Reading VCEL? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track VCEL free→Reading VCEL? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track VCEL free→NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, and earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. However, risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, VCEL is above typical for the sector. Peer multiples imply a price about 174% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified, as it is rich on today's multiple, but the three-year horizon reads cheaper once expected earnings growth is included. The read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $38.29. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $38 VCEL trades at 7× p/s, below its 9× p/s peer median. Our $14 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Analysts: $42–$70. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 175% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 24%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Flags: expensive valuation, a turbulent sector regime (Heating).
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated strong grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=2344).
Over the trailing year it converted 2.87x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Health Care names rated robust grew net income 60% of the time over the next year (vs 48% for the rest of the cohort, n=1703).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $-0.04 → $-0.03 (+8.6% / 30d). 0 raised, 0 cut, 5 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 88% of analysts rate Buy.
Market and fundamentals agree. Analysts are positioned bullishly on a fundamentally strong name.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$201.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$502.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,230.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: The next earnings report will show how well Vericel is doing financially. It will also show if the company is growing.
Confirms one read:The earnings report shows that revenue is growing. It also shows better financial numbers.
Confirms the other:The earnings report shows falling revenue or bigger losses. This could be a warning sign.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for VCEL yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
No material events in the last 90 days.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$42.00 – $70.00 (median $46.00) · 3 analysts · as of 2026-05-08
Looks more expensive than peers.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Biotechnology.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
VCEL Vericel | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 82 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
ABBV AbbVie | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 85 of 100 | fair | low |
AMGN Amgen | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 78 of 100 | full | moderate |
GILD Gilead Sciences | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 100 of 100 | fair | moderate |
VRTX Vertex Pharmaceuticals | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 80 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
Not enough signal yet.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on achieving MACI revenue growth of 20% or more for consecutive quarters.
Aim for another year of high revenue and profit growth with increased cash generation.
Increase Burn Care revenue with updated guidance and strategic initiatives.
Why it matters: Maintaining strong MACI revenue growth signals ongoing demand and market acceptance. This is key for overall performance.
Confirms:MACI revenue growth remains above 20% year over year for the next quarter.
Disproves:MACI revenue growth drops below 20% year over year.
Why it matters: Approval would grow MACI's market. This would greatly increase revenue.
Confirms:FDA grants approval for MACI to treat cartilage defects in the ankle.
Disproves:FDA denies or delays approval for MACI ankle treatment.
Why it matters: A drop below 10% signals a slowdown in the sector's growth phase. This could impact Vericel's performance.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth reported below 10% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth remains at or above 10% year over year.
Why it matters: A positive cash flow shows better financial health. It also means better operations.
Confirms:Operating cash flow turns positive and shows growth compared to previous quarters.
Disproves:Operating cash flow is still negative or gets worse.
Why it matters: Strong growth in Burn Care revenue shows the effectiveness of the product and market expansion.
Confirms:Burn Care revenue growth exceeds 50% year over year in the next quarter.
Disproves:Burn Care revenue growth falls below 40% year over year.
Why it matters: If revenue growth falls below its median, it could signal a slowdown in the sector.
Confirms:Reported revenue growth drops below the median growth rate for the sector.
Disproves:Revenue growth remains at or above the median growth rate for the sector.