Reading VMI? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track VMI free→Reading VMI? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track VMI free→NYSEIndustrialsConglomeratesSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but management's recent track record has been fairly steady, and the company's capital stance is capital unfriendly. Earnings quality is mixed, and risk is moderate, while the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 4% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair. The company is not currently profitable, so the valuation relies on sales- and cash-based methods. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $556.56. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $557 VMI trades at 27× p/e, in line with its 24× p/e peer median. Our $534 fair value reflects that, high confidence. Analysts: $450–$600. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 4% near-term growth, in line with our forecast of about 0%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated strong grew net income 69% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=3696).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.33x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=4440).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $5.78 → $5.80 (+0.4% / 30d). 5 raised, 0 cut, 6 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 83% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 14.9% above current price.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
Market and fundamentals agree. Analysts are positioned bullishly on a fundamentally strong name.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$139.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$259.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,948.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Valuation label changed from 'fair' to 'full'.
Valuation changed. It rose to a label of "full." The sector backdrop fell. It is now a headwind. Risk remains moderate. Earnings quality and management are neutral.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: The industrials sector is slowing. Signs of growth could indicate a turnaround for Valmont.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth speeds up to over 10% compared to last year.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth continues to decline or stays below 5% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for VMI yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Valmont Industries Inc. previously reported the appointment of John Schwietz as Valmont’s Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer and Corporate Secretary, effective April 8, 2026, to succeed Thomas Liguori. On May 26, 2026, the Company entered into a separation and release agreement with Mr. Liguori specifying the terms of Mr. Liguori’…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$450.00 – $600.00 (median $501.00) · 3 analysts · as of 2026-05-28
Looks more expensive than peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
VMI Valmont Industries | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 72 of 100 | full | moderate |
PH Parker Hannifin | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 74 of 100 | full | moderate |
ITW Illinois Tool Works | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 88 of 100 | fair | moderate |
GWW W. W. Grainger | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 77 of 100 | full | moderate |
DOV Dover Corporation | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 64 of 100 | fair | low |
4 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=1113).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Valmont aims to increase its full-year 2026 EPS outlook, reflecting strong operational performance.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. EPS guidance raised to $21.50 to $23.50 for 2026. Diluted EPS increased 27.5% to $5.51 in 2026-Q1, compared to $4.32 in 2025-Q1, indicating delivering trajectory.
“We delivered a strong start to 2026, including record first-quarter earnings per share.”
“Looking ahead to 2026, we expect to achieve sales and earnings growth.”
“Given our results and the momentum across the organization, we’re raising our full-year earnings guidance.”
Valmont aims to achieve net sales between $4.2 and $4.4 billion for the full year 2026.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Net sales increased 6.2% to $1.03 billion in 2026-Q1, compared to $969 million in 2025-Q1. The trajectory shows progress towards the $4.2 to $4.4 billion target.
“Net sales increased 6.2% to $1.03 billion.”
Valmont is focused on improving operating income through strategic initiatives and cost management.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Operating income increased 21.3% to $155.6 million in 2026-Q1, compared to $128.3 million in 2025-Q1, indicating a delivering trajectory on this priority.
Why it matters: An increase in the EPS outlook would show stronger earnings potential for 2026.
Confirms:Management raises the 2026 EPS outlook. It is now above the current guidance.
Disproves:Management keeps the EPS outlook unchanged or lowers it.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show how well Valmont is managing in a slowing sector. Strong results could boost confidence.
Confirms:Q2 earnings report shows revenue growth above 8% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 earnings report shows revenue growth below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Hitting this sales target would indicate strong demand and growth in 2026.
Confirms:Net sales for Q2 reach or exceed $4.2 billion.
Disproves:Net sales for Q2 fall below $4.0 billion.
Why it matters: Steel costs affect margins. Changes can impact profits and pricing plans.
Confirms:Steel costs rise much higher than current futures market expectations.
Disproves:Steel costs stabilize or decline, improving margin outlook.
Why it matters: Strong growth in Infrastructure sales boosts Valmont's total revenue and profit outlook.
Confirms:Infrastructure segment sales grow more than 5% year over year in Q2.
Disproves:Infrastructure segment sales growth falls below 2% year over year.
Why it matters: Agriculture sales trends show how Valmont deals with market softness and price pressures.
Confirms:Agriculture segment sales decline more than 10% year over year in Q2.
Disproves:Agriculture segment sales stay steady or grow each year.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. Valmont Industries, Inc. issued a press release on April 21, 2026 announcing its financial results for its fiscal quarter ended March 28, 2026. The press release is furnished with this Form 8-K as Exhibit 99.1. The information in
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. (c) Valmont Industries, Inc. previously reported the appointment of John Schwietz as Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Corporate Secretary. Information with respect to Mr. Schwietz’s compensation as approved by the Human Resources Committee is set forth on Exhibit 99.1 which is incorporated herein by reference.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. The Board of Directors of Valmont Industries, Inc. appointed John Schwietz as Valmont’s Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Corporate Secretary, effective April 8, 2026. Mr. Schwietz succeeds Thomas Liguori. Mr. Schwietz, age 44, since joining Valmont in 2009 has held roles of increasing responsibility spanning finance, business d…
Changes in Registrant’s Certifying Accountant (a) Appointment of New Independent Registered Public Accounting Firm On March 3, 2026, following the conclusion of a process managed by the Audit Committee of the Board of Directors of Valmont Industries, Inc. (“the Company”), the Audit Committee approved the appointment of KPMG LLP (“KPMG”) as the Company’s independent registered public accounting firm beginning with the year ending December 26, 2026 and related interim periods, subject to the co…
“We expect to achieve sales and earnings growth driven by strong Infrastructure demand.”
“Operating income increased 21.3% to $155.6 million or 15.1% of net sales.”
“Operating income decreased 2.9% to $116.5 million or 11.2% of net sales.”
“Operating income increased 12.5% to $141.5 million or 13.5% of net sales.”