066,582,163	5 / 6
2026-10-15	$3.78	$3,066,582,163	5 / 6
2026-10-16	$3.78	$3,066,582,163	5 / 6
2026-10-17	$3.78	$3,066,582,163	5 / 6
2026-10-18	$3.78	$3,066,582,163	5 / 6
2026-10-19	$3.78	$3,066,582,163	5 / 6
2026-10-20	$3.78	$3,066,582,163	5 / 6
2026-10-21	$3.78	$3,066,582,163	5 / 6
2026-10-22	$3.78	$3,066,582,163	5 / 6
2026-10-23	$3.78	$3,066,582,163	5 / 6
2026-10-24	$3.78	$3,066,582,163	5 / 6

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	9	4	1
2026-06-01	7	4	1
2026-07-01	6	4	1
2026-08-01	7	4	1
2026-09-01	6	4	1
2026-10-01	6	4	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 6 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Maintain dividend payments near $0.03 per shareDividend per share: $0.03 per share
Operating income at or above $134.8 million quarterlyPublished status: Broken
Quarterly revenue at or above $750 millionPublished status: Broken

Next proof point

Nov 5, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.2%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-35.3%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Vontier outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

VNT is a value-oriented industrial technology business with some improving operating performance, rather than a clear, steady compounder. Its multi-year view remains intact, though elevated risk and fragile earnings quality call for caution in how firmly that view is held.

What's priced into Vontier

VNT is cheap versus peers, but the valuation model has low confidence, so that comparison is uncertain. The expectations gap is negative, while the priced-in assessment says the current setup is justified and fragility is low; the evidence does not point to severe pessimism being fully reflected.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, sales growth is uneven: core sales rose in earlier quarters but slipped slightly in 2026-Q2. Operating profit and margins improved, supported by cost savings and simplification, while the latest reported event was an August earnings beat and a president transition followed in October. A guidance cut remains a key risk, and recent peer misses and a past deep miss keep earnings quality fragile.

What Vontier hinges on

The multi-year thesis hinges on management turning its repeated revenue-growth priority into steadier results while sustaining operating gains. Near term, a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative; Fed rate cuts or continued strong results and guidance from sector bellwethers could support the broader sector backdrop.